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- Notre Dame's CFP Deal Just Killed College Football's Greatest Rivalry
Notre Dame's CFP Deal Just Killed College Football's Greatest Rivalry
A weak schedule. A guaranteed playoff spot. And a clause that lets them jump USC even after losing head-to-head. The Trojans had no choice but to walk. Plus: Poggi calls out Michigan. Dillingham drama was fiction. UCLA donors come off the sidelines.


IN THIS ISSUE
Good morning. Mark here.
The USC-Notre Dame rivalry is officially on hold until at least 2030. But the real story broke this morning: USC walked because of Notre Dame's CFP agreement.
Here's the scenario that killed it: USC beats Notre Dame late in the season. Both finish 10-2. The committee ranks USC ahead based on head-to-head. But Notre Dame's guaranteed playoff spot, if they're in the top 12, means the Irish jump the Trojans anyway.
USC didn't know about that agreement until recently. Once they found out, the calculus changed entirely. Can't say I blame them.
Elsewhere, Biff Poggi went scorched earth on Michigan this morning. "Five years of a malfunctioning organization," he said. That covers the entire Harbaugh era, national title included. Kenny Dillingham's drama at Arizona State? Turns out it was all fiction. And UCLA's NIL collective is back with what they're calling a "war chest" for Bob Chesney. The big question: Can donor money overcome Martin Jarmond?
Also worth reading: The Washington Post ranked the happiest fan bases in college football. They left out Indiana. And James Madison. The comments section is having a field day.
And in today's Deep Dive, a reader demanded an apology for my Ricky Rahne prediction. He accidentally proved my point instead.
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BEST LINKS
One of college football's greatest rivalries just hit pause.
And honestly? Notre Dame blinked.
USC and Notre Dame couldn't make the numbers work. Scheduling complications. Playoff implications. Two athletic directors, Jen Cohen and Pete Bevacqua, spent weeks trying to salvage a Week Zero matchup for 2026.
It fizzled.
The series is now dead until at least 2030. Notre Dame will fill that slot with... BYU. Provo in 2026. South Bend in 2027.
The Irish traded the Coliseum for the Rockies.
Look, both programs share blame here. But when you're college football's last true independent, you don't get to complain about "scheduling complications." You control your own schedule. That's the whole point.
And now we know why USC walked.
Yahoo's Dan Wolken laid out the scenario that killed this thing:
9-2 USC beats 10-1 Notre Dame in late November. Both finish 10-2. The committee ranks USC 11th, Notre Dame 12th based on head-to-head. But because of Notre Dame's CFP agreement, which guarantees the Irish a playoff spot if they're ranked in the top 12, Notre Dame jumps USC anyway.
So why would USC ever play that game?
The LA Times' Ryan Kartje confirms this scenario was "definitely given consideration." The two sides were close to a deal earlier this season. USC was ready to compromise on a November date.
Then USC learned about Notre Dame's CFP agreement. Which they hadn't known about.
Everything changed.
USC reversed course. Insisted on Week Zero. A source called Notre Dame's deal "a material advantage" that could directly hurt the Trojans. The CFP selection show only made it worse; had Notre Dame's agreement been in place this year, the Irish would've leapfrogged Miami despite losing to them head-to-head.
That was enough for USC to walk.
Biff Poggi just said what everyone's been thinking.
Michigan's interim head coach met with local media this morning. No corporate speak. No carefully rehearsed talking points. Just a man who's seen enough.
"It's been five years of a malfunctioning organization. Let's call it what it is."
Five years. That covers the entire Harbaugh era - national championship included.
Poggi confirmed he's interviewed multiple times for the full-time job. When asked why he'd be a strong choice, he didn't flinch:
"Because I know what the hell I'm doing. I want to fix this program."
AD Warde Manuel reportedly told the team he hopes to have a new coach in place somewhere between Christmas and the bowl game. Which means Poggi is either auditioning in real time, or saying goodbye on his own terms.
Either way? He's not going quietly.
More here: [LINK]
Kenny Dillingham was never going anywhere.
All that drama you read about? The standoff rumors? The will-he-or-won't-he speculation?
None of it was real.
Arizona State AD Graham Rossini says talks began in October, before the regular season even ended. By the time the Sun Devils played Arizona, the framework was already in place. Dillingham's amended contract was just a formality.
Most important to Dillingham: keeping his staff together. The assistant coach pool jumped to $11 million to make that happen.
Rossini didn't hold back on the media narrative:
"I was surprised that there was a lot of what I thought was misinformation and false narrative out there that there was a standoff. Keeping Kenny was an absolute priority for me. It was a priority for Dr. Crow. It was never a conversation that we had about letting him move on."
And here's the part that should quiet the rumor mill for good: Dillingham was never offered another job.
No bidding war. No leverage play. Just a coach who wanted to stay and an AD who made it happen.
More. [LINK]
UCLA's NIL collective just came off the sidelines.
Champion of Westwood founder Ken Graiwer joined the Bruin Report Online podcast with a message: the money is back.
Bob Chesney's hiring changed everything. Graiwer described "full alignment" with the administration—something that clearly didn't exist before. Dormant donors are re-engaging. And the program now has what he called a "war chest of toys that has not been seen before."
He wouldn't confirm specific payroll numbers. But he made this clear: the assets available to Chesney's staff are "exponentially greater than ever before" and "should very well be in that ballpark" of the top tier.
Translation: UCLA is finally ready to play the NIL game for real.
On basketball, Graiwer acknowledged a gap with some competitors. But even there, the trajectory is up: "What we're forecasting is ridiculously good compared to where it was."
The big question: Can donor money overcome Martin Jarmond?
We've documented the case against UCLA's AD. He failed to fire Chip Kelly when it was obvious. Panicked through a 96-hour coaching search. Hired DeShaun Foster, then admitted he put him in a job he wasn't qualified for. That cost UCLA $6-8 million and set the program back another year.
Maybe the boosters decided they're done waiting for Jarmond to figure it out. Maybe they're betting Chesney is good enough to win despite the guy signing his checks.
More. [LINK]
The Washington Post tried to quantify happiness.
Not life happiness. Football happiness. The kind that comes from wins, rankings, Heismans, and championships - weighted by recency and stacked across three time periods.
Fourteen variables. Twenty-five years of data. Every FBS program ranked.
Well. Almost every program.
They left out Indiana, the team that is literally ranked #1 and earned the top seed in this year's playoff. And James Madison, who's been one of the best stories in college football.
The comments section noticed (Don’t skip them).
The methodology is rigorous. Wins against ranked teams. Weeks in the top 10. Conference titles. Playoff appearances. National championships weighted 3x. Heisman voting weighted at one-quarter. Everything adjusted so recent seasons matter more than distant ones.
The result? A definitive ranking of which fan bases have had it best, and which ones have been living in pain. Just don't ask Hoosier or Dukes fans where they landed.
Where does your team rank? [LINK]

DEEP DIVE
I Predicted Ricky Rahne Would Be Fired By November. He Won 10 Games Instead. Here's Why The Reader Demanding An Apology Just Proved My Point.
In August, I predicted Old Dominion's Ricky Rahne would be fired by November.
Instead, ODU went 10-3, beat Virginia Tech on the road, and won the Cure Bowl. I was wrong. Completely.
Then reader Sean Mullen sent me this:
"Congratulations Mark on being completely wrong about Ricky Rahne at Old Dominion. Not only did he take the team to a 10 win season and an impressive bowl win against a team that was favored to beat them, ODU extended his contract four more years. You slung that stupid crap without doing any research as to the success he was having. Are you gonna do the right thing now and follow up and state publicly you were wrong?"
Here's the thing.
The Number Sean Wants To Ignore
Rahne's career record at Old Dominion: 30-33.
That's a .476 winning percentage across five seasons. Still below .500. Before 2025, he was 20-30 with an 0-2 bowl record.
One 10-win season doesn't erase that.
The Real Problem With CFB Fandom
Sean didn't argue "Rahne turned a corner."
He argued I was an idiot for ever questioning him. That's recency bias in action:
Coach goes 10-3 after four losing seasons? He was always good.
Coach goes 6-6 after three 10-win seasons? Fire him immediately.
One season is a data point. Five seasons is a sample.
The Bottom Line
Rahne earned his extension. The 2025 season was legitimately impressive.
But demanding an apology for analyzing a 20-30 coach? That's not vindication. That's recency bias dressed up as a gotcha. [LINK TO DEEP DIVE HERE]

THAT’S A WRAP
That's it for Tuesday.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone reading this. Take a few days to enjoy family, food, and football - there's plenty of all three this week.
We'll be back Friday with more.
— Mark


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