BEST LINKS

Michigan and USC just threw cold water on the Big Ten's private equity deal.

And they're not being subtle about it.

ESPN's Dan Wetzel reports the two powerhouse programs held a call with their trustees to discuss the proposed deal—and their shared conclusion was basically: "This is a terrible idea."

Here's the problem they identified: The deal doesn't actually solve anything.

Athletic departments are hemorrhaging money because costs keep soaring. Facilities arms races, NIL, transfer portal chaos, expanded playoffs—it all adds up. So the Big Ten's solution is to bring in private equity investors for a quick cash injection.

Translation: "We're going to sell off pieces of the conference to pay today's bills."

Michigan and USC looked at this and said, "Why would we give up equity for a Band-Aid?"

Both schools believe there are better funding options out there—ones with superior terms that don't require handing over ownership stakes to outside investors. Their position is simple: if Big Ten schools need money, fine. But get it on the most favorable terms possible without selling the farm.

A conference-wide call with presidents and ADs was tentatively scheduled for Thursday, but it might get pushed back. Apparently, there's "more work to be done" if the Big Ten wants to win over its two most skeptical members.

Good luck with that.

[Link to full article]

Indiana has locked up Curt Cignetti through 2033

Eight years. $11.6 million per year.

And honestly? They might be getting a bargain.

Two years ago, Indiana football was a punchline. A program that occasionally stumbled into a bowl game and called it a successful season. Then Cignetti showed up and everything changed.

His record at Indiana: 17-2.

That's not a typo.

The Hoosiers made the College Football Playoff last year. They're ranked No. 3 in the country right now—the highest ranking in program history. They just beat No. 3 Oregon on the road, which is IU's first-ever road win against a top-5 team.

Indiana is selling out games. Memorial Stadium, which used to have more empty seats than fans, sold out its entire 2025 Big Ten slate.

This isn't a feel-good story. This is a complete program transformation happening in real time.

IU President Pamela Whitten said it best: "Cig is a winner." Athletic Director Scott Dolson called his accomplishments "nothing short of remarkable."

Translation: "Whatever he wants, he gets."

Smart move, Indiana.

[Link to Announcement]

As you know, Penn State fired James Franklin

The cost? Somewhere between $45-50 million.

And Athletic Director Pat Kraft made one thing crystal clear: Penn State Athletics is covering every penny. Not the university. The athletic department.

Multiple reports put the buyout around $48-49 million, paid out in $8 million yearly installments through 2030. There's also a clause requiring Franklin to look for another job in coaching or broadcasting—and if his new gig pays less than $8 million per year, Penn State only owes him the difference.

But here's what matters: Penn State didn't blink.

Kraft wouldn't get into the specifics of how they're structuring the payments, but he was emphatic about the message. "This is an Athletics issue. So we in Athletics are covering all the costs. I want that to be known."

Translation: "We're serious about winning, and we don't care what it costs."

This is the new era of college football. Ten-year contracts worth $80+ million are the norm now. Brian Kelly at LSU, Lincoln Riley at USC, Kirby Smart at Georgia—they all signed deals like this. Some worked out. Others, like Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M and Mel Tucker at Michigan State, ended in expensive divorces.

Penn State just joined that club.

And Kraft's reasoning? "We're capable of greatness. We have made significant investments in this program. We compete in the best conference in the country, and we have the best fans and alums in the country."

In other words: they're more afraid of losing football games than spending money.

Nice job by the Penn State student newspaper, the Daily Collegian: [Link to full article]

San Francisco Athletic Director Larry Williams passed away yesterday morning while working out on campus.

He was 62 years old.

Williams collapsed at War Memorial Gym at the Sobrato Center. He leaves behind his wife Laura, five children, and several grandchildren.

Named San Francisco's athletic director in August 2022, Williams saw his role as more than a job—he called it a vocation. "USF represents to me the almost perfect combination of things I cherish," he said at the time. "No. 1, it's the Catholic identity. No. 2, it's the deep educational mission. And No. 3, it's athletic participation in an environment that very specifically includes 1 and 2."

Before San Francisco, Williams had a remarkable career. He was a two-time All-American football player at Notre Dame, played eight years in the NFL with the Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints, and New England Patriots, and earned a law degree from the University of San Diego while still playing professionally. After retiring from football in 1993, he practiced law before returning to Notre Dame in 1999 and eventually becoming athletic director at the University of Portland in 2004.

Williams started each day with contemplative prayer, Scripture reading, and reflection. Those who knew him said his Catholic faith wasn't just something he believed—it shaped how he led and how he served others.

Stephanie Shrieve-Hawkins, San Francisco's deputy athletics director, has been named interim athletic director. The university will share information about services and opportunities to remember Williams when available.

[Link]

GAMES WE’RE FOLLOWING THIS WEEK

Florida State Averages 536 Yards Per Game. Here's Why 28% Of Those Stats Are Fake—And Why They Lose At Stanford Saturday Night

Game: Florida State @ Stanford

Game Time: Saturday @10:30 pm EDT

Game Channel: ESPN

Florida State's offense looks unstoppable on paper.

They average 536.5 yards per game, lead the nation in explosive plays, and score points in bunches. Bettors see those numbers and think Saturday's trip to Stanford (2-4) should be a cakewalk.

Here's what the stats don't tell you:

• 1,504 of those yards came against an FCS team and the worst MAC defense in football

• Remove the cupcakes and FSU averages 400 yards against real competition

• They're 0-3 in ACC play with three straight losses in close games

The Seminoles aren't explosive—they're inflated.

Now they have to fly 2,500 miles across the country for a 10:30 PM EDT kickoff (7:30 PM local). By the fourth quarter, FSU's players will be operating on body clocks approaching midnight while Stanford plays normal Saturday evening football.

This is the great equalizer.

FSU has more talent. Their athletes are better across the board. In a neutral-site noon game, they probably win by double digits.

But talent doesn't matter when you're exhausted, jet-lagged, and playing football at what feels like midnight after a five-hour flight. Add in FSU's collapsing defense (dropped from 18th to 82nd nationally in stop rate) and their pattern of folding in close ACC games, and suddenly Stanford's 2-0 home record starts looking dangerous.

The Seminoles should win this game.

But "should" gets neutralized at 10:30 PM Eastern time, 2,500 miles from home, against a desperate opponent who's rested after a bye week.

Stanford 27, Florida State 24.

The cross-country kickoff exposes what the inflated stats have been hiding all along.

California vs. North Carolina Proves There Are Two Ways To Be Terrible At Football

Game: North Carolina @ Stanford

Game Time: Friday @10:30 pm EDT

Game Channel: ESPN

Most people think all bad teams are bad in the same way.

They're wrong.

Tonight, California (4-2) hosts North Carolina (2-3) in a matchup that perfectly illustrates the two distinct flavors of football failure: creative chaos and systematic incompetence.

Cal: The Creative Catastrophe

California has perfected the art of inventing new ways to lose football games.

They got shut out 0-34 by San Diego State—a team that went 3-9 last year. They scored 21 points against Duke and still lost by 24. They beat an FCS team and acted like playoff contenders. The Golden Bears are chaos incarnate. They'll drive 90 yards, reach the 5-yard line, and then throw three straight incompletions. Or fumble. Or commit a penalty that erases the entire drive.

This is inspired incompetence.

UNC: The Systematic Disaster

North Carolina, on the other hand, hired Bill Belichick—the greatest coach in NFL history—and somehow made their offense worse.

The Tar Heels average 11 points per game against Power 5 opponents. They scored 9 points against UCF. Nine. They're not creatively bad. They're just fundamentally broken. Their offense doesn't work. Their defense can't stop anyone. There's no chaos, no creativity—just consistent, predictable failure.

This is boring incompetence.

The Lesson

When you watch Cal and UNC on Friday night, you're not just watching two bad teams. You're watching a masterclass in the spectrum of failure. Cal shows us that even in losing, there can be creativity and surprise. UNC shows us that sometimes, despite having all the resources and talent in the world, you can still be boringly, systematically terrible.

One team is entertainingly bad. The other is just sad.

Final prediction: Cal 24, UNC 10 (with 40% confidence that something weirder happens)

Welcome to Friday night Pac-12... wait, ACC... wait, who even knows anymore? This is college football in 2025, where nothing makes sense and the points don't matter unless you're betting the under.

Enjoy the trainwreck.

The Bush Push Was 20 Years Ago. USC Is Due For Another Heartbreaker At Notre Dame—Except This Time, The Trojans Are On The Wrong End: 30-27

Game: USC @ Notre Dame

Game Time: Saturday @4:30 pm EDT

Game Channel: NBC

USC is averaging 552 yards per game and Jayden Maiava leads the nation with a 93.5 QBR.

The Trojans look unstoppable. But here's what nobody is talking about: USC's first two games were against Missouri State (an FCS team in its first year at FBS) and Georgia Southern (a weak Sun Belt team). Remove those cupcake games, and USC's offense drops to 430-440 yards per game against Power 4 competition.

Not so scary anymore.

Notre Dame Has Been Battle-Tested. USC Has Been Stat-Padding.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame opened by losing to #10 Miami (24-27) and #16 Texas A&M (40-41)—both by a combined 4 points.

Every single opponent Notre Dame has faced is Power 4 or better. The Irish have played two top-16 teams and lost by a field goal and a point. USC beat an FCS team 73-13 and a Sun Belt team 59-20.

One team is ready for this moment.

The Common Opponent Test Proves Everything

Both teams played Purdue.

• Notre Dame won 56-30

• USC won 33-17

• Against the same opponent, Notre Dame scored 23 more points

• Against the same opponent, Notre Dame gained 180 more yards

When the competition was equal, Notre Dame dominated.

USC's Inflated Offense Meets Notre Dame's Elite Defense

Saturday, USC walks into South Bend and faces Notre Dame's 6th-ranked defensive line.

A deep 6-man rotation that will bring fresh pass rushers all game long. The Irish allow just 106.2 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry. USC's inflated ground attack (226 yards/game against cupcakes) will hit a wall.

And 20 years after the Bush Push broke Notre Dame's heart, the Irish finally get their revenge.

Final Score: Notre Dame 30, USC 27

The Trojans' magic number run ends in South Bend.

THAT’S A WRAP

This weekend, three coaches on our Hot Seat Rankings are fighting for their jobs.

Norvell at Florida State. Belichick at North Carolina. Wilcox at Cal.

But here's what nobody is talking about: they're not the only ones in trouble.

Tuesday, we drop our Week 9 Hot Seat Rankings—and we're spotlighting two coaches who should be terrified right now:

• One is coaching on a contract that expires in 2027 with zero movement toward an extension. Translation: his athletic director has already made a decision, and it's not good.

• The other? We're hearing rumblings from inside the program. Quiet conversations. Strategic leaks. The kind of whispers that happen right before a program starts shopping for a replacement.

These aren't rumors.

These are warning signs.

And if you're not paying attention, you're going to miss the moment when the dominoes start falling.

[Check out our current Hot Seat Rankings here]

We'll see you Tuesday with the coaches everyone is about to be talking about.