IN THIS ISSUE
Good morning. Mark here.
South Florida made one of the most interesting hires in the Group of Five this cycle, and we're breaking it down in this week's Behind the Numbers. Brian Hartline has the Ohio State pedigree, a $21 million contract, and 31 portal transfers already in the door. The one thing he doesn't have? Any head coaching experience. We rated his pressure and ranked him among American Conference coaches.
On the Radar: The new recruiting arms race isn't NIL. It's content. USC is spending eight figures on hype videos and social posts while Tulsa's viral "Portal House" campaign landed 22 transfers in a single day. Also: Florida State's "surplus" isn't what it looks like (football profit dropped $24 million in one year), international basketball recruits are underperforming traditional freshmen by a wide margin, and NILnomics explores how Indiana is making a title run without being a top spender.
Busy week. Let's get into it.
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On February 12th at 4:00 pm Eastern, I'm joining the Targeting Winners podcast for a live YouTube breakdown of the college football coaching landscape. We're talking tiers, trends, job security, and which coaches are set up for success in 2026 before a single game is played.
Bring your questions. We're covering the coaches you love, the coaches you love to hate, and everything in between.
Hit reply and send us your questions. We'll cover as many as we can during the show.
BEST LINKS
The New Recruiting Arms Race Isn't NIL. It's Content. And USC Is Spending Eight Figures on It.
College athletic departments are now running full-blown production studios. And nobody's doing it bigger than USC.
The Trojans' creative team operates on a "close to eight-figure" budget with roughly 20 full-time staffers. They won an Emmy for a 2024 football hype video. In December 2025 alone, they cranked out nearly 1,700 posts.
Florida has tripled its creative team to 20 employees. Salaries are up 50% since 2021. Total investment is "well into the seven figures."
But the wildest ROI might be at Tulsa. Their "Portal House" social campaign hit 2.5 million impressions in a single day and helped land 22 transfer commitments.
This is the new recruiting arms race. It's not just NIL money. It's content.
Florida State's $3.76M "Surplus" Isn't What It Looks Like. Football Profit Dropped $24 Million in One Year.
Florida State reported $211.95M in revenue against $208.19M in expenses for FY25. On paper, that's a $3.76M surplus.
Look closer.
Football's profit collapsed from $29.8M to $5.2M. Men's basketball swung from a $7.1M profit to a $483K deficit. Contributions dropped $6.7M. Expenses surged $38.4M year-over-year.
FSU is already getting ahead of the narrative. In an email to media outlets, the school noted the NCAA's financial survey "is not a complete representation" of their operating position and that the surplus "should not be interpreted as a net operating profit."
The real story comes next year. The FY26 report will be the first full look at FSU's finances under House v. NCAA, when direct athlete compensation hits the books.
That's when we'll know if the Seminoles are actually stable or just treading water.
College Basketball's International Recruit Experiment Has a Problem. Traditional Freshmen Are Outperforming Them.
Roughly 75 international pros entered Division I basketball this season. The results are in: most of them are losing the battle to traditional freshmen.
Men's hoops analytics guru Evan Miyakawa ran the numbers using his "Box BPR" metric. The top 50 traditional freshmen average +5.1. Only 11 international imports match that mark.
The gap widens at the top of rosters. Twenty-five traditional freshmen rank among the top three producers on Power Conference teams. Just nine international first-years do.
The most damning stat: 28 of the 50 "most hyped" international signees, including players at Kansas State, Kentucky, and Purdue, currently sit outside the top 1500 players nationally. Only 30% outperformed Miyakawa's conservative preseason projections.
A few programs struck gold. Virginia's Thijs De Ridder and Johann GrĆ¼nloh have been elite. But for most, the overseas pipeline is producing anonymity, not impact.
Indiana Is Making a Title Run Without Being a Top Spender. Here's What the Finances Actually Look Like.
Everyone's talking about Indiana football's rise. Almost nobody's looking at the money behind it.
NILnomics dug into the Hoosiers' financials and found something interesting: Indiana has never been one of the biggest spenders in college athletics. Yes, they're fully spending up to the $20.5 million revenue share cap. But their overall athletic budget tells a different story.
From FY23 to FY24, Indiana's athletic budget jumped from $139 million to $177 million. That's a 27% increase. But here's the catch: that's overall athletic spending. For a school where men's basketball has historically eaten a disproportionate share of the budget, football's slice could look very different.
The FY25 data, which would reveal the real picture of this title run, still hasn't been released.
Sometimes the most interesting story isn't who's spending the most. It's who's getting the most out of what they spend.
BEHIND THE NUMBERS
Brian Hartline Has a $21 Million Contract, a Top-15 Portal Class, and Zero Head Coaching Experience. We Rated His Pressure a 3 Out of 10.
Alex Golesh turned South Florida from a 4-win program into a 9-3 team with a College Football Playoff (CFP) ranking. Then he left for Auburn, taking 14 starters with him.
USF hired Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline to replace him.
Eight seasons with the Buckeyes
A national championship
92-11 record
Widely considered the best wide receiver developer in college football
His first move: attack the transfer portal. Thirty-one additions, first in the American Athletic Conference. The headliners:
Two quarterbacks from LSU and Mississippi State
A former Ohio State five-star linebacker
Defensive additions from Florida, Minnesota, Kansas State, and BYU
USF backed him with the richest contract in program history.
Six years, $21 million guaranteed
A staff budget that jumped from $4.5 million to $6.2 million
The catch: Hartline has never been a head coach.
Not at any level. His entire coaching career took place in one building at Ohio State. Every skill that separates a coordinator from a CEO is a projection, not a data point.
The ceiling is top 3 in the American Conference. The floor depends on whether 31 new players and a green quarterback room can gel before September.
On the Coaches Hot Seat pressure scale, he enters at a 3 out of 10. But if the Bulls drop to 6-6 while Auburn wins with their old quarterback, that number moves fast.
Itās good. It might be great. Weāll know by Thanksgiving.
THATāS A WRAP
Friday we're back with more new hire profiles. The coaching carousel dropped a lot of first-time head coaches into interesting situations this cycle, and we're breaking down who's set up to succeed and who's already behind.
Questions? Thoughts? Hit reply. I read everything.
See you Friday.
ā Mark
