Mountain West Conference Coaches Hot Seat Rankings: 2025 Season Preview

DEEP DIVE

Mountain West Conference Coaches Hot Seat Rankings (1 = Hottest, 12 = Safest)

1. Jeff Choate (Nevada) - Hot seat rating: 0.451

• 3-10 debut with 0-7 conference record

• Third consecutive 10-loss season for the program

• Massive roster overhaul (53 new players) admits year-one failures

• Must show dramatic improvement or face elimination

2. Jay Sawvel (Wyoming) - Hot seat rating: 0.531

• Brutal 3-9 debut replacing beloved Craig Bohl

• Lost defensive identity while the offense remained anemic

• Unusual pressure for second-year coach

• Border War struggles could seal fate

3. Sean Lewis (San Diego State) - Hot seat rating: 0.531

• Disappointing 3-9 debut after innovative reputation

• Lost starting QB Danny O'Neil to transfer

• AztecFAST system must prove its viability quickly

• The transfer portal era demands faster results

4. Timmy Chang (Hawaii) - Hot seat rating: 0.441

• 13-25 record despite cultural restoration success

• Wins remain elusive despite community support

• Micah Alejado emergence could save his tenure

• Unique cultural protection provides some insulation

5. Ken Niumatalolo (San Jose State) - Hot seat rating: 1.221

• A successful first season masks concerning trends

• Lost elite receivers (Nash/Lockhart) who carried the offense

• 2025 schedule includes challenging road tests

• May have peaked early with inherited talent

6. Jay Norvell (Colorado State) - Hot seat rating: 0.987

• Clear trajectory improvement, but championship expectations now

• Pac-12 transition in 2026 creates urgency

• Defensive reconstruction while maintaining offensive success

• Must prove sustainable excellence, not just competence

7. Jason Eck (New Mexico) - New Hire

• New coach protection with solid rebuilding credentials

• Inherited decent offensive pieces but terrible defense

• Eck’s Idaho success suggests competent program building

• Maximum institutional patience as a new hire

8. Matt Entz (Fresno State) - New Hire

• Championship pedigree from NDSU provides credibility

• Pac-12 preparation timeline allows for patient building

• Proven ability to develop talent and win at the highest levels

• Administrative commitment to a systematic rebuild

9. Spencer Danielson (Boise State) - Hot seat rating: 1.073

• 15-3 record and conference championship as interim-turned-permanent

• Five-year extension demonstrates institutional confidence

• 2025 represents his first real coaching test without generational talent like Ashton Jeanty

• Must prove early success wasn't just a result of inherited elite players

10. Troy Calhoun (Air Force) - Hot seat rating: 1.124

• 18 seasons of sustained excellence at a unique institution

• Contract through 2029 with a perfect cultural fit

• Service academy metrics transcend traditional win-loss evaluation

• Institutional security unmatched in the conference

11. Bronco Mendenhall (Utah State) - New hire

• Proven 140-88 career record buys maximum patience

• Rebuilding program with realistic year-one expectations

• Track record at Virginia and BYU demonstrates adaptability

• Administrative understanding of the rebuilding timeline

12. Dan Mullen (UNLV) - New hire

• Elite coaching resume and the highest conference salary

• UNLV invested heavily, knowing it acquired a proven winner

• SEC and Florida success provides ultimate credibility

• Zero pressure in year one with championship expectations deferred

Key Insights

Most Likely to Earn Hot Seat Status Entering 2026:

• Jeff Choate (Nevada) - Year two struggles could put him in real danger for year three

• Jay Sawvel (Wyoming) - Another disappointing season makes year three critical

• Sean Lewis (SDSU) - Needs to show the AztecFAST system works or face year three pressure

Coaches Who Could Join Them on the Hot Seat for 2026:

• Timmy Chang (Hawaii) - Cultural goodwill has limits if wins don't follow

• Ken Niumatalolo (SJSU) - Lost his best players and faces a tougher schedule

• Jay Norvell (CSU) - Championship expectations with Pac-12 transition looming

Maximum Job Security:

• Troy Calhoun has institutional security that transcends single seasons

• The four new coaches (Entz, Eck, Mendenhall, Mullen) have maximum runway and realistic expectations

• Spencer Danielson enjoys contract security, but 2025 will reveal if his early success was coaching excellence or inherited talent

Wild Cards:

• Timmy Chang benefits from unique cultural circumstances at Hawaii that could extend his timeline

• Ken Niumatalolo faces the classic "Year 2 Reality Check" after early success masked systemic issues

Conference Stability Outlook: The Mountain West should see minimal coaching changes after 2025, given that three of the most vulnerable coaches (Choate, Sawvel, Lewis) are only entering their second seasons. However, the groundwork for potential 2026 moves is being laid now. These second-year coaches need to show substantial improvement to avoid entering year three on the hot seat. The transition to an expanded Pac-12 for several programs adds additional pressure to prove they belong at that competitive level. Still, actual coaching changes are more likely to come after the 2026 season if current trajectories don't improve.

THAT’S A WRAP

The Mountain West Conference is a coaching graveyard disguised as opportunity.

After examining every program, every contract, and every hot seat rating, one brutal truth emerges: this conference devours coaches who can't adapt to modern college football realities. The margin for error has vanished completely, leaving coaches scrambling to prove their worth before athletic directors lose patience. Programs now demand immediate results while claiming they understand that sustainable success requires time and development.

This contradiction creates the perfect storm for coaching casualties.

The most dangerous coaches are those entering year two with big salaries and losing records.

Jeff Choate at Nevada faces make-or-break pressure with a $1.6 million salary and a 3-10 record that screams institutional mismatch. Jay Sawvel at Wyoming inherited a stable program but delivered chaos instead, turning defensive expertise into comprehensive failure. Sean Lewis at San Diego State must prove his innovative offensive concepts can translate into actual wins when it matters most.

These coaches have run out of excuses and goodwill.

The survivors understand their environments and deliver within realistic frameworks.

Troy Calhoun at Air Force has mastered 18 years of sustained excellence by operating within clearly defined parameters where 6-8 wins represent achievement, not mediocrity. Spencer Danielson inherited Boise State's championship culture and immediately validated his promotion with elite performance that exceeded all expectations. These coaches built their success on institutional alignment rather than fighting against organizational realities.

They understand that longevity comes from meeting expectations, not exceeding them dramatically.

Friday's Sun Belt Conference preview will explore entirely different survival challenges.

Where the Mountain West punishes coaches for failing to meet inflated expectations, the Sun Belt rewards those who navigate conference realignment chaos while building sustainable programs. The stakes remain equally high, but the metrics for success operate under entirely different parameters than what we've seen in the Mountain West.

The question isn't whether coaches will succeed or fail—it's how quickly programs will pull the trigger when patience finally runs out.