Coaches Hot Seat Rankings - Week 5

Exposing $15 Million Buyouts, Coordinator Failures, and Offensive Mirages Hiding in Plain Sight

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IN THIS ISSUE

Three Stories You Can't Miss

Mike Gundy's $15 Million Problem: Oklahoma State owes its coach $15 million whether it fires him or keeps him. With 172 passing yards per game and 11 consecutive losses to FBS opponents, the Cowboys are paying elite money for historically bad results. The buyout was supposed to protect both sides; instead, it has created a financial prison where doing nothing costs as much as taking action.

The $3 Million Lie Everyone Believes About Clemson. While everyone argues about Dabo's transfer portal philosophy, Clemson is paying $3 million annually for coordinators delivering bottom-tier performance. Garrett Riley and Tom Allen arrived with elite credentials but are producing ACC basement-level results. The portal debate is a perfect cover for coordinator failures that are wasting championship windows.

The 552-Yard Lie That's About To Cost Sam Pittman His Job. Arkansas averages 552 yards per game—elite offensive production that should translate to wins and job security. Instead, Pittman just blew the largest lead of any FBS team this season and sits at 7-19 in single-possession games. Great offensive numbers can't hide systematic coaching failures when games are on the line.

Why These Stories Matter

Every coach tells you they're "building something special."

But numbers don't lie. Results don't lie. And when million-dollar coaches can't execute in the moments that matter most, the hot seat becomes inevitable. This week's rankings reveal the difference between coaching competency and coaching failures—and why some seats are about to become vacant.

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BEST LINKS

UCF Mourns the Loss of Offensive Line Coach Shawn Clark - Former Appalachian State Head Coach, and Coaches Hot Seat Member, was 50. Our condolences to his family, the UCF community, and the Appalachian State community. More Here.

ESPN exec wants McAfee's $85M+ deal extended: "I could not imagine our daytime schedule without his show." - ESPN President Burke Magnus tells The Athletic he wants Pat McAfee to stay beyond his current five-year contract, praising the show's "cool factor" and noting every commissioner and athlete wants to appear on it. More Here.

Bad Look, Syracuse: The ACC fined Syracuse $25,000 and publicly reprimanded the school Monday for faking injuries in a 34-21 win over Clemson last weekend, calling its actions "unethical and contrary to the spirit of the rules." More Here

HOT SEAT RANKINGS - WEEK 5

Hot Seats moving up:

  • Gundy, Oklahoma State

  • Dilfer, UAB

  • Pittman, Arkansas

  • Jones, Arkansas State

  • Choate, Nevada

  • Fickell, Wisconsin

  • Mason, Middle Tennessee

  • Walden, UTEP

  • Sawvel, Wyoming

  • Aranda, Baylor

  • Wilcox, California

HOT SEAT FOCUS - WEEK 5

Mike Gundy Is Costing Oklahoma State $15 Million Whether They Fire Him Or Keep Him

Here's what nobody wants to say out loud.

Mike Gundy is done. Not "struggling." Not "going through a rough patch." Done. And Oklahoma State is about to learn the most expensive lesson in college football: the cost of denial.

The Numbers Don't Lie

Let me paint you a picture of collapse.

  • 172.3 passing yards per game. Most high schools throw for more.

  • 0.3 passing touchdowns per game. One aerial score in three games.

  • 426.7 yards allowed per game. The defense surrenders nearly 7 yards every snap.

  • 11 consecutive losses to FBS opponents. It’s the longest streak among Power 4 programs.

This isn't a rebuilding year—it's organizational failure.

The $15 Million Question

Oklahoma State owes Gundy $15 million if it fires him before 2027.

That's a lot of money for a school already struggling with NIL funding. But you know what's more expensive than $15 million? Irrelevance. Every embarrassing loss. Every empty seat. Every recruit who chooses elsewhere because Oklahoma State has become a punchline.

The buyout protects Gundy, but it's killing the program.

When Legends Become Liabilities

Twenty years ago, Gundy was Oklahoma State's savior.

Eighteen straight winning seasons. Five major bowls. 102 Big 12 wins. He made the Cowboys matter. But success has an expiration date. And Gundy's expired somewhere between complaining about Oregon's spending and losing to Tulsa at home for the first time since 1996.

Great coaches adapt to new eras—average coaches make excuses about them.

The Uncomfortable Truth

Everyone knows Gundy is finished except the man making $6.75 million to go 1-2.

The fans booed at halftime against Tulsa. The media called it "the worst sore we've seen in a long time." The administration restructured his contract with a $1 million pay cut. Even his own radio broadcast couldn't hide their disgust.

But Gundy keeps collecting checks while the program burns.

Oklahoma State has two choices: pay $15 million now or watch its program become the Big 12's laughingstock.

The first option is expensive.

The second option is fatal.

The $3 Million Lie Everyone Believes About Clemson

Everyone's arguing about the wrong thing at Clemson.

"Dabo won't use the transfer portal!" That's the narrative drowning out social media and sports talk radio. It's clean, simple, and completely wrong. While everyone debates roster philosophy, the real culprits are cashing million-dollar checks and failing spectacularly.

Time to expose the lie.

The Portal Myth Falls Apart

Clemson has used the transfer portal three of the last four years.

They added three transfers this season, including Jeremiah Alexander from Alabama. They lead the nation with 80% returning production and rank at the top in player retention. But here's the number that destroys this entire narrative: 365.3 yards per game.

That's how much offense Clemson produces while scoring only 2.5 touchdowns per game.

The Real Problem Is Obvious

You don't need transfer portal players to score in the red zone when you're already moving the ball 365 yards.

Garrett Riley won the 2022 Broyles Award. His previous offenses averaged 38.6 points per game. Clemson scores 19.5. Tom Allen came from Penn State's 7th-ranked defense. At Clemson, he's 74th nationally. Against Syracuse, his unit allowed 195 yards in one quarter.

This isn't about roster construction—it's about coordinator execution.

The Expensive Cover-Up

The portal criticism is a perfect cover for $3 million in coordinator failures.

Instead of questioning why Riley can't finish drives, we debate recruiting philosophy. Instead of asking why Allen's defense regressed from elite to mediocre in eight months, we argue about transfer strategy. The coordinators get protection while fans fight about roster management.

Clemson made the College Football Playoff in 2024 with minimal portal usage.

Stop arguing about transfer portal philosophy.

Start asking why coordinators with elite credentials are producing bottom-tier results.

The portal isn't Clemson's problem—the coaching is.

When elite offense can't hide coaching failures, the math becomes brutal

Sam Pittman Averages 552 Yards Per Game But Can't Win Close Games (And It's About To Cost Him His Job)

Here's the most deceptive statistic in college football.

Sam Pittman's Arkansas averages 552 yards per game. Elite numbers that should translate to wins and job security. Instead, he just blew the largest lead of any FBS team this season and sits at #4 on national hot seat rankings.

The offensive explosion is hiding coaching failures that matter most.

When Great Stats Meet Bad Coaching

Arkansas led Memphis 28-10 before losing 32-31 on a fourth-quarter fumble.

This wasn't bad luck—it was the latest example of systematic coaching failure. Pittman is 7-19 in single-possession games with just 2-10 since 2023. Great coaches find ways to win close games. Bad coaches find ways to lose them despite elite offensive production.

You can move the ball 552 yards per game, but if you can't execute in the final 10 minutes, those yards mean nothing.

The Contract Math Changes Everything

Arkansas owes Pittman $9-10 million if it fires him today.

But here's the clause that makes this interesting: if his record drops below .500, the buyout gets cut in half. He sits at 32-33 right now. Seven of his next eight opponents are ranked in the AP Top 25. The schedule mathematics make his firing both inevitable and financially attractive.

When your own athletic director publicly states the program is "not set up to win a national championship," you're already done.

The Inevitable Reality

Elite offensive production that can't win close games is fool's gold.

Pittman has built the most deceptive offense in college football—explosive numbers that mask fundamental coaching failures when games are on the line. The 552 yards create the illusion of competency while revealing systematic breakdowns in game management and situational awareness.

Arkansas doesn't need to fire Sam Pittman.

The next four weeks will do it for them.

Sometimes the best offensive numbers hide the worst coaching.

THAT’S A WRAP

The Problem Behind the Problems

Sometimes the real issue isn't on the field.

That t-shirt tells you everything you need to know about UCLA's athletic department. Martin Jarmond has created a culture of mediocrity that starts at the top and trickles down to every coaching hire, every program decision, and every fan interaction. When your own supporters are wearing "Fire Jarmond" shirts to games, you've lost the room.

But here's what makes this situation worse than a bad coach.

When Athletic Directors Become the Problem

Bad coaches get fired and replaced.

Bad athletic directors destroy programs for decades. Jarmond has shown he can't support his coaches, can't connect with the UCLA community, and apparently can't even interact with fans without creating controversies. Now he's leading the search for UCLA's next head coach.

That's like asking someone who can't drive to pick your next car.

Chancellor Julio Frenk has a choice: let Jarmond continue guaranteeing mediocrity, or recognize that leadership starts at the top. UCLA deserves better than an athletic director who has lost the confidence of everyone he's supposed to serve.

Some problems run deeper than X's and O's.

What We Covered This Week

We exposed three coaching myths that are hiding the real problems:

Mike Gundy's $15 Million Trap - Oklahoma State is paying elite money whether they keep their failing coach or fire him. The buyout that was supposed to protect both sides has created a financial prison where inaction costs as much as action.

Clemson's $3 Million Coordinator Con - While everyone argues about transfer portal philosophy, Clemson is paying premium coordinator salaries for bottom-tier results. The portal debate is a perfect cover for coaching failures that are wasting championship windows.

Arkansas's 552-Yard Mirage - Sam Pittman's explosive offensive numbers mask systematic coaching failures in close games. Elite production means nothing if you can't execute when it matters most.

The common thread? Statistics that lie and conventional wisdom that protects bad coaching.

Coming Friday: Hot Seat Games of the Week

This weekend's games will determine which coaches move up our rankings and which ones start updating their resumes.

We'll break down the must-watch matchups where jobs are on the line, the upset alerts that could end careers, and the win-or-else scenarios that separate good coaches from unemployed ones. Because in college football, every Saturday is a job interview.

See you Friday for the games that matter most.

Keep watching the hot seats - they're about to get much hotter.

 

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