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Hugh Freeze Has 2 Games Left. USC Already Has Their Excuse Ready. Inside College Football's Hottest Coaching Seats This Week

One team is already drafting excuses. The other is out of second chances. Your weekly guide to college football's most desperate coaching situations.

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IN THIS ISSUE

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USC's center goes down. Michigan gets healthier. And suddenly, the Trojans have a ready-made excuse if they lose. We break down why USC's 338 passing yards per game should still be enough to win 28-21—and why Kilian O'Connor's absence will dominate every post-game take if they don't.

Hugh Freeze has two games left. Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium is game one. Georgia should win easily. But desperation, chaos, and the most dangerous venue in college football have a funny way of rewriting the script. We're giving Auburn a legitimate 30-35% chance to pull the upset—here's why.

Plus:

  • Bill Belichick was supposed to save UNC football. Instead, he's destroying it. The shocking story behind college football's most baffling hire gone wrong.

  • How does Trent Dilfer still have a job? College football's biggest mystery, explained (sort of).

  • Max Browne's film breakdown: How UCLA shocked Penn State—the X's and O's behind the upset.

Two coaches on the brink. Two games that could end careers. And the excuses are already being drafted.

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Bill Belichick Was Supposed To Save UNC Football. Instead, He's Destroying It.

Six Super Bowl rings.

The greatest coach in NFL history.

And a 128th-place ranking out of 136 college football teams in scoring.

Bill Belichick sold UNC on becoming the "33rd NFL team." What they got instead is a toxic disaster that insiders describe as "an unstructured mess" with "no culture, no organization."

The problems start at the top and cascade down:

The locker room is divided. Belichick's transfers get preferential parking, more tickets, and skip consequences for missing workouts. Legacy players who stayed after Mack Brown got fired didn't even meet their new coach for weeks.

The coaching staff won't communicate. Parents have received zero emails, texts, or calls. Some coaches won't even share their phone numbers with players. The defensive coordinator "has not talked or had a conversation with most of the guys on defense."

The GM is alienating everyone. Michael Lombardi, Belichick's right-hand man with almost no college experience, is described by multiple sources as "rude" and "nasty." Nobody likes him.

The petty decisions are piling up. Non-travel roster players can't dress for home games. Belichick banned New England Patriots scouts from the facility out of spite. The stadium now empties at halftime.

UNC is paying $20 million for this.

And asking for patience.

The real question isn't whether Belichick will turn it around. It's whether his legendary reputation will survive what's happening in Chapel Hill. Read about it here: UNC Culture Chaos

How Trent Dilfer Still Has A Job Is College Football's Biggest Mystery

9 wins in 3 years.

That's not a typo.

Trent Dilfer has gone 9-20 at UAB, nearly lost to an FCS team, got demolished by a mediocre Army squad, and held a post-game press conference where almost nobody showed up.

And he's still the head coach.

This isn't about giving a rebuilding project time to develop. This is about a program that clawed its way back from complete elimination now watching itself circle the drain under toxic leadership.

The worst part? UAB should be good.

The transfer portal exists. Alabama produces talent everywhere. Programs like Tulane, Houston, and Navy are thriving in the same conference. Bowl games should be the baseline expectation, not a fantasy.

Instead, fans get a coach who clearly doesn't want to be there leading a team that can't compete.

The biggest mystery in college football isn't the playoff picture. It's why UAB keeps paying someone to destroy what they worked so hard to rebuild. Story here

ESPN Analyst Max Browne breaks down how the worst team in college football (UCLA) beat Penn State.

All right, Kent State and North Carolina fans could make a case for their team being worse, but you get the point. Jerry Neuheisel, a first-time play-caller who took over mid-season, completely dismantled James Franklin's defense. And Penn State's response? Crickets. No adjustments. No answers. Nothing.

Max Browne breaks down exactly what Neuheisel did that left Franklin and DC Jim Knowles looking completely lost:

GAMES WE’RE FOLLOWING THIS WEEK

USC's Starting Center Kilian O'Connor Is Out vs Michigan's Elite Defense. Here's Why The Trojans' 338 Passing Yards Per Game Still Wins Them The Game 28-21 (And Why The Injury Will Be The Go-To Excuse If They Lose)

Michigan's defense is elite against the run, but their passing game is anemic.

USC moves the ball through the air with surgical precision, racking up 338 passing yards per game with a 72.1% completion rate. They're balanced, explosive, and averaging 565 total yards per game. Meanwhile, Michigan grinds out 237.8 rushing yards per game at 6.4 yards per carry, but their passing attack is borderline nonexistent—just 200.6 yards per game with less than one passing touchdown per game. These teams are mirror opposites, and that asymmetry will decide the game.

But there's a wrinkle: injuries could tilt this matchup in unexpected ways.

The Injury Factor: USC's Achilles Heel or Michigan's Opening?

USC loses their starting center heading into the biggest test of their season.

Kilian O'Connor went down with a leg injury against Illinois and will miss multiple weeks, including this game. Losing your starting center—a team leader and critical piece of the offensive line—against Michigan's dominant defensive front isn't ideal. O'Connor has been the anchor in the middle, and now USC must replace him on the road against a defense that allows just 77 rushing yards per game.

Without O'Connor, pass protection timing gets disrupted. Run blocking schemes lose continuity. Michigan's defensive front will attack the backup center relentlessly, looking to generate pressure and force USC's quarterback into mistakes. If USC struggles to protect the pocket, their explosive passing game becomes significantly less explosive.

If USC loses, this injury becomes the convenient narrative.

Michigan, meanwhile, is getting healthier at the perfect time.

Starting left guard Giovanni El-Hadi and tight end Hogan Hansen are both probable to return after missing time with injuries. El-Hadi hasn't played since Week 2 against Oklahoma due to a lower-body injury. Hansen has been in and out of the lineup all season. Getting both back strengthens Michigan's offensive line for their power rushing attack and gives their limited passing game another weapon.

The timing couldn't be better for Michigan. They're healthier now than they've been all season, and they're facing a USC team with a gaping hole in the middle of their offensive line.

This sets up a fascinating dynamic: USC's strength versus Michigan's strength, but with USC compromised.

Michigan's Identity: Ground and Pound or Nothing

Michigan's offense runs through one dimension.

Their rushing attack is legitimate. 237.8 yards per game. 6.4 yards per carry. 3.4 rushing touchdowns per game. They control the line of scrimmage, move the chains on the ground, and wear down defenses with physical football. With El-Hadi back, the offensive line gets even stronger. It's Big Ten football at its finest.

But the passing game? It's a liability. Michigan completes just 58.8% of passes for 200.6 yards per game with 0.6 passing touchdowns per game. That's not a typo—they throw a touchdown pass roughly every other game. Hansen's return helps, but he's not transforming this passing attack overnight. When Michigan needs to throw to win, they're in trouble.

This one-dimensional approach works when you dominate time of possession and the opponent can't score quickly.

Michigan's defense, however, is another story entirely.

They allow just 77 rushing yards per game at 2.4 yards per carry. That's suffocating. Opposing running backs hit a brick wall. Michigan forces 1.8 turnovers per game, commits just 4 penalties per game, and allows only 283.4 total yards per game. The run defense is elite, but the pass defense allows 206.4 yards per game at a 65.1% completion rate. Teams can throw on Michigan.

That's the blueprint to beat them.

USC's Blueprint: Balance, Explosiveness, and Big Plays—With a Question Mark

USC does what Michigan can't—they hurt you through the air.

Quarterback play matters, and USC has it. 338 passing yards per game. 72.1% completion rate. 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. They're efficient, explosive, and capable of scoring in bunches. Add 227 rushing yards per game at 6.4 yards per carry, and you have a balanced attack that generates 565 total yards per game. That's 126.6 more yards per game than Michigan.

USC averages 8.5 yards per play. That's explosive. They generate 26.6 first downs per game. They move the chains, sustain drives, and score points.

But can they do it without O'Connor against Michigan's ferocious defensive front?

USC's defense is vulnerable on the ground and through the air.

They allow 108.4 rushing yards per game at 3.5 yards per carry—not terrible, but exploitable by Michigan's power rushing attack, especially with El-Hadi back anchoring the line. They also give up 251 passing yards per game and 2.2 passing touchdowns per game. Their defense forces 1.8 turnovers per game (same as Michigan), but they allow 359.4 total yards per game. That's 76 more yards than Michigan allows.

And then there's the penalty problem. USC commits 8.2 penalties per game for 78.4 yards. That's double Michigan's penalty rate. Drive killers. Momentum swingers. Self-inflicted wounds.

Those penalties will matter even more if the offensive line struggles without O'Connor.

When USC Has the Ball: Can They Protect the Quarterback?

USC's passing game should feast—if the backup center holds up.

Michigan allows 206.4 passing yards per game, and USC throws for 338. Michigan's secondary is the weak link in an otherwise strong defense, and USC's quarterback will exploit it. Normally, you'd expect 300-350 passing yards from USC with multiple explosive plays downfield.

But without O'Connor? Michigan's defensive line will attack. They'll blitz the A-gaps. They'll stunt and twist to confuse the backup center. They'll generate pressure up the middle and force USC's quarterback off his spot. If the protection breaks down, USC's completion percentage drops, the explosive plays disappear, and the offensive rhythm gets disrupted.

Still, USC's scheme and quarterback are talented enough to adapt. Expect quick-hitting passes, screens, and play-action to neutralize Michigan's pass rush. Expect 280-320 passing yards from USC—strong, but not dominant.

The run game is where Michigan wins. USC averages 227 rushing yards per game, but Michigan allows just 77. USC will struggle to establish the run against Michigan's dominant defensive front. Expect 80-110 rushing yards from USC—well below their average.

USC will move the ball primarily through the air, generating 370-430 total yards and scoring 24-28 points.

Michigan's defense will bend but not break.

They'll stop the run cold, force USC into obvious passing situations, and generate pressure up the middle without O'Connor. They'll create a turnover or two. But they won't be able to slow down USC's passing attack enough to keep this a low-scoring game. USC scores quickly, and Michigan's defense will be on the field more than they'd like.

The key question: Can Michigan's offense keep pace?

When Michigan Has the Ball: Power Rushing Meets Stackable Boxes

Michigan will grind, but not dominate.

USC allows 108.4 rushing yards per game, which is exploitable. With El-Hadi back, Michigan's offensive line is at full strength. Michigan should rush for 190-220 yards—solid production, right at their 237.8-yard average. They'll establish the run early, control the clock, and keep USC's explosive offense off the field.

But when Michigan is forced to throw? Trouble. Even with Hansen back, expect 160-180 passing yards on low-efficiency throws. USC's defense forces 1.8 turnovers per game, and Michigan's quarterback will face pressure on obvious passing downs. If Michigan falls behind, their one-dimensional offense becomes a liability.

Michigan will generate 350-400 total yards and score 20-24 points.

USC's defense will make Michigan one-dimensional.

They'll load the box, force Michigan into third-and-long situations, and dare them to throw. Michigan's inability to generate explosive plays through the air means they'll struggle to sustain drives when they fall behind. Time of possession will favor Michigan, but points will favor USC.

And that's the problem.

The Verdict: Explosive Offense Beats One-Dimensional Grinding (Unless the Center Injury Changes Everything)

USC wins, 28-21.

Michigan controls the line of scrimmage, wins time of possession, and keeps the game competitive through four quarters with physical, ground-and-pound football. El-Hadi and Hansen back in the lineup give Michigan their best offensive look of the season. They score consistently, grind out 350-plus yards, and make USC work for every point.

But USC's dynamic passing game—even compromised without O'Connor—exploits Michigan's vulnerable secondary enough to stay ahead. USC scores quickly. Michigan grinds slowly. That mismatch is still decisive.

The game stays tight throughout. Michigan's healthier offensive line helps them sustain drives. USC's backup center struggles at times, limiting the explosive plays. But USC's scheme, quarterback talent, and overall offensive firepower prove too much for a Michigan team that still can't match their scoring through the air.

The final score is closer than expected, but the outcome is never really in doubt.

The wildcard: If USC's backup center gets overwhelmed early, Michigan could steal this game. If Michigan's defensive line dominates the interior and forces turnovers, their ball-control offense could grind out a stunning road upset. But USC's passing game talent should be enough to overcome the center loss and secure the win.

And if USC loses? Don't worry—the O'Connor injury will be the headline, not the performance.

Hugh Freeze's 2-Game Countdown Starts Saturday Night

Saturday. 7:30 PM EDT. Jordan-Hare Stadium.

This isn't speculation anymore.

Multiple sources close to the program indicate Hugh Freeze has roughly two games to turn things around before Auburn's boosters and administration make a change. ON3 and AL.com are already covering the mounting pressure. Saturday night's matchup against #10 Georgia is game one of what could be his final stand.

And it's happening in the most dangerous venue in college football.

The Numbers Say Georgia Wins Easily

Georgia is the better team. It's not even close.

  • 438.6 yards per game vs Auburn's 342.2

  • 34.6 points per game vs Auburn's 27.6

  • Balanced attack: 231.8 passing, 206.8 rushing

  • Already won at #15 Tennessee this season

Auburn's offense is borderline embarrassing. They scored 10 points at Texas A&M. Their passing game averages just 173.2 yards per game with only 1.0 touchdown. That's FCS-level production in the SEC.

On paper, Georgia should win by two touchdowns.

But Jordan-Hare At Night Doesn't Care About Paper

Here's what the stats don't tell you.

Auburn at home, under the lights, with everything on the line, is a completely different animal. The "Kick Six" happened here. Upsets of LSU, Alabama, and Georgia happened here. Strange, inexplicable things happen at Jordan-Hare after dark.

Hugh Freeze knows he's coaching for his career. Desperation breeds creativity. Watch for trick plays, fake punts, and ultra-aggressive fourth-down calls. Conventional football won't beat Georgia—he needs chaos.

And the crowd will be absolutely deafening.

Georgia averages 40.8 penalty yards per game. Put them on the road in that environment, and false starts multiply. Communication becomes impossible. Auburn's elite ball security (0.2 turnovers per game) combined with Georgia's turnover issues (1.4 per game) creates a real path to upset.

What To Watch For

When Georgia has the ball: Can Auburn's elite run defense (82 yards allowed per game) hold up against Georgia's explosive ground game (206.8 yards, 3.2 TDs per game)? If Auburn stops the run, they force Georgia one-dimensional. But with Georgia's balance, that's nearly impossible.

When Auburn has the ball: Can they throw at all? If Auburn comes out scared and conservative, they have no chance. Hugh Freeze needs to open up the playbook and take shots downfield to keep Georgia honest.

The X-Factor: Time of possession. Auburn needs to shorten this game with long, grinding drives. If they get into a shootout, they lose by three touchdowns.

Final Score Prediction: Georgia 31, Auburn 20

Georgia's talent wins out over 60 minutes.

But don't be shocked if Auburn pulls the upset. I give them a legitimate 30-35% chance. That's not "maybe they get lucky." That's a real path to victory if Hugh Freeze calls the game of his life and the crowd forces three false starts at crucial moments.

The smart money is on Georgia by 7-9 points.

The fun money is on Auburn and chaos.

The Bottom Line: Hugh Freeze's two-game countdown starts Saturday night. Win, and he buys himself another week. Lose at home to Georgia with that anemic offense, and he'll be coaching his final game next week—whether anyone admits it publicly or not.

See you Saturday night.

 

THAT’S A WRAP

USC has their excuse locked and loaded. If the Trojans lose to Michigan, Kilian O'Connor's injury will dominate every headline, talk show, and message board. The narrative writes itself.

Hugh Freeze doesn't get that luxury. He gets two games to save his job, and Saturday night's showdown with Georgia at Jordan-Hare is game one. Win, and he buys another week. Lose with that anemic offense, and he's coaching on borrowed time.

Bill Belichick's UNC disaster continues. Trent Dilfer somehow still has a job. And Max Browne's film breakdown of UCLA's Penn State upset made complex X's and O's actually entertaining—check it out if you haven't already.

Our weekly Hot Seat Rankings drop Tuesday. The intel is rolling in, and some coaches are moving up the list faster than expected. We've got confirmed sources indicating a few schools are already planning season-end replacements—some names will surprise you.

See you Tuesday. And buckle up for Saturday night.

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