Good morning. Mark here.

This week's theme: bets that look good on paper - until you check the math.

Michigan State just hired Pat Fitzgerald to fix their program. The narrative is about baggage—the hazing scandal, the two years away, the "vindicated" quote. But the real story is in the splits: .309 against ranked opponents, .469 on the road, 5-8 in bowls. MSU is betting $60 million that those numbers improve with better talent. The splits suggest that's a gamble, not a plan.

Meanwhile, every AD in America watched Indiana make the playoff and started dreaming. Dan Wolken at Yahoo reminds them that Curt Cignetti's $93M contract and a $35M roster only works if you've got 100K seats to fill. Most don't. And the SEC is still dominating the TV ratings - but eyeballs and wins aren't moving together the way the conference expected.

Oh, and the NCAA President is a reply guy now. Literally. Charlie Baker runs his own X account, seven days a week, mixing Clint Eastwood takes with transfer portal policy. Follow him. He's actually reading.

One more thing: Bobby Hurley said out loud what most coaches never admit. "I'm failing. I can't get through to the team." That's basketball, not our beat - but the lesson translates to any sideline.

Let's get into it.

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NCAA President Charlie Baker runs his own X account.

Not his comms team. Not an intern. Him. Seven days a week, mixing takes on Clint Eastwood's action credentials with actual policy positions on transfer portal betting. Front Office Sports' Ben Horney details how the NCAA President has turned the platform into his personal focus group - monitoring what student-athletes, coaches, and reporters are actually saying in real time.

Why this matters to you: Follow him. The guy making decisions that shape college football's future is reading the replies - and he's responding to them. Your take on NIL, the transfer portal, or conference realignment might actually land on his radar. That's rare access to power.

More from Ben Horney here: [LINK]

Every AD in America watched the Hoosiers make the playoff.

Now they're all thinking the same thing: "What if we went all-in on football too?" Yahoo's Dan Wolken pumps the brakes. Curt Cignetti's 8-year, $93M contract and a roster that could hit $35M annually is a massive bet, one that only pays off if you have the stadium revenue to back it up. One basketball GM put it bluntly: schools without 100K seats might be smarter doubling down on hoops, where the NIL math actually works in their favor.

Why this matters to you: Your school's AD is having this exact conversation right now. The pressure to chase Indiana's magic will be intense - and the programs that resist the shiny object might be the ones that survive the next five years financially intact. Watch for who zigs while everyone else zags.

More here: [LINK]

"I'm failing. I can't get through to the team."

That's not media spin. That's Arizona State Basketball Coach Bobby Hurley, unprompted, after a home loss to a mediocre West Virginia squad. The New York Post's Matt Ehalt breaks down what reads like a coach eulogizing his own tenure - 11 seasons, one NCAA Tournament appearance in six years, and a home environment he calls "sterile" and "dreadful" dating back to pre-COVID. When a coach publicly admits his voice isn't working with the group, the end is usually already written.

Why this matters to you: Yes, this is basketball, not our usual beat. But the lesson translates. This is what the final days look like across any sport. Not a blowup, not a scandal - just a coach who's run out of ways to reach his roster and is honest enough to say it out loud. If you're watching your own program's football coach struggle to connect, Hurley's quotes are the template for what comes next.

More here: [LINK]

TV ratings aren't just vanity metrics.

They're the foundation of media rights deals, which fund everything else. NILnomics breaks down the 2025 season's top 25 most-watched games, and the picture is stark: 15 of the 20 teams that appeared are SEC schools. Alabama alone had 8 games crack the top 25 - more than every ACC team combined. ABC dominated the broadcast landscape, and the data reveals attention clusters at the bookends of the season (Week 1 and rivalry week).

Why this matters to you: Eyeballs and wins don't always move together, and neither do TV ratings and NIL war chests. The SEC still commands the most attention, but translating viewership into on-field dominance is proving harder than the conference expected. That gap between brand and performance is one of the most interesting tensions in the sport right now. NILnomics is a newsletter that is worth a subscribe.

More here: [LINK]

Everybody's talking about the baggage.

The hazing scandal. The two years away. The "100 percent vindicated" quote that will resurface every losing streak.

That's the easy narrative.

But the harder question is hiding in the splits.

That's fewer than one in three against ranked opponents. Below .500 away from home. And 5-8 in bowl games - games where both teams have a month to prepare.

These aren't cherry-picked stats.

They're the games that define whether you're building a program or just surviving.

Northwestern is one of the hardest jobs in football. Elite academics. Tiny recruiting pool. Fitzgerald won two Big Ten West titles with structural disadvantages most coaches never face.

Michigan State doesn't have those constraints.

So the question becomes: Do the splits improve with better players - or are they baked into his coaching DNA?

His record against ranked teams wasn't a talent problem. It was a performance problem. Scheme. Adjustments. Preparation against elite competition.

At Northwestern, he was always the underdog.

We never saw if he could win with talent.

Michigan State is betting the answer is yes. They're paying $30 million to find out - after already eating $30 million on Jonathan Smith.

That's $60 million on a hypothesis.

The splits say it's a gamble, not a plan.

Read our deeper analysis here: [LINK]

The thread connecting all of this week's stories is the same: the gap between narrative and numbers.

Fitzgerald's baggage makes for good headlines. His splits tell you whether he can actually win. Indiana's playoff run is inspiring. The math says most schools can't afford to chase it. The SEC dominates TV ratings. That hasn't translated to playoff dominance—yet.

In college football, the story everyone's talking about is rarely the story that matters.

Our job is to find the other one.

See you Tuesday.

— Mark

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