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  • COLLEGE FOOTBALL POWER SHIFTS: NIL CONTRACTS TIGHTEN, PROGRAMS TRANSFORM, AND BIG 12 EMERGES AS BATTLEGROUND FOR 2025

COLLEGE FOOTBALL POWER SHIFTS: NIL CONTRACTS TIGHTEN, PROGRAMS TRANSFORM, AND BIG 12 EMERGES AS BATTLEGROUND FOR 2025

From Contract Enforcements to Coaching Revivals: How the Sport's Traditional Order Is Being Rewritten as New Leaders and Policies Reshape the Landscape

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IN THIS ISSUE

Our BEST LINKS section hits on these stories this week

  • NIL Contracts have real consequences for athletes transferring to other schools. Especially if they transfer after cashing the check and before playing any football.

  • Cal’s new football GM made it clear: he’s in charge. Who is left out of the football room? Athletic Director Jim Knowlton.

  • The Rose Bowl agrees to start an hour earlier. The Grandaddy of them all has steadfastly held onto its 5:00 PM EST New Year’s Day start time for decades.

DEEP DIVE digs into 4 Big 12 Teams: BYU, Houston, TCU, and Baylor, three of whom have a legitimate shot at making the CFB Playoffs this season.

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BEST LINKS

NIL CONTRACTS JUST GOT REAL TEETH

The NIL landscape of college athletics is about to change forever.

CBS's Brandon Marcello has revealed that Arkansas-focused NIL collective Arkansas Edge isn't playing around with its transfer policies. Their contracts "commonly include language requiring players to reimburse 50% of the money remaining on their deal should they leave for another school."

What This Means For Players

This isn't theoretical – it's happening right now:

  • Former QB Madden Iamaleava "had roughly eight months remaining on his contract, meaning the collective expects a six-figure buyout."

  • Players used to ignoring these clauses are now facing real financial consequences.

  • The era of consequence-free transfers could be ending

The Bigger Implications

Marcello points out, "one NIL contract dispute will not bankrupt a multimillion-dollar NIL collective, but multiple players departing without paying buyouts could erode the school's negotiating power with future players."

Arkansas Has Legal Backup

The state's 2023 Arkansas Publicity Rights Act amendment gives the University powerful legal options against third parties interfering with existing NIL deals.

With Arkansas AD Hunter Yurachek publicly backing these enforcement efforts, everything is on the table. LINK

CAL FOOTBALL'S NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN

Ron Rivera has stepped into the chaos—and he's bringing a plan.

Amid a wave of player transfers and reported tension with the new offensive staff, Cal's newly appointed GM addressed the media with clear messaging: he reports directly to Chancellor Lyons, will collaborate with Coach Wilcox, and holds significant power over "operations, personnel, and staff."

The Big Questions Remain

  • Rivera acknowledges that relationships must be rebuilt with players, donors, and fans.

  • A mysterious "plan" was referenced, but details are scarce

  • Athletic Director Jim Knowlton's role appears diminished in the new structure

Time For Action, Not Words

"I will be involved with all facets of Cal Football," Rivera declared, embracing responsibility for NIL and revenue sharing.

But fans need more than promises—they need results as the program fights what the writer calls "an ever-growing rockslide." LINK

ROSE BOWL PROTECTS TRADITION WITH TIME SHIFT

The Granddaddy of Them All maintains its New Year's Day magic.

Rose Bowl officials have confirmed their commitment to preserving both the iconic New Year's Day slot and the famous sunset views with a slight kickoff time adjustment. This strategic move allows the historic bowl to secure its preferred quarterfinal position in the expanded College Football Playoff format.

Tradition Meets Playoff Reality

  • An earlier kickoff still preserves the beloved sunset during the game

  • Rose Bowl prioritizes New Year's Day slot over potential semifinal status

  • Contract details for 2026 and beyond are still being finalized

Practical Benefits Too

Rose Bowl Chief Administrative Officer Kevin Ash highlights additional advantages: "A quick game, you may get people out of there during sunlight and into their cars."

This thoughtful compromise ensures the Rose Bowl's unique atmosphere continues for generations. LINK

DEEP DIVE

Spring practices are wrapping up across the Big 12, and the race for conference supremacy is already heating up.

While the national media remains fixated on blue-blood programs, the real intrigue lies within college football's most competitive conference, where established programs are reloading, rebuilding teams are finding their identities, and every program believes they're just a few key pieces away from championship contention. This week, we dive deep into four programs that perfectly illustrate the Big 12's fascinating balance of potential, expectation, and transformation.

BYU Football: The Underdog's Revenge Tour Begins

Everyone loves to call BYU's 11-2 season a fluke.

But here's the inconvenient truth about the Cougars as they prepare for 2025:

  • They finished 11-2 overall (7-2 in Big 12 play)

  • They claimed a share of first place in just their second Big 12 season

  • They dominated Colorado 36-14 in the Alamo Bowl

  • They finished ranked #13 in the AP Poll (#14 in Coaches Poll)

  • They accomplished all this after being picked to finish 13th in preseason polls

Jake Retzlaff Is Ready To Silence The Critics

BYU's boom-or-bust quarterback threw for 2,947 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2024, while adding 511 rushing yards and six more scores on the ground. Yes, his 12 interceptions tied for the most in the Big 12, but most analysts miss his steady improvement curve.

For Retzlaff to take the next step, he'll need to:

  • Improve his 58% completion percentage

  • Cut down on his 18 "turnover-worthy" plays

  • Maintain his explosive playmaking ability

  • Keep his competitive fire that makes him special

The Transfer Portal Reshapes The Roster

The Cougars lost All-American KR/WR Keelan Marion but loaded up in the trenches with elite transfers:

  • Andrew Gentry (OL, Michigan)

  • Keanu Tanuvasa (DL, Utah)

  • Carsen Ryan (TE, Utah)

  • Tausili Akana (DE, Texas)

  • Hunter Clegg (DE, Utah)

The national media might project just 7.5 wins, but don't be shocked when BYU contends for another Big 12 title in 2025. Hot seat insiders Steve and Renee need to find a replacement for the game “Where’s Billy?” while watching BYU games.

Please read our complete DEEP DIVE into the BYU Cougars HERE. 

Houston Football: The Willie Fritz Effect Is Real

You don't accidentally win 212 games as a head coach.

After a challenging 4-8 debut season in 2024, Willie Fritz has executed a full-scale program transformation that could surprise the Big 12 this fall:

  • 15 strategic transfer additions targeting specific weaknesses

  • Improved coaching with SEC imports at coordinator positions

  • A more navigable schedule that creates realistic win opportunities

  • Momentum from quality upsets over Utah, Kansas State, and TCU last season

The Great Roster Reset Is Complete

Fritz isn't renovating the house—he's rebuilding the foundation.

Houston's aggressive approach to the transfer portal netted 15 experienced players, strategically targeting the team's most glaring weaknesses. Five offensive linemen lead the transfer class, addressing protection issues that plagued the offense throughout 2024.

The program's cultural transformation continues with a roster built specifically for Fritz's proven system—one that produced a 23-5 record in his final two seasons at Tulane.

Five Critical Improvements That Will Define Houston's Season

For the Cougars to make meaningful progress in 2025, five specific areas demand immediate attention:

  1. Offensive Production: The 14.0 points per game in 2024 would doom any Big 12 team

  2. Quarterback Development: Zeon Chriss must build on his promising finish to 2024

  3. Offensive Line Cohesion: The five transfer additions must gel quickly

  4. Turnover Creation: The defense needs to generate more game-changing plays

  5. Cultural Identity: With 63 new players in 2024 and more newcomers this year, establishing a unified team culture remains crucial

Year two of the Fritz era won't complete Houston's transformation, but it will reveal its trajectory. Please read our complete deep dive HERE.

TCU Football: The Big 12's Sleeping Giant Awakens

If you want to predict which Big 12 team is poised to make the most significant leap in 2025, look no further than TCU.

Sonny Dykes has built a recruiting machine in Fort Worth that's revolutionizing the program's talent profile:

  • The Horned Frogs signed the #1 recruiting class in the Big 12 and the highest-rated class in school history

  • Their 2025 class features six four-star recruits, including edge rusher Chad Woodfork, quarterback Adam Schobel, and receiver Terry Shelton.

  • This marks Sonny Dykes' third straight top-three Big 12 class, establishing TCU as the premier destination for Texas talent.

  • The class strategically addressed 2024 weaknesses, with 13 of 30 signees playing on the offensive or defensive line.

Last Season's Late Surge Was No Fluke

TCU laid the foundation for 2025 success with an impressive stretch run to close the 2024 campaign:

  • Closed with a 6-1 run and four straight victories

  • Dominated Louisiana 34-3 in the New Mexico Bowl

  • Developed a high-powered passing attack (312.9 yards per game, 66.8% completion)

  • Created 22 turnovers (11 interceptions, 11 fumble recoveries)

  • Quarterback Josh Hoover emerged as a star (3,949 yards, 27 TDs)

The Schedule: A Gauntlet Of Tests

TCU faces the most demanding schedule in college football this season—a challenge that will expose weaknesses or forge championship mettle.

The Horned Frogs will navigate:

  • 11 Power Four opponents (only one of two programs nationally with this distinction)

  • A Labor Day night opener at North Carolina

  • Traditionally challenging road environments at Arizona State, Kansas State, West Virginia, BYU, and Houston

  • Home tilts against rising programs like Colorado and traditional rival Baylor

Despite facing one of college football's most demanding schedules, TCU has the roster talent and coaching continuity to exceed most projections and potentially reach 9 wins.

Our Deep Dive into TCU reveals even more HERE. 

Baylor Football: Redemption Tour or Reality Check?

Dave Aranda's coaching career at Baylor was hanging by a thread after a disastrous 3-9 season in 2023 and a rough 2-4 start to 2024.

Then something magical happened—the Bears rattled off six straight wins, finished 8-5, secured a Texas Bowl appearance, and completely rewrote Aranda's future in Waco. Now entering 2025 with a contract through 2029, the once-scorching hot seat has cooled to room temperature.

The Offensive Arsenal Is Locked And Loaded

One sentence says it all: Baylor returns 9 of 11 starters from an offense that ranked 6th nationally with 440.1 yards per game.

This offensive continuity creates multiple advantages heading into 2025:

  • QB Sawyer Robertson (3,071 yards, 28 TDs) returns fully healthy after battling late-season ankle issues

  • Freshman All-American RB Bryson Washington (1,028 yards, 13 TDs) provides the perfect ground complement

  • Alabama transfer WR Kobe Prentice joins returning deep threat Josh Cameron (754 yards, 10 TDs)

  • The offensive line that helped convert 92% of red-zone opportunities (5th nationally) remains largely intact

Defensive Makeover Addresses Critical Weaknesses

The Bears' defense gave up 234.2 passing yards per game in 2024, with opposing quarterbacks completing 60.3% of their attempts.

Aranda's staff attacked these weaknesses with surgical precision:

  • Hired Paul Gonzales (13 years at TCU) as passing game coordinator and cornerbacks coach

  • Added Ohio State CB Calvin Simpson-Hunt and Northwestern S Devin Turner through the transfer portal

  • Brought in 380-pound NT Samu Taumanupepe from Texas A&M to strengthen the interior line

  • Repositioned veteran Cooper Lanz to defensive end to maximize his impact

Expectations Versus Reality

Fan surveys reveal dramatic optimism, with 44% predicting a 9-3 record, 28% forecasting 10-2, and 15% expecting 8-4.

However, the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff has raised the higher stakes, with nearly 70% of fans believing Baylor has a legitimate shot at making the field.

While Baylor has positioned itself as a competitive program in the Big 12, the difference between 10-2 and 7-5 often comes down to a handful of plays, injuries, and bounces of an oddly-shaped ball.

Read our complete Deep Dive into the world of Baylor football. (We know Hot Seat Team Member Jeff is paying close attention to the Bears this year! LINK

 

THAT’S A WRAP

A couple of housekeeping notes as we wrap up this issue.

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Next week: More Big 12

Look for Deep Dives into Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Kansas, Texas Tech, and UCF. 

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