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5 Sun Belt Coaches Starting The Season On Borrowed Time (Plus How ULM's Athletic Department Collapsed In 72 Hours)

The coaching carnage everyone's missing while they obsess over Power Four hot seats, plus the administrative chaos tearing apart Conference USA's ULM

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IN THIS ISSUE

The Sun Belt Coaches Who Look Safe, But Aren’t.

While college football fans obsess over Power Five hot seats and ESPN countdown clocks, the real coaching carnage is happening where nobody's looking—the Sun Belt Conference.

This week, we're exposing the five most dangerous coaching situations that aren't trending on Twitter but should be dominating your October predictions.

Here's what you'll discover:

James Madison's Bob Chesney went 9-4 but posted a .500 conference record that should terrify every Dukes fan heading into Year Two. When competition got real, his system broke down completely.

Old Dominion's Ricky Rahne has mastered the art of close losses—consistently putting his team in position to win, then finding creative ways to lose. That's not bad luck. That's a coaching problem about to explode.

Coastal Carolina is paying Tim Beck $1.05 million annually to destroy what Jamey Chadwell built. He inherited magic and is systematically turning it back into mediocrity with 61 new roster additions.

Louisiana's Michael Desormeaux won 10 games and Coach of the Year honors with players he inherited from Billy Napier. Now they're all gone, and 2025 will finally reveal whether he can actually coach or manage other people's talent.

South Alabama's Major Applewhite inherited one of the most talented Sun Belt rosters in history and squeezed out just seven wins. That wasn't impressive coaching—that was systematic underachievement that revealed his permanent ceiling.

PLUS: In our Best Links section, we break down how ULM's athletic department collapsed in 72 hours—from an Athletic Director quitting in protest over budget cuts to a football coach suddenly running an entire program while two senior deputies fled the building. It's the kind of administrative chaos that destroys coaching careers before they even get started.

The bottom line:

By Halloween, at least three of these coaches will be leading the national hot seat conversations. The question isn't whether they'll fail—it's which one explodes first.

We're betting on the ones nobody's watching.

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BEST LINKS

How ULM's Athletic Department Collapsed In 72 Hours (And Why The Football Coach Is Now Running The Entire Program)

The Athletic Director Who Quit After 18 Months (And What Really Happened)

John Hartwell just walked away from his dream job.

18 months ago, he was named Athletic Director at the University of Louisiana Monroe. Monday, he announced his resignation. The official reason? "Pursuing other professional opportunities."

Here's what that actually means: He doesn't have another job lined up. He's not sure where he wants to work next. But he's absolutely sure it's not ULM.

That's not a resignation. That's an escape.

Athletic Directors don't just quit successful programs. They don't abandon ship when everything is going perfectly. And they certainly don't leave "dream jobs" after less than 2 years without something else lined up—unless the alternative is worse than unemployment.

Hartwell's goodbye statement was exactly one sentence long: "I am grateful for the support of our student athletes, coaches, senior staff, donors, alumni, and all of Warhawk nation."

Notice who's missing from that thank-you list? The ULM administration. The people who actually make the decisions. The people he worked for every day.

That's not an oversight. That's a message.

Here's what started trickling out after the announcement: Hartwell essentially resigned in protest over budget cuts demanded "from above."

Shane Mettlen, who covers James Madison athletics, put it bluntly on Twitter: "Contacted a few SBC ADs, some caught off guard by Hartwell's resignation. Others have heard the new ULM president is demanding massive cuts to what is already the smallest budget in FBS. Perhaps as much as $6-9 million cut from what was a $21 million budget."

Read that again.

ULM already has the smallest budget in FBS. And they want to cut another $6-9 million from the total of $21 million.

That's not budget management. That's program elimination.

Hartwell looked at those numbers and said, "I'd rather be unemployed than try to run a competitive athletic program on $12-15 million."

He was probably right. LINK

The Exodus That Nobody Saw Coming (And The Coach Stuck Cleaning Up The Mess)

Remember that Athletic Director who quit in protest over budget cuts?

ULM just replaced him with their football coach. And it gets worse.

Bryant Vincent went to bed Sunday night as a football coach with a 5-7 record. He woke up Monday as the Interim Athletic Director trying to manage the fallout from what's looking less like a resignation and more like a departmental collapse.

Because it wasn't just John Hartwell who left.

According to CollegeAD, Senior Deputy AD Coleman Barnes and Associate AD for Internal Operations Michael Gammon have both left the department, too.

That's not a coincidence. That's an exodus.

The Athletic Director quit rather than implement budget cuts that would gut the program. Two of his top deputies followed him out the door. Now, Vincent—a football coach who's never run an athletic department—is supposed to figure out how to operate on potentially $6-9 million less than the already-smallest budget in FBS.

The President says Vincent has "the support of the Associate ADs." But which ones? The ones who just left, or whoever's still there after the leadership team decided it wasn't worth sticking around?

Here's the math Vincent is staring at:

ULM's athletic budget was already $21 million—the smallest in FBS. If the rumors are true, he might be asked to run it on $12-15 million while also coaching football and preparing for a season opener in three weeks.

You know what's more complicated than being a Division I football coach? Being one while trying to manage an athletic department in a financial crisis after the entire leadership structure just walked out.

Vincent started 5-1 last season—ULM's best start since 1987. That feels like a lifetime ago now.

The university says they're launching a "national search" for a permanent AD. Good luck with that. Word travels fast in college athletics, and everyone now knows what happened to the last guy who took this job.

Here's the real question: What candidate is going to look at this situation—budget cuts, administrative exodus, and institutional instability—and think, "Yes, this is exactly the challenge I've been waiting for"?

Bryant Vincent didn't get promoted. He got handed a mess that three other people decided wasn't worth cleaning up.

The season starts on August 28th. The clock is ticking. LINK

DEEP DIVE

The Coaches Nobody's Watching (But Should Be)

Most college football fans obsess over the obvious hot seats—the Power Five coaches with million-dollar buyouts and ESPN countdown clocks.

But the real coaching carnage happens where nobody's looking.

This week, we're diving deep into the Sun Belt's most dangerous situations. These aren't the coaches trending on Twitter or debated on sports talk radio. These are the guys whose careers hang by threads thinner than their win-loss records suggest.

Here's what separates our analysis from everything else you'll read:

  • We focus on the coaches flying under the national radar

  • We examine the mathematical realities behind seemingly "successful" seasons

  • We predict which hot seats will explode before anyone sees them coming

  • We analyze the cultural and financial pressures that destroy coaching careers

The Sun Belt Conference has become college football's most unforgiving laboratory for coaching careers. Nine different head coaches. Massive roster overhauls. Transfer portal chaos. Recruiting battles against Power Five programs.

Some will survive. Others won't make it to Halloween.

Let's find out who's really coaching for their jobs—and who's already lost them without knowing it yet.

Why Bob Chesney's .500 Conference Record Is Terrifying

Most college football fans celebrate 9-4 seasons.

But here's what they're missing about James Madison's 2024: that record hides a .500 conference performance that should terrify every Dukes fan heading into Year Two.

The Surface Numbers Lie

Chesney's debut looked impressive on paper.

  • 407.6 yards per game on offense

  • 33.3 points scored per contest

  • 9-4 overall record with bowl victory

But James Madison went exactly .500 in Sun Belt play at 4-4. When the competition got real, the system broke down. The offense that averaged 407.6 yards overall managed just 358.8 yards in losses.

The Cignetti Shadow

Here's what makes this worse: Curt Cignetti went 52-9 at James Madison before leaving for Indiana.

When he left, Cignetti took seven assistant coaches and nine key players through the transfer portal. Those same players helped him start 10-0 at Indiana and reach the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, Chesney inherited the gutted remains and managed only .500 against Sun Belt opponents.

The Year Two Reality

Championship programs don't celebrate moral victories.

Cignetti's teams reached FCS National Championships and won conference titles. That established expectations that .500 represents failure, not progress. Year Two brings road games at Louisville and Liberty, plus conference opponents who now have full tape to study.

The Bottom Line

Chesney's .912 hot seat rating reflects strong performance with a massive qualifier: "weak competition."

The 9-4 record masks the real story—when talent levels equalized, his system struggled. Cignetti's immediate Indiana success proves what championship coaching looks like.

.500 conference records don't win championships.

Check out our deeper dive into James Madison here.

Why College Football Fans Are Missing the Most Dangerous Hot Seat in America

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: While you're debating obvious hot seats, the most dangerous coaching situation in America is hiding in plain sight.

When people hear "Old Dominion," they think of shipping trucks, not football helmets.

That's exactly the problem Ricky Rahne was hired to solve in 2020.

Four years later, Reddit threads still joke about thinking of trucking companies before touchdowns.

Mission failed.

Here's why Rahne's situation is more dangerous than the coaches everyone's watching:

The Close-Loss Curse:

  • Coastal Carolina: Lost 45-37

  • Marshall: Lost 42-35

  • James Madison: Lost 35-32

Rahne consistently puts his team in a position to win, then finds creative ways to lose. That's not bad luck—that's a coaching problem.

The 2025 Schedule Reality: Opens at Indiana (Big Ten), then travels to Virginia Tech (ACC) in the first three weeks.

If ODU starts 0-2 with blowout losses, Rahne goes from "under the radar" to "trending on Twitter" overnight.

The roster situation makes it worse: Losing 1,342 receiving yards and 887 rushing yards from departures. Their replacements? Players who combined for 292 yards in 2024.

Here's what makes this the most dangerous type of hot seat:

  • Flying under national radar âś“

  • Weak conference means fewer excuses âś“

  • University desperate for recognition âś“

  • Pattern of close losses proving he can't finish âś“

The prediction nobody's making:

By Halloween, Ricky Rahne will be at the TOP of coaching hot seat rankings.

The trucking company will still be more famous than the football team, and that fact alone will cost him his job.

Mark this prediction—the hottest seat nobody's watching is about to explode.

Check out our deep dive into Old Dominion (the football team) here.

While College Football Fans Obsess Over Oklahoma's Coaching Drama, The Most Expensive Group of Five Failure Is Destroying Coastal Carolina At $1.05 Million Per Year

The Million-Dollar Mistake Nobody's Watching

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FANS: While you're debating Brent Venables at Oklahoma, the most expensive coaching failure in the Sun Belt is happening in plain sight.

Tim Beck makes $1.05 million annually at Coastal Carolina.

Here's what you're getting for that price:

  • Year 1: 8-5 (everyone celebrated the "smooth transition")

  • Year 2: 6-7, blown out 44-15 in their bowl game

  • Year 3 prep: 61 new players added to the roster

Let me repeat that: Sixty-one new players.

That's not roster management—that's roster panic.

The context everyone's missing:

Beck replaced Jamey Chadwell, who went 31-6 over three seasons and won the 2020 Coach of the Year award after an 11-1 campaign that put Coastal Carolina on the national map.

Chadwell built something magical from nothing.

Beck inherited magic and is turning it back into nothing.

The pattern that should terrify Coastal fans:

In 2024 wins, they averaged 40.7 points per game. In 2024, they averaged 17.1 points per game.

That's not competitive inconsistency—that's a coaching staff with zero answers when opponents make adjustments.

Here's the prediction nobody's making:

Beck starts 2025 at Virginia (road) and faces South Carolina later. If those games go badly, the "Tim Beck experiment" becomes the "Tim Beck failure" overnight.

Following legends is college football's cruelest assignment. But when you're paid $1 million to do it and the trajectory points straight down, patience runs out faster than people expect.

The bottom line: You're watching the most expensive coaching mistake in Group of Five football, and nobody's paying attention because it's happening at Coastal Carolina instead of Oklahoma.

By December, they'll be looking for coach number five in program history.

Our deep dive into Coastal Carolina is here.

Louisiana Coach Michael Desormeaux Faces Make-Or-Break 2025 Season After Losing All-Star Players From 10-Win Team

Most college football fans think a 10-win season and a Coach of the Year award mean job security.

They're about to learn why they're wrong.

Michael Desormeaux's 2024 success at Louisiana was built entirely on players he inherited from Billy Napier. Every impact performer—Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year Ben Wooldridge, Lou Groza winner Kenneth Almendares, leading rusher Zylan Perry—was recruited and developed under the previous regime.

Now they're all gone.

The 2025 season will finally reveal whether Desormeaux can coach or if he was managing other people's talent.

Here's the evidence that suggests he was managing:

When Louisiana faced real competition in 2024's two biggest games, they scored 3 points against Marshall in the Sun Belt Championship and 3 points against TCU in the New Mexico Bowl. Six total points when it mattered most.

That's not unlucky—that's systematic coaching failure under pressure.

His quarterback solution makes it worse:

Desormeaux's big transfer portal win was Walker Howard, a former five-star recruit who has completed exactly 10 passes for 63 yards in three college seasons at LSU and Ole Miss. Lane Kiffin couldn't find ways to get Howard meaningful snaps in two full seasons.

But somehow, Desormeaux will unlock this mystery with an inexperienced supporting cast?

The 2025 schedule will expose everything:

Road games at Missouri (SEC), Troy, James Madison, South Alabama, and Arkansas State. Each opponent possesses the coaching and talent to exploit Louisiana's rebuilt roster.

College football rarely provides extended timelines for coaches to prove they belong. Desormeaux got his five-year extension based on one successful regular season with inherited talent.

2025 becomes his first authentic coaching evaluation.

Success with inexperienced players would validate his program-building ability. Regression would confirm the uncomfortable truth: Michael Desormeaux was promoted beyond his competence level.

Louisiana fans are about to discover whether their coach can develop talent or manage it.

Our Louisiana deep dive is available here.

Why Major Applewhite's Ceiling Is Already Showing At South Alabama

Most coaches dream of going 7-6 in their first season.

Major Applewhite should be terrified by it.

Because that 7-6 record might represent the absolute peak of what he can accomplish at South Alabama, and the numbers prove it.

Here's the brutal reality nobody wants to discuss:

Applewhite inherited one of the most talented rosters in Sun Belt history and managed to squeeze out just seven wins. That's not impressive coaching—that's systematic underachievement.

Look at what he had to work with in 2024:

  • QB Gio Lopez: 2,559 yards, 18 TDs (elite production)

  • RB Fluff Bothwell: 832 yards, 13 TDs (explosive talent)

  • WR Jamaal Pritchett: 1,127 yards, 9 TDs (elite receiver)

  • Experienced offensive line

  • Veteran leadership across the roster

That talent level should have produced at least 9-10 wins.

Instead, South Alabama lost to Troy (28-24), Louisiana (51-30), and James Madison (35-33), three games where superior talent should have dominated.

The ceiling problem gets worse in 2025:

Applewhite now faces the Sun Belt schedule with significantly less talent but the same strategic limitations that prevented him from maximizing 2024's loaded roster.

His offensive system at Houston averaged 30.1 points per game. At South Alabama with better skill players, he managed just 29.8 points per game.

That's not improvement, it's stagnation.

The recruiting reality makes it permanent:

South Alabama will never out-recruit Texas, LSU, or Alabama for elite prospects. Applewhite's ceiling depends entirely on his ability to develop 2-3 star players into Sun Belt champions.

His track record suggests that's impossible.

At Houston, he inherited Tom Herman's recruiting classes and went 15-11.

At South Alabama, he inherited Kane Wommack's talent and went 7-6.

Both records represent underachievement relative to talent available.

The 2025 season won't expose whether Applewhite can coach.

It will confirm that his ceiling—even with veteran talent—is mediocrity.

South Alabama fans better hope 7-6 was worth celebrating, because it might be the best they'll see for the next five years.

Read our complete deep dive into South Alabama here.

THAT’S A WRAP

What we learned this week:

The Sun Belt isn't just college football's most unpredictable conference—it's becoming its most dangerous place to coach.

While everyone obsesses over Power Four hot seats, the real coaching carnage is happening where nobody's looking. Five coaches who appear safe on paper are actually sitting on hidden vulnerabilities that could explode by Halloween.

The pattern is clear:

James Madison's Bob Chesney posted a 9-4 record that masks a .500 conference performance. When talent levels equalized, his system struggled.

Old Dominion's Ricky Rahne has perfected the art of close losses—putting teams in position to win, then finding new and more inventive ways of losing. That's not bad luck, that's a coaching problem.

Coastal Carolina is paying Tim Beck $1.05 million to systematically destroy what Jamey Chadwell built with 61 new roster additions.

Louisiana's Michael Desormeaux won 10 games with inherited talent. Now he faces his first authentic evaluation with his players.

South Alabama's Major Applewhite took one of the Sun Belt's most talented rosters and squeezed out seven wins, revealing a ceiling that might be permanent.

Then there's the ULM situation:

An Athletic Director quit in protest over budget cuts. Two senior deputies followed him out the door. Now, a football coach is trying to run an entire athletic department while preparing for his season opener in three weeks.

That's not just administrative chaos—that's a preview of what happens when the pressure becomes unsustainable.

Next week:

We finish the Sun Belt deep dive, then pivot to the season's most intriguing storylines: new head coaches trying to prove they belong.

Marshall's rebuilding project. Southern Miss's fresh start. Utah State's transition challenge.

And the most fascinating of all—UNLV, where everything that could go right or wrong will be amplified under the brightest lights in college football.

The coaches nobody's watching are about to find out if they can coach.

Stay tuned.

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