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- One Program Bet on Ceiling. The Other Bet on Floor. Only One of Them Got It Right.
One Program Bet on Ceiling. The Other Bet on Floor. Only One of Them Got It Right.
Eric Morris has never beaten a ranked team. Neal Brown once trailed only Saban and Swinney. Guess which one's getting the hype.
Mark Haines
January 20, 2026
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IN THIS ISSUE
Good morning. Mark here.
The college football power brokers met in Miami for three hours on Sunday. They left with nothing. The SEC wants 16 teams. The Big Ten wants 24. ESPN's deadline is Friday. And one college leader called the whole thing "an embarrassment for the sport." He's not wrong.
Meanwhile, we're diving deep on a coaching swap that tells you everything about what programs are actually looking for right now. Eric Morris leaves North Texas for Oklahoma State - and takes his 0-4 record against ranked teams into a conference where he'll face 4-6 of them every year. Neal Brown arrives in Denton with a decade of head coaching experience and a three-year stretch at Troy where only Saban and Swinney had better winning percentages.
One program bet on ceiling. The other bet on floor.
We break down both.
Also in this issue: On3's "adapt or die" manifesto for college athletics, and the latest on the playoff expansion stalemate.
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BEST LINKS
Indiana football just won a national championship.
Read that again.
The program with the most losses in college football history - decades of futility, fleeting hope, and annual disappointment - just finished 16-0 and cut down the nets. On Miami's home field. In a game they had to grind out against a Hurricanes team that wouldn't quit.
Curt Cignetti pulled off the unthinkable.
The details:
27-21 over Miami in the title game
Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza punched in the deciding TD on a 12-yard scramble with 9:18 left
First national title in program history
First undefeated season since... ever
Indiana now owns the most recent undefeated seasons in both football and men's basketball.
A year ago, that sentence would've gotten you laughed out of the room.
Today, it's history.
And they did it before Oregon.
"Adapt or die."
That's not hyperbole. That's the mandate.
On3's Andy Staples and Shannon Terry are sounding the alarm: college athletics faces "real, systemic issues" that require fundamental restructuring across conferences, rights holders, and the NCAA—all within the next three to five years.
The product is thriving. Record ratings. Social growth through the roof. But behind the scenes? Chaos.
Their short-term fixes:
Fix the calendar. Kill early signing day. Go back to one date in February.
Move the transfer portal window from January to March.
Build a real partnership with the NFL. Sankey and Petitti need to call Roger Goodell and ask: "How can we work together?"
Keep Congress out—for now. Solve your own problems first.
Don't dilute the regular season. A 24-team playoff could destroy what makes college football special.
And the big one?
Stop whining about athletes getting paid. Stop wishing for the "old days."
They're not coming back.
More. [LINK]
The SEC-Big Ten alliance might be falling apart.
Three hours in Miami. No deal.
The SEC wants a 16-team playoff. The Big Ten wants 24. A compromise proposal—start at 16, expand to 24 in two years—went nowhere because Greg Sankey and SEC presidents refuse to make long-term commitments in a landscape this chaotic.
ESPN's deadline is Friday. CFP Board Chair Mark Keenum isn't sweating it: "It took five years for us to go from four to 12."
Translation: Don't hold your breath.
American Commissioner Tim Pernetti summed up the stalemate perfectly: "That's up to two people in the room."
Another college leader was less diplomatic: "It is an embarrassment for the sport."
He's not wrong.
More here: [LINK]
DEEP DIVE
Eric Morris Has Never Beaten a Ranked Team
He's one of the best offensive minds in college football.
503 Yards Per Game. No. 1 in the Nation.
His 2025 North Texas team led the country in total offense. They scored 30-plus in every game and 50-plus in six of them. He developed Cam Ward before the Heisman run. His fingerprints are on Mahomes and Mayfield from his Texas Tech days. The man knows how to build a quarterback and design an offense that puts up points.
But his splits tell a different story.
0-4 Against Ranked Teams. 5-6 on the Road.
Morris was .500 in late-season games. And now Oklahoma State just handed him the keys to a program that went 0-17 in Big 12 play over the last two years—in a conference where he'll face 4-6 ranked teams every season and have to win in Lubbock, Austin, and Morgantown just to stay competitive.
The offense will be fine. It always is with Morris.
Everything else is an open question.
Eric Morris Was Exciting. Neal Brown Will Be Reliable. Here's Why That's What North Texas Actually Needs.
North Texas fans wanted fireworks. They got a floor-raiser instead.
Neal Brown isn't a splash hire.
He's a stabilizer. And before you groan, consider what that actually means for a program that just watched its coach leave for a bigger job.
That's not a consolation prize.
At Troy, the numbers were elite:
35-16 record
Perfect 3-0 in bowl games
.790 win rate from 2016-18 (trailed only Saban and Swinney)
Yes, West Virginia was harder.
His 37-36 record there won't excite anyone.
But he never lost the locker room. His teams played hard until the final whistle, even in bad years. That matters more than most fans realize.
It tells you who he is when things go wrong.
The identity shift will be noticeable.
Less tempo. More balance. Fewer explosive plays.
Think pickup truck, not Ferrari—less flash, more reliability. But reliability is exactly what UNT needs right now.
Brown's teams finish strong.
Here's what the data says:
.733 late-season record at Troy
Bowl games most years
No crater seasons
You're not getting a savior.
You're getting a builder.
He's already proven he can win at this level. For a program trying to sustain success rather than chase boom-or-bust cycles, that profile fits.
Sometimes that's the smarter hire.
THAT’S A WRAP
That's all for today.
Friday, we're back with more profiles of the coaching carousel's newest hires—breaking down who got it right, who's taking a risk, and which programs just set themselves back five years.
If you found value in today's breakdown, forward this to a friend who lives and breathes college football. It's the best way to help us grow.
See you Friday.
— Mark
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