Coaches Hot Seat 2025 End of Season Rankings

Plus - Notre Dame snubbed by CFP and has a meltdown. First draft of collective bargaining proposal released by Athletes.org

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IN THIS ISSUE

The regular season is over.

The chaos is just starting.

This week, I'm rolling out the first draft of my End of Season Hot Seat Rankings - ten coaches stuck between impossible buyouts and impatient fan bases. Norvell. Locksley. Belichick. Names you know. Situations worse than you think.

These rankings will evolve. Coordinators are fielding calls. NFL teams are circling. By next week, this list might look different. But right now? This is where the pressure sits.

Then there's Notre Dame.

The Fighting Irish got left out of the playoff. They responded by calling the process a "farce," saying the playoff was "stolen," and withdrawing entirely from bowl consideration. I've got the full breakdown - including the MOU detail that makes the whole meltdown even harder to defend.

Also: Athletes.org dropped the first real CBA framework for college sports. The 24-team playoff proposal is taking shape. And the 12-team bracket is set.

Lots to cover.

Let's get into it.

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BEST LINKS

Athletes.org Drops First CBA Framework

Someone finally wrote it down.

Athletes.org, the players' association for college athletes,  has published the first collective bargaining agreement framework for college sports. Not talking points. Not press releases. An actual blueprint outlining terms between student-athletes and a governing body.

The four-year proposal includes:

  • Revenue share template agreement

  • School-specific revenue-sharing percentages based on pro rata revenue per sport

  • Five-year max on eligibility

  • Removal of third-party NIL limitations

Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione called it "one of the first concrete blueprints I've seen which integrates the athlete's side of this paradigm shift."

He's right.

The framework isn't perfect. But it moves the conversation from abstract arguments to workable solutions - addressing athlete rights, general participation pathways, and Olympic hopefuls in a single document.

Syracuse President Kent Syverud, North Carolina AD Bubba Cunningham, Tennessee AD Danny White, and Boise State AD Jeramiah Dickey have all weighed in.

College sports finally has something to negotiate from. [LINK] [LINK]

LINK to the full framework.

College Football Playoff Bracket Set

The 12-team field is locked.

First-round byes: Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia, Texas Tech.

The matchups:

  • (8) Oklahoma vs. (9) Alabama → winner faces Indiana

  • (7) Texas A&M vs. (10) Miami (FL) → winner faces Ohio State

  • (6) Ole Miss vs. (11) Tulane → winner faces Georgia

  • (5) Oregon vs. (12) James Madison → winner faces Texas Tech

Notre Dame Left Out. Notre Dame Melts Down.

Miami jumped BYU in the final rankings.

That's when everything changed.

CFP Selection Committee Chair Hunter Yurachek said once Miami moved ahead of BYU, the committee had the side-by-side comparison everyone wanted: Hurricanes vs. Fighting Irish. He encouraged members to rewatch the Labor Day weekend game. The verdict?

"You look at those two teams on paper, and they are almost equal in their schedule strength, their common opponents, the results against common opponents. But the one metric we had to fall back on, again, was the head to head."

Miami beat Notre Dame. Miami got in.

Notre Dame did not take it well.

AD Pete Bevacqua described "overwhelming shock and sadness. Like a collective feeling that we were all just punched in the stomach."

He called the weekly ranking shows a "farce" that give false hope to fans and teams.

He said the playoff was "stolen" from Notre Dame's student-athletes.

He revealed the Irish delivered what the committee called "the best presentation that they've received in the two years of the expanded playoff."

None of it mattered.

Notre Dame's response? Withdraw from bowl consideration entirely. The program released a statement: "As a team, we've decided to withdraw our name from consideration for a bowl game following the 2025 season."

No playoff. No bowl. Notre Dame is going home.

Then came the independence question.

Yahoo's Ross Dellenger noted that many stakeholders—perhaps even some in the selection committee room—believe the Irish should join a conference. Bevacqua shut it down immediately:

"We love being independent in football. It's part of our DNA. We have zero intention of changing that. It's part of who Notre Dame is. Quite frankly, this further cements our independence. We are out there fighting for ourselves."

Fighting for themselves. And losing.

Here's the twist.

Dellenger reported a detail from an MOU signed last spring: Starting next year, Notre Dame is guaranteed a CFP berth if ranked in the top 12. If this exact situation unfolds in 2026, the final at-large team - Miami - gets bumped for Notre Dame.

The Irish signed their own protection.

They signed it one year too late.

Links Below:

What 24 Teams Would Look Like

The Big Ten has a proposal on the table.

Four automatic qualifiers per power conference. Two G5 bids. Six at-large. Conference title games eliminated. The higher seed hosts the first two rounds.

Ross Dellenger mapped this year's rankings onto that format.

Worth a look if you want to see where this is heading. [LINK]

DEEP DIVE

End of 2025 Season - Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

The 2025 regular season is complete.

The coaching carousel is not.

These rankings reflect pressure, not predictions. We don't forecast firings. We track the gap between expectations and results—the weight of buyouts, the patience of administrators, the brutal math of wins and losses in a sport that changes by the hour.

This list is a work in progress.

Openings remain unfilled. Coordinators are fielding calls. NFL franchises are circling college sidelines. By the time you read this, names may have moved to new programs, new positions, or out of the profession entirely.

What won't change:

The decisions these coaches made in 2025. The results those decisions produced. And the pressure that follows them into the off-season.

Ten coaches.

Ten programs stuck between the cost of change and the cost of staying the same.Deep dive this week…

Ten programs stuck between the cost of change and the cost of staying the same.

#1. Mike Norvell – Florida State (5-7, 2-6 ACC)

  • Started 3-0 with a win over #8 Alabama, collapsed to 7 losses in the final 9 games.

  • Outgained opponents in 10 of 11 games but kept losing.

  • Lost to Stanford (no head coach), NC State, and Florida.

  • Norvell publicly admitted he doesn't have answers after losses.

  • Administration retained him with a vague "fundamental changes" statement despite $60M+ buyout. Zero road wins.

  • Fan base exhausted.

#2. Mike Locksley – Maryland (4-8, 1-8 Big Ten)

  •  Started 4-0, finished 0-8.

  •  Pattern repeated: 21-5 in Aug/Sept under Locksley, 15-39 after that.

  •  The eight-game losing streak included a loss to Michigan State (which entered the game winless in conference play).

  •  Now 16-43 in Big Ten play, 0-18 vs ranked Big Ten opponents.

  •  Worst winning percentage of any Power Four coach with tenure as long as his (after Cal fired Wilcox).

  • "Fire Locksley" chants at the Indiana game.

  • AD Jim Smith retained him, citing $13 buyout, lack of booster money, and desire to build around freshman QB Malik Washington.

  • Locksley: "Winning has a cost."

#3. Shane Beamer – South Carolina (4-8, 1-7 SEC)

  • SEC Coach of the Year 2024 to “hot seat” in 11 months.

  • Entered 2025 ranked #13 after a 6-game win streak, finished 4-8.

  •  LaNorris Sellers (preseason Heisman candidate) regressed badly.

  • Offense dead last in SEC: 19.7 PPG, 294.1 YPG.

  • Only Power Four team never to hit 350 yards in a single game all season.

  • Fired OC Mike Shula (after 9 games), OL coach Lonnie Teasley, and RB coach Marquel Blackwell.

  • Fourth OC in five years incoming.

  • Clemson beat them 28-14 at home (6th straight loss in Columbia).

  • Beamer gave "one billion percent" guarantee 2026 will be different.

  • 2026 schedule brutal:

    • At Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma

    • Home vs Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M.

#4. Dave Aranda – Baylor (5-7, 3-6 Big 12)

  • The 2021 Big 12 championship now feels like a different lifetime.

  • 22-26 since that trophy. Defense (Aranda's specialty) ranked 112th in rushing defense, 106th in total defense, and 123rd in sacks.

  • Sawyer Robertson led the nation in passing yards; it didn't matter.

  • Went 1-5 down stretch.

  • Only retained due to AD Mack Rhoades' resignation amid investigation (alleged sideline altercation with TE Michael Trigg).

  • President Linda Livingstone's retention letter read like a hostage statement: "We are not settling for mediocrity," while keeping the coach who has delivered precisely that.

  • 37-35 at Baylor with one elite season, five years of drift.

#5. Luke Fickell – Wisconsin (4-8, 1-7 Big Ten)

  • Took Cincinnati to CFP. Now 17-21 at Wisconsin with back-to-back losing seasons (first since 1991-92).

  • Worst Wisconsin football season record since 1-10 in 1990.

  • Offense historically bad: 135th of 136 FBS teams in yards (261.6), 134th scoring (12.5 PPG).

  • Shut out in consecutive games (Ohio State, Iowa) for the first time since 1977.

  • Lost to Minnesota 17-7 in the finale. QB situation disaster—hand-picked transfers available for full season in just 11 of 33 games due to injuries.

  • Fired OC Phil Longo after 10 games in 2024, answered "Why does it matter?" when asked who would be calling plays.

  • Four-star RB Amari Latimer flipped to West Virginia on signing day.

  • AD Chris McIntosh issued a vote of confidence, promised more resources.

  • Went 53-10 in the final five years at Cincinnati. 17-21 in three years at Wisconsin.

#6. Derek Mason – Middle Tennessee (3-9, 2-6 CUSA)

  • Two years, six wins, zero bowls.

  • 6-18 since taking over a program that played in 11 bowls under Rick Stockstill's 18-year tenure.

  •  Lost season opener to FCS Austin Peay.

  •  Seven-game losing streak included losses to Delaware, Missouri State, Kennesaw State (all in first/second year as FBS, all bowl eligible or close).

  • Defense allowed 31.5 PPG.

  • Lost four consecutive conference games by touchdown or less.

  • Closed with wins over 2-10 Sam Houston, 4-8 New Mexico State.

  • Mason is calling that "momentum."

  • Retained reportedly because AD Chris Massaro may retire in 2026.

  • Now 33-67 as head coach.

  • Stanford coordinator “shine” wore off at Vanderbilt, wearing off in Murfreesboro.

#7. Bill Belichick – North Carolina (4-8, 2-6 ACC)

  • The six-time Super Bowl champion went 4-8 in his first college season.

  • Debut: College GameDay for 48-14 loss to TCU.

  • Midseason WRAL report: program "unstructured mess," "complete disaster."

  • Lost five games by 16+ points.

  • Three FBS wins vs teams with a combined 8-28 record.

  • Offense last in ACC: 264.8 yards, 19.3 PPG.

  • GM Mike Lombardi called UNC the "33rd NFL team" at the presser.

  • Off-field chaos: banned Patriots scouts, assistant suspended for NCAA violations, players cited for reckless driving, 24-year-old girlfriend tabloid fixture.

  • Four-minute postgame presser after NC State blowout, no season recap:

  • "I don't have one. We haven't done it."

  • Guaranteed $10M/year through 2027.

  •  Losing players to the portal while fielding NFL inquiries.

  •  Three straight losing seasons (two New England, one Chapel Hill).

  • "Patriot Way" hasn't translated.

#8. Scotty Walden – UTEP (2-10, 1-7 CUSA)

  • Turned Austin Peay into an FCS power.

  • 5-19 in two years at UTEP.

  • Finished 2-10 in 2025 (one fewer win than Year 1).

  • Finale: 61-31 humiliation at Delaware (first FBS season, still blew out UTEP by 30).

  • Walden confronted Delaware coach Ryan Carty over a late field goal, calling it "classless."

  • UTEP threw five interceptions that game.

  • Lost to Kennesaw State, Missouri State, and Jacksonville State (all FCS last year).

  •  UTEP hasn't won a bowl game since 1967 (the longest FBS bowl drought).

  •  Moves to Mountain West in 2026: tougher opponents, longer travel.

  •  Age 35 with time to figure it out, but rebuild producing no results.

#9. Jay Sawvel – Wyoming (4-8, 3-5 Mountain West)

  • Craig Bohl built seven straight winning seasons.

  • Sawvel: 7-17 in two years, 4-11 conference, zero bowls.

  •  Finished 4-8 in 2025, four-game losing streak to end season (24 combined points).

  • Defense solid (19.9 PPG, 23rd nationally).

  • Offense averaged 16 PPG (inflated by two defensive TDs).

  • Demoted OC Jay Johnson midseason, promoted WR coach Jovon Bouknight, but it didn't help.

  • Beat Colorado State 28-0, then scored 17 total over the final three games.

  •  AD Tom Burman confirmed return for Year 3, citing $2.88M buyout: "4-8 doesn't work" but Sawvel "gives us the best chance to get it fixed."

  •  Mountain West losing Boise State, CSU, Fresno State, SDSU, Utah State to Pac-12.

  • Only 20 players remain from the Bohl era, none of whom earned all-conference honors.

  • Rebuild stalling.

#10. Dell McGee – Georgia State (1-11, 0-8 Sun Belt)

  • · Two national championship rings at Georgia.

  • · 4-20 at Georgia State.

  • · Dell McGee helped develop Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, and D'Andre Swift into NFL first-rounders.

He can't develop a competitive Sun Belt roster.

  • · Inherited a program that went 7-6 with a bowl win in 2023 under Shawn Elliott.

  • · Two years later: back-to-back double-digit loss seasons.

  • · The 2025 campaign delivered historic futility.

  • · Lost opener at Ole Miss 63-14 (gave up nearly 700 yards).

  • · Lost to Vanderbilt 70-28—first time allowing 70 points in program history.

  • · Defense surrendered 40.7 PPG (135th of 136 FBS teams). Nine-game losing streak to finish.

  • · Only win: FCS Murray State.

The Hue Jackson hire told the story.

  • McGee promoted the 0-16 Browns architect (3-36-1 NFL record) to offensive coordinator after Grambling State fired him for "lack of transparency, coordination, and collaboration."

  • The results: 21.1 PPG, 114th nationally. Lost finale 10-27 at Old Dominion.

McGee's Georgia State tenure has never held an opponent under 21 points.

  • Not once in 24 games.

  • He's now 4-20 as a head coach at a program that made four bowls in five years before he arrived.

  • The "four Cs" - connected, competitive, committed, composure - remain talking points.

  • Results remain absent.

AD Charlie Cobb hasn't addressed McGee's future publicly.

  • The program averaged 11,000 fans at Center Parc Stadium - when they showed up.

  • Year 3 brings no relief: at Georgia Tech, at LSU, at Miami on the non-conference slate.

  • Position coaching excellence doesn't automatically translate to program building.

Georgia State is learning that lesson at considerable cost.

THAT’S A WRAP

That's it for this week.

But Friday? We're going deeper.

The carousel has been spinning. New names in new places. Press conferences full of promises. Fan bases full of hope.

Here's what nobody's asking yet: Are these hires actually good fits? Will they meet expectations—or become next year's hot seat candidates?

I'm breaking down a couple of the biggest moves from the last two weeks. The fit. The expectations. The early warning signs nobody wants to talk about.

Some of these hires will work.

Some won't.

Friday, I'll tell you which is which.

See you then.

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