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- 5 College Football Coaches Who Won't Survive 2025 (And The $10+ Million In Buyouts That Prove Programs Would Rather Pay Than Keep Losing)
5 College Football Coaches Who Won't Survive 2025 (And The $10+ Million In Buyouts That Prove Programs Would Rather Pay Than Keep Losing)
See The Complete Preseason Coaches Hot Seat Rankings: All 136 FBS Coaches Ranked By Pressure, Plus Their Salaries And Win-Loss Records That Tell The Story


IN THIS ISSUE
Deep Dives: The 5 Coaches Who Won't Survive 2025
Here's what nobody wants to admit:
By January 2026, at least 3 of these coaches will be gone.
Sonny Cumbie at Louisiana Tech? He's 11-26 over three years with a $1.5 million buyout waiting. Brent Venables at Oklahoma? He faces 8 ranked opponents after going 6-7 in his SEC debut. Trent Dilfer at UAB? The former NFL quarterback is 7-17 with zero road wins and a $2.4 million mistake athletic directors pretend isn't happening.
We break down the exact buyout numbers, contract details, and why being a "big name" means nothing when you can't win games.
The Venmo Problem Nobody's Teaching Student-Athletes
Student-athletes are creating evidence of NCAA violations.
One Venmo transaction at a time.
Your payment history is public by default. Every joke, every "thanks for the hookup," every casual note between friends becomes a digital paper trail that investigators can use against you. Oklahoma's John Mateer just learned this the hard way.
The solution takes 30 seconds to implement. But nobody's teaching it.

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Your Venmo History Is Public By Default. For Student-Athletes, That's A Compliance Risk.
Here's something nobody talks about in college sports.
Your Venmo history is public by default. And student-athletes are accidentally creating NCAA violation evidence one transaction at a time. Oklahoma's John Mateer just learned this the hard way when his payment history came under scrutiny, but he won't be the last.
Think about it.
Every time you pay someone through Venmo, you're required to add a note. "Coffee." "Uber." "Thanks for dinner." Seems harmless, right? Wrong. When your profile isn't private, those innocent notes become a digital paper trail that can end your career.
The Problem Is Bigger Than You Think
Louisville Cybersecurity Laboratory Director Roman Yampolskiy puts it bluntly:
"Public financial transaction histories can reveal sensitive behavioral data. For high-profile athletes, these records can expose patterns of spending, locations, and relationships, making them targets for scams, blackmail, or unwanted public scrutiny."
Here's what student-athletes don't realize:
Your Venmo transactions show WHO you're paying
WHEN you're paying them
WHERE you were when you made the payment
WHAT you paid them for (based on your note)
A joke between friends can become evidence of an NCAA violation when viewed by investigators.
The NCAA Compliance Nightmare
Student-athletes operate under strict rules about what they can and can't receive.
But Venmo notes like "thanks for the hookup" or "covering me again" suddenly look like payment for impermissible benefits when taken out of context. What seemed like casual humor among friends becomes career-ending evidence under NCAA scrutiny.
Vahid Behzadan from New Haven's Tagliatela College of Engineering nails the core issue:
"It's a stark reminder of how quickly a digital 'paper trail' can spiral out of control. What might seem like casual or humorous labeling among friends can take on an entirely different meaning when viewed by a national audience."
The Simple Fix Nobody Is Teaching
The solution isn't complicated.
Set everything to private:
Make your transaction history private
Hide your friend list
Turn off public search
Think before you type:
Avoid jokes in payment notes
No slang that could be misinterpreted
Keep descriptions boring and factual
Review settings each season:
Privacy settings change
Apps update their defaults
What was private yesterday might be public today
Why This Matters Beyond Sports
This isn't just about student-athletes.
Anyone can fall victim to public financial data. Your spending patterns reveal where you live, who you associate with, and what your habits are. For athletes with high profiles and compliance obligations, the stakes are just higher.
The lesson applies to everyone: your digital footprint is permanent, public, and more revealing than you think.
Your Venmo history is telling a story about you.
Make sure it's the story you want the world to read.
Read more about student-athlete cybersecurity practices at Front Office Sports

COACHES HOT SEAT PRESEASON TOP 5
Deep Dives: The 5 Coaches Who Won't Survive 2025
These are our preseason rankings.
The starting point for tracking coaching pressure all season long.
Every coach occupies their spot heading into Week 1. But here's the thing—these rankings are dynamic. They move every single week based on wins, losses, and the political reality inside each program.
Someone in our Top 5 can win their way down the list. It's equally possible for a coach ranked 100th out of 136 to find themselves in serious trouble by October.
The hot seat never stays still.
That's why you need to check back every Tuesday during football season. We'll show you who's trending down (breathing easier) and who's trending up (heading for trouble).
Because in college football, your job security changes faster than a fumble recovery.
Here are the 5 coaches starting the season in the most danger:
1. Why Sonny Cumbie Owns the Hottest Seat in College Football This Season

Louisiana Tech’s head coach is on the brink. Will Year Four bring a miracle, or mark the end?
Everyone pretends to be shocked when a coach gets fired after three straight losing seasons.
But the truth? The writing was on the wall the whole time.
Cumbie enters Year Four at Louisiana Tech with an 11–26 record and a winning percentage of .297.
That’s not rebuilding—that’s sinking.
Our preseason Hot Seat Rating puts him at 0.574. On our scale, 1.0 means “meeting expectations.” Anything below signals mounting pressure.
Translation: Cumbie’s been underwater since Day One.
The bigger problem is the trajectory.
Three consecutive losing seasons. No recruiting momentum. A fan base that watched Skip Holtz deliver consistent winning not long ago. Patience evaporates when the past still lingers in memory.
Coaches in this spot rarely recover.
By Year Four, you either show progress—or the program shows you the door.
Unless Cumbie delivers a miracle turnaround in 2025, his seat isn’t just hot.
It’s burning.
Buyout:
Buyout Clause: If Louisiana Tech terminates the contract, they are responsible for paying 75% of the remaining salary. This payment is spread out over the remaining years of the contract.
Current Buyout Estimate: Based on the contract ending after the 2026 season (which runs through January 2027), the estimated buyout is around $2 million as of July 2025.
Cumbie's contract also includes incentives for achieving goals such as winning the Conference USA championship or reaching a bowl game.
Analysis
Sonny Cumbie's current contract details indicate a buyout structured around the remaining salary rather than a single lump sum payment. With his contract running through the 2026 season, any decision to part ways before then would involve Louisiana Tech paying a portion of the remaining value over time. Cumbie's job security has been a topic of discussion due to the team's performance, as highlighted in July 2025 by CBS Sports.
What would the buyout be if he is terminated at the end of the 2025 season?
If Sonny Cumbie were terminated by Louisiana Tech at the end of the 2025 season (January 2026), the buyout amount would be
$1.5 million.
Here's a breakdown of the calculation:
Sonny Cumbie's contract at Louisiana Tech is a 5-year, $4.85 million deal that runs through January 2027.
His salary is $1 million for the final three years of the contract.
If terminated at the end of the 2025 season (January 2026), there would be two years remaining on his contract (the 2026 season and the portion running through January 2027).
The contract's buyout clause states that if Louisiana Tech terminates the contract, they are responsible for paying 75% of the remaining salary.
Therefore, the remaining salary for the 2026 season and through January 2027 would be $2 million ($1 million per year x 2 years).
The buyout would be 75% of $2 million, which equals $1.5 million.
The buyout payment would be spread out over the remaining years of the contract.
Check out our complete Sonny Cumbie profile here.
2. The Six-Win Ultimatum: Why Scott Satterfield’s Job—and Cincinnati’s Future—Hangs in the Balance In 2025

Scott Satterfield is out of time.
After two bruising, back-to-back losing seasons, Cincinnati’s head coach faces twelve Saturdays with everything on the line.
He’s trailing the ghost of Luke Fickell—a 53-10 legend whose playoff run reshaped the program’s identity. Now, nine months removed from five straight losses and high-profile staff departures, Satterfield’s .333 win rate flashes trouble for a fanbase starved for relevance.
Every decision is under the microscope. Satterfield knows the numbers and feels the pressure—right down to his buyout clause.
Brendan Sorsby must cut the turnovers. Six wins or more means bowl eligibility. Anything less might mean packing bags.
For a proud program, mediocrity isn’t an option—and in 2025, “hot seat” might not be hot enough.
Buyout:
If Satterfield is fired before Dec. 31, 2025 (the end of Year 3), he will receive 100 percent of the remaining base and supplemental compensation pro-rated. If he is fired after Dec. 31, 2025, he will receive 70 percent of the remaining base and supplemental compensation pro-rated.
Let’s break this down:
First, let's establish the salary structure for his six-year Cincinnati contract, which runs through December 31, 2028:
Year 1 (2023): $3.5 million
Year 2 (2024): $3.6 million
Year 3 (2025): $3.7 million
Year 4 (2026): $3.8 million
Year 5 (2027): $3.9 million
Year 6 (2028): $4.0 million
Buyout if Cincinnati terminates Scott Satterfield without cause
The terms state that if he is fired before or on December 31, 2025, he receives 100% of the remaining base and supplemental compensation pro-rated. If fired after December 31, 2025, he receives 70% of the remaining base and supplemental compensation pro-rated.
Here are the calculations for August 18, 2025 (current date) and December 31, 2025:

Our full preview of Cincinnati and Scott Satterfield is here.
3. Joe Moorhead's Statistical Masterpiece of Losing

Joe Moorhead has cracked the code.
He's discovered how to make college football statistics look respectable while losing games at an alarming rate. His Akron program has become a laboratory for this phenomenon—a place where 378 passing yards and four touchdowns somehow equal an 11-point loss.
The numbers that should mean victory:
Ben Finley throws for 378 yards and four touchdowns
Akron outgains Buffalo 452-390 in total yards
Dominates passing yards 378-210
Wins third-down conversions 43% to 23%
The reality that happens: Buffalo leads 38-7 before Akron remembers football exists.
This isn't an anomaly. Moorhead's teams have lost 10 one-score games in two years, including five by a field goal or less. They generate competitive statistics but consistently fail when games hang in the balance.
With a 0.659 Hot Seat Rating™ and an 8-28 record over three seasons, Moorhead has perfected the art of moral victories. His offensive schemes produce yards and touchdowns. His players post impressive individual numbers. His team's statistics suggest competence.
But competence and winning are different sports entirely.
The cruel mathematics: When you have explosive receivers, a productive quarterback, and a reliable kicker, yet still struggle to win games, the problem isn't talent—it's execution under pressure.
Moorhead was supposed to be the offensive mastermind who would finally solve Akron's perpetual losing problem.
Instead, he's become the poster child for why coordinating success and leading it require entirely different skill sets.
Buyout
Moorhead’s buyout details are undisclosed.
Read more on Joe Moorhead and Akron football here.
4. Brent Venables Faces 8 Top 25 Teams In 2025. Here's Why This Will Be His Last Season At Oklahoma

Most people think coaching success is about X's and O's.
They're wrong.
The SEC Doesn't Care About Your Resume
Brent Venables was Oklahoma's defensive coordinator, then became Clemson's defensive mastermind. He helped build championship teams. His resume screamed "elite coach."
Then he returned to Oklahoma as head coach.
His first SEC season? 6-7. The Sooners scored just 24 points per game—their lowest since the 1990s. They didn't just lose games. They got outclassed by teams that understood something Venables didn't.
Here's What He Missed
The SEC isn't about talent alone. It's about surviving an arms race where every week tests your program's identity.
Oklahoma could get away with recruiting misses in the Big 12. One bad quarter in the SEC against LSU or Alabama erases months of preparation. The margin for error disappears completely.
Venables faces eight projected Top 25 opponents in 2025:
Michigan
LSU
Texas
Alabama
Tennessee
These aren't just games. These are programs that measure success by crushing teams like Oklahoma.
The Clock Is Ticking
247Sports ranks Venables as college football's most embattled coach entering 2025. Vegas projects the Sooners to finish middle-tier in the SEC.
Athletic director Joe Castiglione has provided resources. Fans demand results, not explanations.
Anything less than a winning season could end Venables' tenure.
The Lesson Every Coach Learns Too Late
Your past success means nothing when the game changes around you.
Venables built his reputation at Oklahoma and Clemson as a defensive coordinator. But even returning to a familiar place doesn't guarantee success when everything else has changed. What worked as a coordinator doesn't automatically translate to being the CEO of Oklahoma football in a new conference.
In Norman, nobody gets remembered for coming close.
Buyout
Based on his contract details with the University of Oklahoma, Brent Venables' buyout amount depends on when the school decides to terminate his contract.
Here's a breakdown of Brent Venables' potential buyout amounts:

Additional details
His contract, which was extended through the 2029 season in June 2024, is valued at $51.6 million. The buyout would be paid in monthly installments rather than a lump sum. The contract includes offset language, meaning the buyout amount could be reduced if Venables takes another coaching job after being fired.
For a deeper dive into Oklahoma football and Brent Venables, click here.
5. UAB Passed Over A 7-6 Interim Coach To Hire Trent Dilfer. 2 Years Later, Dilfer Is 7-17, And That Coach Beat Him 32-6.

UAB Athletic Director Mark Ingram had a choice in 2022.
He could promote Bryant Vincent, who had just led the team to a 7-6 record as interim coach. Or he could hire Trent Dilfer, a former NFL quarterback with zero college coaching experience.
Ingram chose the shiny object.
"I'm not hiring a high school football coach," Ingram said. "I'm hiring the number six overall pick in the NFL draft."
Two years later, Dilfer is 7-17 with zero road wins. Vincent is coaching Louisiana Monroe to potential bowl eligibility and beat Dilfer's team 32-6 this season.
This happens everywhere in college football.
Athletic directors get starstruck by NFL pedigree and forget that playing quarterback and coaching football are entirely different skills. They mistake name recognition for competence. They assume Super Bowl rings translate to recruiting ability.
They're wrong every time.
Urban Meyer couldn't hack it in Jacksonville. Matt Rhule bombed with the Panthers before returning to college success. The NFL and college football require different skill sets, different leadership styles, different everything.
Here's the truth athletic directors refuse to accept:
Former NFL players often struggle as college coaches because they've never learned how to develop 18-year-olds. They've never had to recruit. They've never had to manage boosters or navigate the transfer portal. They think their résumé will do the work for them.
College coaching is about relationship-building, player development, and organizational management. NFL coaching is about scheme refinement and managing millionaire adults.
The next time your athletic director gets stars in their eyes over a former NFL player, remember Trent Dilfer.
Remember that proven college coaches exist for a reason.
And remember that sometimes the best hire is the one standing right in front of you, even if they're not the most exciting candidate.
Buyout
If UAB decided to part ways with head coach Trent Dilfer at the end of the 2025 season, the Blazers would owe their head coach roughly $2.4 million. UAB would pay Dilfer in monthly installments for the remainder of the contract.
He would receive $100,000 per month until Feb. 1, 2028, when his contract expires, if fired at the end of the 2025 season. Here is a complete buyout breakdown:
Buyout drops to $1.2 million after the 2026 season
Dilfer is paid $1.2 million per season. An annual raise is not included; however, he is eligible for merit raises determined by the UAB athletic director, Mark Ingram.
Click here for a complete breakdown of UAB and Trent Dilfer.
Where can I find my coach's ranking?
Follow this link. All 136 FBS coaches are listed.

THAT’S A WRAP
That’s it for this week. Let us know what you think about this issue in the comments below.
Friday, we reveal Coaches 6-10 on our Hot Seat Rankings.
The next five coaches are walking the tightrope between job security and unemployment. More buyout breakdowns. More programs pretend everything is fine while quietly updating their coaching search lists.
Because if the Top 5 taught us anything, it's this:
College football doesn't care about your reputation, your past success, or how much your contract says you're worth. Win games or find a new job.
See you Friday.
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