IN THIS ISSUE

Best Links

• SEC, Big Ten discussing new formats for football championship weekend

• Wisconsin and off-season hot seat leader Luke Fickell agree to a contract extension through 2032. So, how hot is that seat?

• Bubble Watch: Lessons of a bracket reveal What can a fake slice of a nonexistent tournament teach us? (Spoiler: not much)

Deep Dive

If there's one thing I've learned building Deep Dive over the years, it's that college football never truly sleeps. The period between seasons isn't just a gap in the calendar – it's where the real chess match begins. Over the next few months, we're embarking on our most ambitious project yet: dissecting all 135 FBS teams heading into 2025. We're leaving no stone unturned for every roster move, coaching shuffle, or program trajectory. Think of this as your comprehensive battle plan for the season ahead. You'll get conference breakdowns that cut through the noise, hot seat rankings that tell you who's feeling the heat, and analysis that goes deeper than the box scores. We're not here to give you surface-level takes but to give you the edge.

We start this week in the ACC with a breakdown of two teams – Boston College Golden Eagles and California Golden Bears.

BEST LINKS

Significant changes could be in store for Championship Weekend: The SEC and Big Ten are considering a dramatic overhaul of its championship weekend format in a groundbreaking development for college football. The conferences explore the possibility of transforming the traditional single championship game into a series of playoff-style matchups that serve as play-in games for the College Football Playoff. Most strikingly, one proposal would create a tournament-style format where even the conference's eighth-ranked team could theoretically earn a playoff bid by defeating the top seed. This potential restructuring comes amid discussions between the SEC and Big Ten about securing guaranteed spots in an expanded 14-team playoff field, signaling a significant shift in how college football's postseason could be determined. LINK

Wisconsin gives Fickell an extension: Despite a challenging 5-7 season in 2024 that landed him atop preseason hot seat rankings, Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell has received a surprising vote of confidence from the university in the form of a contract extension through 2032. The extension adds another year to his previous deal. It comes at a time when Fickell, who earns $7.7 million annually as the nation's 18th highest-paid coach, has posted a modest 12-13 record in his first two seasons with the Badgers after his successful stint at Cincinnati. LINK

Bubble Watch: Lessons of a bracket reveal: In a refreshing counterpoint to college football's weekly mock playoff rankings, the NCAA Tournament selection committee's annual bracket preview stands as a model of restraint and practicality. While football generates endless debate with its frequent provisional rankings, basketball's approach – a single reveal of the top 16 seeds accompanied by appropriate caveats about its temporary nature – offers valuable insights into the committee's thinking while avoiding the constant churn of meaningless midseason predictions. LINK

DEEP DIVE

Want to know what 2025 means for Boston College football?

The numbers tell a story that changes everything about BC's outlook—and it's not the story most people are telling.

The Hidden Truth Behind BC's 2024 Success

When people talk about Boston College's 2024 season, they focus on the flashy headlines:

• The stunning upset over #10 Florida State (28-13)

• Making it to the Pinstripe Bowl

• A winning conference record that shocked the ACC

• Four explosive offensive performances to close the season (37, 28, 41, and 34 points)

But here's what they're missing: BC built their success on a foundation deeper than big moments.

The Real Numbers That Matter

The Eagles didn't just run the ball well—they dominated on the ground:

• Averaged 166.1 rushing yards per game across 13 games

• Exploded for 263 yards against Florida State's elite defense

• Crushed Syracuse with 313 yards on the ground

• Dominated Duquesne with 302 rushing yards

• Accumulated 2,159 total rushing yards for the season

But here's what makes this even more interesting: BC's defense showed they could be absolute game-wreckers:

• Snatched 17 interceptions (ranked among ACC leaders)

• Generated 31 sacks (including 16.5 from Donovan Ezeiruaku alone)

• Created chaos with 72 tackles for loss

• Held opponents to just 114.9 rushing yards per game

Why 2025 Is More Complicated Than Anyone Realizes

Yes, the transfer portal has thrown BC into chaos. The losses are significant:

• Thomas Castellanos (1,366 yards, 18 TDs, 61.5% completion rate) to Florida State

• Kye Robichaux (744 yards, 10 TDs, 4.3 yards per carry) to graduation

• Donovan Ezeiruaku (16.5 sacks, 21 TFL) to the NFL

• Four key defensive backs who combined for 7 interceptions

But here's what the doom-and-gloom predictions are missing:

The Eagles have proven strengths they can build on:

• A dominant rushing attack that returns key pieces like Treshaun Ward (406 yards, 5.3 YPC)

• A defense that creates turnovers at an elite level

• Special teams that consistently win the field position battle (16.4 yards per kick return)

• An almost unbeatable home-field advantage (5-2 at Alumni Stadium)

• A receiving corps that showed flashes (Lewis Bond: 67 catches, 689 yards)

The Real Challenges That Will Define 2025

Three specific weaknesses need fixing:

1. A Pass Defense in Transition:

• Gave up 245.8 yards per game through the air

• Allowed 17 passing touchdowns

• Lost four key defensive backs to the transfer portal

• Must rebuild while facing elite ACC quarterbacks

2. Quarterback Consistency Issues:

• Completion percentages ranged from 84.6% to 46.4%

• The two-QB system never found the perfect rhythm

• Castellanos and James combined for 2,591 yards but struggled in key moments

• Need Dylan Lonergan to master O'Brien's system quickly

3. Road Game Struggles:

• 1-4 record away from Alumni Stadium

• Averaged just 21 points per game on the road

• Defense allowed 32.8 points per game in road losses

• Must solve this to compete in expanded ACC

Why Brad Crawford's 24/7 3-9 Prediction Misses the Mark

The numbers tell a different story about BC's foundation:

1. O'Brien's Transfer Portal Victories:

• Dylan Lonergan: Former 4-star QB with elite arm talent

• Ty Lockwood: SEC-tested tight end who knows Lonergan

• VJ Wilkins: FCS All-American (90 catches, 1,055 yards)

• Chuck Nnaeto: Immediate impact edge rusher

• Tommy Matheson: Ivy League-trained offensive line depth

2. Returning Defensive Talent:

• Amari Jackson leads experienced secondary

• Khari Johnson brings veteran leadership

• Jordan Thomas brings NFL coaching experience to D-line

3. Special Teams Excellence:

• 16.4 yards per kick return

• 5.9 yards per punt return

• Field position advantage in 9 of 13 games

The Bottom Line: What Vegas Isn't Seeing

Teams that can run the ball (166.1 YPG), create turnovers (17 INTs), and dominate at home (5-2) don't collapse to 3-9.

The real question isn't whether BC will fall apart—it's how high they can climb if they:

• Develop quarterback consistency under O'Brien's tutelage

• Transform their road performance (1-4 to even 3-2 changes everything)

• Maintain defensive playmaking despite key losses

• Continue their rushing dominance with a new backfield

The spring practice period will reveal whether this roster reconstruction can maintain Boston College's upward trajectory in an increasingly competitive ACC.

But one thing's certain: The numbers show a program with a stronger foundation than the critics realize.

The O'Brien Factor: Beyond the Numbers

Here's what makes Bill O'Brien's situation at Boston College fascinating heading into 2025:

Most media outlets focus on the obvious:

• His 7-6 record in year one

• The Florida State upset

• His NFL and Alabama pedigree

But they're missing the deeper story of what makes a coach successful at BC.

Understanding BC's Coaching Metrics

At Coaches Hot Seat, we measure coaching performance through two key metrics that you won't find anywhere else:

• MA (Minimum Acceptable Winning Percentage): The baseline winning percentage a coach needs to maintain job security

• WPT (Winning Percentage Target): The winning percentage that would make the fanbase genuinely happy

In O'Brien's case, there's good news on both fronts:

• He exceeded expectations in year one

• The Syracuse rivalry win boosted his standing

• His 7-6 record (.538) showed immediate improvement

The Contract Situation

While private schools like BC keep contract details close to the vest, here's what we know about O'Brien's deal:

• Estimated $5 million annual base salary (his highest as head coach)

• It contains a unique clause preventing NFL departures

• Includes BC's largest-ever assistant coach salary pool

• Features performance incentives backloaded into later years

Why This Matters for 2025

O'Brien's position heading into 2025 is stronger than most realize:

• His seat is cool after beating year one expectations

• The Syracuse rivalry win provides breathing room

• He hasn't yet faced other major rivals (Notre Dame, UMass, Holy Cross)

• The contract structure suggests BC and O’Brien see this as a long-term relationship

But here's what makes 2025 crucial: O'Brien must prove year one wasn't a fluke while managing BC's most significant roster turnover in years.

The combination of contractual stability and early success gives O'Brien something rare in college football: time to build his program the right way. Whether he can capitalize on that opportunity will define BC's trajectory for years.

Cal Football 2025: A Program at the Crossroads

Every college football program has a breaking point.

That point for the California Golden Bears is a .490 winning percentage—what industry insiders call the "Minimum Acceptable" (MA) winning percentage. This proprietary metric, developed by Coaches Hot Seat (the authority on coaching job security), is a data-driven warning system. The countdown typically begins when a coach's record falls below this threshold.

Justin Wilcox’s winning percentage currently sits at .457.

The Numbers Tell A Story (And It's Not A Happy One)

Let's look at Cal's progression over the past three seasons:

• 2022: 4-8 overall (2-7 in conference)

• 2023: 6-7 overall (4-5 in conference)

• 2024: 6-7 overall (2-6 in conference)

This isn't just a pattern—it's a problem. Wilcox’s tenure has been defined by incremental improvements followed by stagnation. The trajectory suggests a program stuck in neutral rather than building towards sustained success.

The $15 Million Question

Here's what makes Cal's situation particularly fascinating:

• Wilcox is under contract through 2027

• His 2025 compensation package totals $4.8 million

• His buyout sits at approximately $15 million

• His winning percentage remains below the critical .490 threshold

The Bears find themselves caught between the cost of change and the price of staying the same. Administrators loathe paying hefty buyouts, but they also know stagnation can cost even more—lost ticket sales, declining donations, and recruiting struggles. It’s a classic case of fiscal conservatism vs. competitive ambition.

But Here's Where It Gets Interesting

Sensing the pressure, Wilcox has made his boldest move yet: a complete offensive overhaul.

The headline-grabber? Bryan Harsin as offensive coordinator. The subplot? Nick Rolovich as a senior offensive assistant.

Harsin, the former Auburn head coach, brings a proven offensive system but arrives with baggage after a tumultuous SEC tenure. Rolovich getting a shot at a new coaching gig is fascinating—not just because of his high-risk, high-reward offensive mind but also because his tenure at Washington State ended over his refusal to comply with state vaccine mandates, not because of poor coaching.

Here's what these moves tell us:

• Wilcox finally acknowledges the need for wholesale offensive change.

• The program is willing to take calculated risks on controversial but talented coaches.

• The "defensive-minded" head coach is ceding offensive control.

The Numbers That Matter

Take a look at this offensive progression (or regression):

The decline in rushing yards from 2023 to 2024 is alarming. The offense isn’t just struggling—it’s losing its identity. For a team that relies on ball control and keeping its defense fresh, that’s a major red flag.

But here's the silver lining—defensive improvement:

Wilcox’s defenses remain his calling card, and the strides made in 2024 suggest a unit capable of keeping Cal competitive. But in today's college football landscape, defense alone doesn’t win championships—or job security.

The X-Factor Nobody's Talking About

Rich Lyons.

Cal's new chancellor isn’t just any administrator—he’s the first Cal undergraduate to hold the position in nearly a century. And he’s already talking about making football “self-supporting.”

This matters for three reasons:

1. It signals potential changes in program evaluation. Wilcox isn’t just competing against expectations; he’s competing against financial sustainability models.

2. It suggests new approaches to resource allocation. Don't expect deep-pocketed institutional support if the football program can't prove its worth.

3. It adds another layer of pressure to perform. Wilcox now has a boss who understands the program's impact on the university and might not be as patient as previous chancellors.

Here's What Nobody Wants To Say Out Loud

The 2025 season isn’t just another year for Cal football.

It's a referendum.

• On Wilcox.

• On the program’s direction.

• On whether Cal can compete in the modern college football landscape.

With realignment reshaping conferences, NIL deals changing recruiting, and fan engagement at a premium, the Golden Bears can’t afford to drift any further into mediocrity. A failure to break through in 2025 could push the program toward drastic change.

The Bottom Line

The tools for success are there:

• New offensive philosophy

• Improved defensive metrics

• Fresh administrative perspective

• Second year in the ACC (without having to face Miami, Clemson, or Florida State)

But here's the truth nobody wants to acknowledge:

None of it matters if Cal can’t finally break through that .490 threshold.

Because in college football, you either evolve or dissolve.

And 2025 will tell us which path Cal has chosen.

THAT’S A WRAP

As we wrap up this week's deep dive, I can tell you're feeling the same anticipation for the upcoming season. The storylines are rich, the narratives are complex, and we're just getting started with our conference breakdown. There's something magnetic about this time of year—when every team still has a shot, every coach still has a job, and every fan base still believes their team could be the one to shock the world. Keep those emails coming (your passion for BC and Cal has been infectious). Don't be shy about sharing this newsletter with fellow college football addicts who appreciate the deeper story behind the headlines. Next week, we'll continue our march through the ACC trenches, and trust me, you won't want to miss our upcoming special issue, where we'll pull back the curtain on which coaches might be updating their résumés by season's end.