BIG 12 CONFERENCE HOT SEAT RANKING PRESEASON 2025

BIG 12 CONFERENCE HOT SEAT RANKING PRESEASON 2025

Every coaching job in college football lives on a spectrum from "win or get fired" to "name the stadium after me."

Our annual Hot Seat Rankings dive deeper than wins and losses, examining:

• Contract structures and buyout clauses

• Booster and donor sentiment (via confidential interviews)

• Year-over-year roster development

• Program trajectory vs. institutional resources

• Performance against rivals and peer programs

What truly separates secure coaches from endangered ones? Often just a few plays, a critical injury, or one bad recruiting cycle.

Let's break down every Big 12 coaching seat from scorching hot to ice cold.

1. Scott Satterfield - Cincinnati

Scott Satterfield has 12 Saturdays to save his career.

After back-to-back losing seasons and a dismal 8-16 record (.333 winning percentage), patience has vanished in Cincinnati. The fanbase still remembers Luke Fickell delivering a playoff berth three years ago, making Satterfield's regression even more painful.

The financial commitment makes this situation truly explosive:

• Six-year, $3.4 million annual contract through 2028

• 100% buyout clause (not the usual diminishing percentage)

• Record $7.25 million assistant coaching pool

• Total coaching investment of $10.65 million annually

Offensive pieces exist for immediate improvement—Brendan Sorsby (2,453 passing yards) and Corey Kiner (back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons) provide proven production. However, industry projections suggest another 5-7 finish while program expectations demand at least bowl eligibility.

The clock is ticking in Cincinnati.

2. Mike Gundy - Oklahoma State

Mike Gundy's 19-year dynasty stands on the brink of collapse.

The 2024 season wasn't just disappointing—it was historically catastrophic. The Cowboys finished 3-9 overall and went winless (0-9) in the Big 12, concluding with a humiliating 52-0 shutout loss at Colorado.

What made this collapse so shocking was the context: Oklahoma State returned most production from a 10-win team that played in the Big 12 Championship Game just a year earlier.

Gundy's response has been dramatic:

• Completely rebuilt his coaching staff (only two assistants retained)

• Assembled what many consider a top-10 transfer portal class

• Added former five-star edge rusher Chandavian Bradley

• Signed a contract with reduced buyout protection

• Agreed to assist in finding his replacement if fired

Most analysts project improvement to the 5-7 to 7-5 range, but industry insiders consider six wins the minimum threshold for survival.

3. Brent Brennan - Arizona

Brent Brennan steered a championship-caliber vessel straight into an iceberg.

After inheriting a 10-win team fresh off an Alamo Bowl victory, Brennan guided Arizona to a disastrous 4-8 record (2-7 in the Big 12) with embarrassing blowout losses, including a 49-7 humiliation against rival Arizona State.

This spectacular regression forces us to confront uncomfortable truths about Brennan's career trajectory:

• Career .404 winning percentage (37-56)

• First two seasons at San Jose State: 3-22 combined

• One outlier, 7-1 pandemic-shortened season

• Return to mediocrity in subsequent years

The quarterback competition now dominates headlines, with Wisconsin transfer Braedyn Locke battling talented freshmen Sawyer Robinson and Robert McDaniel for the starting role.

Arizona's bar for 2025 is painfully clear: reaching bowl eligibility represents significant progress, while anything less likely triggers another coaching search by December.

4. Willie Fritz - Houston

Year Two is where Willie Fritz's rebuilding magic typically emerges.

After a challenging 4-8 debut season in the Big 12, the Houston Cougars aren't making minor adjustments; they're executing a full-scale program transformation designed to shock the conference in 2025.

Fritz arrived at Houston with one of college football's most impressive resumes:

• 212 career wins (fourth among active FBS coaches)

• Conference championships at every coaching stop

• Transformed Tulane from 2-10 to 12-2 Cotton Bowl champions in one year

• Finished with a 23-5 record in his final two Tulane seasons

Even during 2024's struggles, Fritz demonstrated his upset capability with wins over Utah, Kansas State, and TCU.

The schedule provides more runway in 2025, and Fritz's historically proven ability to engineer second-year improvements gives Cougar fans legitimate reasons for optimism.

While bowl eligibility would represent meaningful progress, the objective measure isn't just wins—it's competitiveness.

5. Dave Aranda - Baylor

Dave Aranda's coaching trajectory executed the most dramatic in-season U-turn imaginable.

Aranda appeared destined for unemployment after a disastrous 3-9 season in 2023 and a rough 2-4 start to 2024. Then something clicked.

The Bears rattled off six straight wins, finished 8-5, secured a Texas Bowl appearance, and completely rewrote Aranda's Waco narrative. Now entering 2025 with a contract through 2029, the once-scorching hot seat has cooled, but expectations have skyrocketed.

Baylor returns remarkable offensive firepower:

• 9 of 11 starters from an offense that ranked 6th nationally

• QB Sawyer Robertson (3,071 yards, 28 TDs) with emerging Heisman buzz

• Freshman All-American RB Bryson Washington (1,028 yards, 13 TDs)

• Alabama transfer WR Kobe Prentice joining returning deep threat Josh Cameron

Fan surveys reveal stunning optimism: over 90% expressing positive feelings and 44% predicting a 9-3 record.

6. Sonny Dykes - TCU

TCU has quietly built college football's most formidable recruiting machine.

Sonny Dykes has transformed the Horned Frogs into the Big 12's premier destination for talent, signing the conference's #1 recruiting class and his third straight top-three Big 12 class.

This recruiting dominance isn't just about star ratings; it's systematically addressing weaknesses that held TCU back from championship contention:

• 13 of 30 signees are playing on the offensive or defensive line

• Strategic transfer additions at skill positions

• Edge rusher Chad Woodfork and receiver Terry Shelton headlining six four-star recruits

The Horned Frogs closed 2024 with impressive momentum: a 6-1 run, four straight victories, and QB Josh Hoover emerging as a star (3,949 yards, 27 TDs).

Despite facing college football's most demanding schedule—11 Power Four opponents—TCU has the roster talent and coaching continuity to exceed most projections.

7. Lance Leipold - Kansas

Kansas football stands at a defining crossroads under Lance Leipold.

After a rollercoaster 2024 campaign that teased fans with unprecedented highs (beating three straight ranked opponents) but ultimately crashed into a 5-7 finish, the Jayhawks face a moment of truth in 2025.

With quarterback Jalon Daniels returning for his final season, 22 new transfers reshaping the roster, and a gleaming renovated stadium awaiting its grand reopening, this season will answer the central question hanging over Lawrence: Was the Jayhawks' breakthrough in 2022-2023 the beginning of something sustainable, or just a fleeting moment of relevance?

Five factors will determine Kansas' fate:

• Jalon Daniels' health (being managed carefully in spring practice)

• Chemistry development among 22 new transfers

• Defensive improvement against the pass (239.1 yards allowed per game)

• Replacing Devin Neal's prolific production

The schedule offers immediate spotlight with the "Week 0" stadium opening against Fresno State and the return of the Border Showdown rivalry against Missouri on September 6.

This season's variance is wider than any other Big 12 team, ranging from conference contention to uncomfortable questions about the program's direction.

8. Joey McGuire - Texas Tech

The championship window just swung wide open in Lubbock.

After dropping $10+ million on the nation's #1 transfer portal class, Joey McGuire has officially pushed all his chips to the center of the table—transforming Texas Tech from a middle-of-the-pack program into a legitimate College Football Playoff contender overnight.

The aggressive approach began when McGuire publicly labeled his 8-5 season a "complete failure," signaling that national expectations were now the standard in Lubbock.

This isn't just adding depth—it's a complete roster overhaul with championship aspirations:

• Five-star WR Micah Hudson returns after briefly transferring to Texas A&M

• TE Terrance Carter brings 48 catches, 689 yards from Louisiana

• RB Quinten Joyner averaged 7.6 yards per carry at USC

• Multiple defensive backs are addressing a secondary that struggled in 2024

QB Behren Morton returns after throwing for 3,335 yards and 27 touchdowns despite battling shoulder issues, providing crucial stability under center.

9. Scott Frost - UCF

UCF's prodigal son has returned to Orlando.

After guiding the Knights to a historic undefeated season in 2017 and then departing for Nebraska, Scott Frost is back with unfinished business and Big 12 dreams.

The reunion couldn't come at a more critical time for UCF, which stumbled to a disappointing 4-8 record in 2024, losing 8 of its final 9 games.

Frost's 5-year contract through 2029 signals a long-term commitment, but his biggest gamble might derail everything before it starts: hiring Alex Grinch as defensive coordinator.

Grinch's recent resume raises serious red flags:

• Fired midseason from USC in 2023 after defensive collapses

• Allowed 101 combined points in his final two USC games

• Oklahoma's defense regressed under his watch

• Spent 2024 as co-defensive coordinator at Wisconsin in a reset year

This high-risk hire to lead a defense that surrendered 40 touchdowns in 2024 could prove brilliant or catastrophic, with little middle ground.

The quarterback competition between Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter (4,762 yards, 47 TDs over two seasons) and five-star freshman Julian "Juju" Lewis adds another layer of uncertainty to Frost's rebuild.

Most analysts project UCF fighting for bowl eligibility (6-7 wins) while building toward future contention.

This reunion offers a rare second chance to recapture magic—but the Grinch gamble could determine whether Frost's return becomes triumph or tragedy.

10. Kyle Whittingham - Utah

Utah's 2024 season wasn't just unlucky—it was biblical.

The Utes lost FIVE quarterbacks to injury, cycling through their entire depth chart until they were playing their fifth-string QB by November.

The offensive collapse was predictable:

• 329.8 yards per game (bottom third nationally)

• 55.6% completion rate (near the basement of FBS)

• 23.6 points per game (inadequate for P4 competition)

• A 7-game losing streak (longest of Whittingham's 20-year tenure)

The gut punch? Utah's defense ranked 12th nationally in scoring. They were championship-caliber on one side of the ball.

For 2025, Whittingham pressed the transfer portal panic button, adding New Mexico star Devon Dampier (3,934 total yards) to anchor a completely rebuilt quarterback room.

At 65, entering year 22 as head coach with Morgan Scalley officially named "head coach in waiting," this could be Whittingham's final season. He considered retirement after 2024's debacle but stayed for one more shot at redemption.

Everything comes down to quarterback health.

11. Matt Campbell - Iowa State

Iowa State just delivered the greatest season in school history.

Now comes their greatest challenge: doing it again.

After an unprecedented 11-win campaign in 2024 that included the program's first-ever Big 12 Championship Game appearance and a thrilling Pop-Tarts Bowl victory over Miami, the Cyclones face the difficult task of maintaining their newly established status among the conference elite.

Quarterback Rocco Becht returns after throwing for 3,505 yards and 25 touchdowns, evolving from game manager to team leader. As offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser noted: "Rocco is like another offensive coach on our staff."

The most glaring question mark looms over the wide receiver position:

• Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel departed for the NFL

• The duo combined for 2,377 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns

• Strategic portal additions will address the production void

• Chase Sowell (East Carolina/Colorado) brings size at 6'4"

• Xavier Townsend (UCF) adds versatility with 66 career catches

Matt Campbell's eight-year contract extension through 2032 signals a mutual commitment to long-term success. However, 2025 faces immediate challenges, beginning with a historic international opener against Kansas State in Dublin on August 23.

The question isn't whether the Cyclones can match last year's historic success; it's whether they can sustain their place among the conference elite.

12. Rich Rodriguez - West Virginia

The prodigal son has returned to Morgantown.

Rich Rodriguez is back on the West Virginia sideline after a 17-year journey through Michigan, Arizona, and Jacksonville State, setting up college football's most compelling redemption story.

When Rodriguez left after that magical 2007 season (which he has openly called his "biggest professional mistake"), he was an offensive innovator with a meteoric trajectory. The coach returning in 2025 is battle-tested, humbled, and equipped with wisdom his younger self never possessed.

Rodriguez isn't just tweaking West Virginia's roster—he's conducting college football's most dramatic personnel overhaul:

• 59 new faces arrived for spring practice

• Over 30 players left via transfer or were cut

• 114 players populate a roster with a 105-player limit

The quarterback competition features returning talent Nicco Marchiol (4-0 as a starter) battling Texas A&M transfer Jaylen Henderson for control of Rodriguez's offense.

With a revamped staff featuring former NFL stars like Adam "Pacman" Jones, Rodriguez is building something capable of recapturing the electricity that once made West Virginia a national contender.

Whatever happens, one thing is certain: When the Mountaineers take the field against Robert Morris on August 30th, the energy in Milan Puskar Stadium will be electric.

13. Kalani Sitake - BYU

BYU didn't get lucky in 2024—they got validated.

The Cougars finished 11-2 overall (7-2 in Big 12 play), claimed a share of first place in just their second Big 12 season, dominated Colorado 36-14 in the Alamo Bowl, and finished ranked #13 nationally, all after being picked to finish 13th in preseason polls.

Yet, entering 2025, national media projections have BYU with an over/under of just 7.5 wins, as though last season was a statistical anomaly rather than evidence of program excellence.

The biggest mistake analysts make is thinking BYU's success was a fluke.

History shows that Kalani Sitake consistently develops underrated talent into cohesive units that outperform expectations. With BYU, it's not about star ratings; it's about their development system and culture.

Quarterback Jake Retzlaff returns after accounting for 26 total touchdowns in 2024, though his 12 interceptions (tied for most in the Big 12) must improve for BYU to repeat last year's success.

The Cougars strategically addressed their 2024 weaknesses through the transfer portal:

• Added 301-pound DT Keanu Tanuvasa from Utah

• Secured OL Andrew Gentry from Michigan

• Brought in edge rusher Tausili Akana from Texas

Do not be shocked when BYU contends for another Big 12 title in 2025.

14. Kenny Dillingham - Arizona State

Kenny Dillingham just orchestrated college football's most remarkable single-season turnaround.

In one year, the 34-year-old coaching prodigy transformed Arizona State from 3-9 afterthought to 11-3 Big 12 Champions and College Football Playoff contenders.

For a program projected to finish dead last in their new conference, the 2024 season wasn't just successful—it was transformational. The Sun Devils dominated Iowa State 45-19 in the conference championship game and came within double overtime of beating Texas in the Peach Bowl.

What makes this even more impressive was Dillingham's culture-first approach:

• Created a "nobody believes in us" mentality that galvanized the team

• Established an energy level ESPN described as the "Energizer Bunnies of college football."

• Delivered on his promise to "activate the Valley" by reconnecting with the community

• Won Big 12 Coach of the Year honors after engineering the conference's most dramatic turnaround

Quarterback Sam Leavitt returns after throwing 2,885 yards with 24 TDs and just 6 INTs, entering 2025 with legitimate Heisman buzz.

With sixteen starters returning from last year's championship team, ASU has the pieces to prove 2024 wasn't lightning in a bottle—it was the foundation of a championship program.

15. Deion Sanders - Colorado

Phase II of the Prime Effect begins now.

After guiding the Colorado Buffaloes from 1-11 irrelevance to 9-4 national prominence in just two seasons, Deion Sanders enters Year 3 with a fascinating challenge: sustaining success without his superstars.

The departures of quarterback Shedeur Sanders, two-way star and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, and safety Shilo Sanders create both opportunity and uncertainty for a program in transition.

Sanders' freshly inked contract extension (reportedly over $10 million annually) signals Colorado's belief that his impact transcends individual players.

The quarterback battle commands national attention:

• Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter (4,762 yards, 47 TDs over two seasons)

• Five-star freshman Julian "Juju" Lewis (reclassified to join early)

• The winner inherits an offense that averaged 32.9 points per game

Perhaps most importantly, Colorado returns only about 50% of its production (44% on offense), creating the perfect test case for Sanders' program-building abilities.

Colorado's 2025 schedule features seven home games—the most in over four decades—providing runway for a strong start.

The next chapter of Colorado football may lack the star power of its predecessor, but it might ultimately prove more meaningful for the program's long-term trajectory under Coach Prime.

16. Chris Klieman - Kansas State

Kansas State has quietly built college football's most consistently excellent program.

Coming off their third consecutive 9-win season, the Wildcats have positioned themselves among the nation's elite. Only Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, and Ole Miss can match K-State's remarkable consistency over the last four years.

Junior quarterback Avery Johnson returns after a breakout sophomore campaign:

• 2,712 passing yards and a school-record 25 touchdowns

• 605 rushing yards and 7 scores on the ground

• Fourth in school history in pass attempts

• One of only nine QBs nationally with 25+ passing TDs and 7+ rushing TDs

The backfield ranks #6 in America according to 247Sports, featuring Washington State transfer Wayshawn Parker (735 rushing yards), Nebraska transfer Gabe Ervin Jr., and four-star freshman Daniel Bray.

But beneath this excellence lurk concerning trends that could derail championship aspirations:

• 5.5 penalties per game (45.7 yards)

• Season-high 9 penalties for 96 yards against West Virginia

• Perfectly neutral turnover margin (16 committed, 15 forced)

These self-inflicted wounds seem incongruent with what is otherwise one of the most stable programs in college football.

THAT’S A WRAP

The Stakes Have Never Been Higher

The Big 12 coaching landscape has transformed from stability to volatility in just one offseason.

We've never seen such a dramatic spectrum within a conference—from Scott Satterfield's 12-week audition at Cincinnati to Chris Klieman's dynasty-building at Kansas State.

Programs that once celebrated 7-win seasons now demand New Year's Six bowls. Athletic directors who previously measured progress in 3-year windows now expect immediate results.

This volatility creates the perfect viewing experience for fans, and almost every Saturday has career-defining implications for coaches across the conference.

Stay tuned for Friday's issue, where we'll reveal our Big Ten Hot Seat Rankings. We'll start with Nebraska, UCLA, Michigan State, and Washington—four programs navigating their own fascinating coaching journeys through college football's most transformative era.

As always, let us know what you thought of this issue and send comments by replying to this newsletter.