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- One Coach Escaped Fan Pressure With Elite Defense. Two Others Are About to Face Their Biggest Test Yet
One Coach Escaped Fan Pressure With Elite Defense. Two Others Are About to Face Their Biggest Test Yet
Oklahoma's aerial assault meets Auburn's ground game, Cal's defense faces a broken San Diego State offense, and Billy Napier's survival depends on stopping Miami's Heisman candidate


IN THIS ISSUE
Oklahoma vs Auburn - A showdown between two improved teams at Oklahoma.
Cal vs San Diego State - Don’t sleep on Cal, they’re improved and have a clear path to win an ACC championship. Does that mean the conference will be renamed “All Coast Conference?”
Florida @ Miami (FL) - Can a desperate coach with his back against the wall find a way to pull off the impossible?
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BEST LINKS
The NCAA Administrative Committee approved the elimination of the spring football transfer portal window.
The NCAA just eliminated college football's spring transfer portal window, leaving players with a single fall opportunity to switch schools. But here's the twist—nobody knows exactly when that window will open or how long it'll stay open. Sometimes, even the rule-makers need time to figure out the rules. More here. And here.
Nico Iamaleava is expected to finish the season at UCLA
While UCLA's coaching carousel spins and transfer portals beckon, quarterback Nico Iamaleava showed up to practice this week—sending a clear signal about his commitment to the Bruins despite the chaos. Sometimes the most important news is who stays, not who goes. More here.
The podcast that's making college football betting actually profitable
Most sports betting podcasts are just two guys yelling hot takes into a microphone.
"Targeting Winners" is different.
These guys (the CFB Dudes) have been quietly building one of the most analytical college football betting shows in the space. 118 episodes deep. 4.3/5 Apple rating. And they're not trying to sell you miracle systems or "lock of the century" nonsense.
Instead? They break down matchups like scouts, conference trends like analysts. And betting lines like the sharp money do.
Their recent SEC preview was masterful: diving into Alabama's rebuild, Georgia's ceiling, and why everyone's sleeping on Vanderbilt (yes, really). The Big 12 chaos theory episode? Even better.
What I love most: They admit when they're wrong. Track their picks. And actually teach you how to think about betting instead of just telling you what to bet.
Check them out on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or YouTube. Join their Facebook group while you're at it.
Because if you're going to bet on college football, you might as well learn from people who actually know what they're talking about.

FEATURED GAME PREVIEWS
Oklahoma vs Auburn: Why Saturday's Battle of Opposite Philosophies Will Validate One Program and Expose Another
Game: Auburn @ Oklahoma
Game Time: Saturday @3:30 pm EDT
Game Channel: ABC
Saturday's Oklahoma vs Auburn game isn't just another early-season SEC matchup.
It's a clash between two programs that have undergone complete philosophical transformations—and the winner gets validation that their entire rebuild is working at the highest level.
The Philosophical War
Oklahoma became an elite passing team overnight: 316.3 yards per game (up 79.9% from 2024) with a suffocating pass defense that allows just 84.7 yards per game.
Auburn went the opposite direction: A ground-and-pound powerhouse averaging 242 rushing yards per game while protecting the ball like gold (only 0.3 turnovers per game).
The Matchup That Decides Everything
Here's what makes this fascinating: Both teams should get what they want.
Oklahoma's passing offense (316.3 ypg) vs Auburn's vulnerable pass defense (220 ypg allowed) = Massive mismatch for Oklahoma
Auburn's rushing attack (242 ypg) vs Oklahoma's decent run defense (96.3 ypg allowed) = Advantage Auburn
This creates two completely different game scripts:
Scenario 1: Oklahoma gets ahead early through the air, forcing Auburn to abandon its ground game.
Scenario 2: Auburn establishes the run, controls the clock, and suffocates Oklahoma's explosive offense by keeping them off the field.
My Prediction
Auburn covers the spread, but Oklahoma wins outright 31-24.
Here's why: Auburn's pass defense has actually gotten worse since 2024 (up from 213 to 220 yards allowed). Oklahoma's passing attack is too explosive to be contained for four quarters.
Auburn will control long stretches with its dominant rushing attack, but Oklahoma's ability to score quickly through the air will be the difference in the fourth quarter.
The winner doesn't just get a ranked victory—they get proof their transformation works in the SEC.
One Coach Escaped Fan Pressure With Elite Defense. The Other Is Drowning in 'Word Salad' Criticism
Game: Cal @ San Diego State
Game Time: Saturday @10:30 pm EDT
Game Channel: CBS Sports Network
One coach escaped the pressure. The other is drowning in it.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Justin Wilcox (Cal): Started at #15 on the Coaches Hot Seat Rankings. Now 3-0 with one of the most improved defenses in college football.
2024 Defense: 421 yards allowed per game
2025 Defense: 280 yards allowed per game
That's 141 fewer yards per game—unprecedented improvement
Sean Lewis (SDSU): Moved from #41 to #17 on our Hot Seat Rankings. Fans are calling him out for speaking in "word salads" and having a "camp counselor demeanor."
2024 Offense: 19.5 points per game (terrible)
2025 Offense: 15.5 points per game (historically bad)
Season ticket sales down 33%. Fan pressure mounting: "If there isn't big improvement, I hope he's gone after this season."
The Matchup That Matters
Cal (24.3 ppg, elite defense) travels to face SDSU (15.5 ppg, broken offense).
This isn't just about Saturday's game. It's about trajectory.
Wilcox made a brilliant strategic move: he hired Bryan Harsin to run the offense, freeing himself to focus on his core competency—defense. The result? The same unit that gave up 421 yards per game in 2024 is now allowing just 280 yards—the kind of improvement that typically takes multiple recruiting cycles.
Lewis? His gimmicky system failed spectacularly in Year 1, then somehow got worse. Key players transferred out. Fans mock his "word salad" press conferences and "camp counselor" approach. The pressure is suffocating.
The Prediction
Cal wins 31-13.
Here's the fascinating matchup: Cal's improved offense (387.7 total yards per game) versus SDSU's dramatically improved defense (245.5 yards allowed, down from 421+ last season).
SDSU's defense has gotten significantly better—but their historically bad offense (15.5 ppg) can't capitalize. Cal's balanced attack will find enough holes, while SDSU's offense struggles to move the ball against Cal's elite defense.
More importantly, Cal extends their perfect start and continues building toward ACC championship contention.
SDSU falls to 1-2, and Lewis faces even more intense fan pressure heading into conference play.
The Takeaway
Saturday isn't just a game—it's a masterclass in how quickly coaching fortunes can change.
Sometimes, the coach everyone wants fired just needed the proper support and circumstances to succeed.
Sometimes the coach with the flashy system was never the right fit.
Justin Wilcox silenced his critics. Sean Lewis can't escape the noise.
The Miami Hurricane Is Coming, And The Forecast Is Not Good For Billy Napier
Game: Florida @ Miami
Game Time: Saturday @7:30 pm EDT
Game Channel: ABC
Here's what nobody wants to admit:
Billy Napier is coaching for his job on Saturday night. While everyone else is talking about rivalry games and tradition, the real story is simple: a coach's career is about to be decided under the bright lights in Miami. This isn't just football anymore—it's survival.
And the odds aren't in his favor.
Why Florida's Season Is Already Over (Even Though It's Only Week 4)
The numbers tell a story that Gator fans don't want to hear:
· 27 points per game. That's what Florida is averaging—and half of those came in a blowout win against an FCS school that shouldn't even count.
· 1 rushing touchdown. One. In three games. That's not a football team; that's a JV squad.
· 2 turnovers per game. You can't win games when you're handing the ball to the other team twice every Saturday.
The math is brutal, but it's honest.
Miami Isn't Just Better—They're Playing a Different Sport
Here's the reality check:
The Hurricanes are 3-0, ranked in the top 5, and Carson Beck is putting together a Heisman-caliber season. While Florida is struggling to move the ball, Miami is averaging 486 yards per game—that's 200 more than the Gators can muster.
Beck's numbers?
· 78.1% completion percentage.
· 9 touchdowns.
· 2 interceptions.
This isn't even close to a fair fight.
The One Thing Florida Does Better Than Everyone Else
But here's the plot twist nobody saw coming:
Vernell Brown III is averaging 18.3 yards per punt return.
Miami? 7.6 yards.
That's not a slight edge—that's a massive advantage that completely changes field position every single drive. In a game where Florida will need every inch they can get, Brown might be the difference between a blowout and a miracle.
This could be the X-factor that changes everything.
The Final Verdict
This game will answer one question:
Can a desperate coach with his back against the wall find a way to pull off the impossible? Or will superior talent and execution do what they always do—win?
Billy Napier's future in Gainesville will be decided in 60 minutes on Saturday.
The clock is ticking.

THAT’S A WRAP
Here's what nobody wants to admit: Saturday's three games aren't just about wins and losses.
They're about validation.
Brent Venables (#13) has already moved down from his #4 preseason ranking by transforming Oklahoma into an elite passing attack. But can his philosophical overhaul survive against Auburn's ball-control offense that's designed to suffocate explosive teams?
Hugh Freeze (#27) has dropped from #6 by proving that Auburn's ground-and-pound transformation works. Saturday's test: can his rushing attack control the clock against Oklahoma's improved defense, or will the Sooners' aerial circus expose his limitations?
Justin Wilcox (#41) has already proven his critics wrong with one of the most improved defenses in college football. But can Cal's 3-0 start actually translate into ACC championship contention when they finally start conference play?
Sean Lewis (#17) is drowning in fan criticism about his 'word salad' press conferences while his offense gets historically worse. Saturday against Cal's elite defense could be the final nail in the coffin.
And Billy Napier (#1)? He's coaching for his career in Miami against a top-5 team with a Heisman candidate quarterback.
When our weekly Coaches Hot Seat rankings drop Tuesday, these three games will tell us everything we need to know about which transformations are real—and which coaches were buying time.
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