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Trump Just Threw College Athletics Into Complete Chaos

President Trump signed the "Saving College Sports" executive order, and it may have just disrupted the entire system that schools were finally starting to figure out. This comes right after the House settlement was supposed to bring stability to college athletics. Instead, we now have federal agencies potentially overriding legal agreements that took years to negotiate.

Here's the critical question nobody's asking: Are Name, Image, and Likeness payments the same as "pay-for-play"?

According to Trump's order, they're not. The order prohibits "third-party, pay-for-play payments" but allows "legitimate, fair-market-value compensation that a third party provides to an athlete, such as for a brand endorsement."

But who decides what's "legitimate" NIL versus disguised pay-for-play?

The House settlement has already established an independent review system for NIL deals exceeding $600 to make this determination. Now, Trump's federal agencies will also be making these calls, potentially with different standards.

The executive order creates more questions than it answers:

• Will schools choose between following court settlements or federal directives?

• What happens to NIL deals that don't meet new federal requirements?

• How will this affect recruiting when nobody knows what rules apply?

College athletics just spent years in court creating a sustainable system. That system wasn't perfect, but it provided a certain level of predictability.

Now everyone's back to waiting for lawyers to figure out what the rules are.

DEEP DIVE

The Beautiful Lies Numbers Tell About Coaching Survival

We built an early warning system that spits out numbers, and we decided to call it a "Hot Seat Rating."

Think of it as college football's smoke detector—not telling you there's definitely a fire, but screaming "look at me" when something doesn't smell right. A coach scoring "1" is meeting expectations. Above "1" means exceeding expectations. Below "1" suggests trouble brewing.

But here's why you should care: the most interesting coaching stories hide behind numbers that don't make sense.

The algorithm just told us five Mountain West coaches have wildly different job security, and every single rating might be spectacularly wrong.

Meet Our Hot Seat Ratings

Ken Niumatalolo (San Jose State): 1.221 (Exceeding expectations) Troy Calhoun (Air Force): 1.124 (Exceeding expectations)
Spencer Danielson (Boise State): 1.073 (Riding high after championship) Jay Sawvel (Wyoming): .531 (Trouble brewing) Jeff Choate (Nevada): .451 (Deep trouble)

The coaches with high ratings should be safe. The coaches with low ratings should be updating their résumés.

But here’s what makes these numbers beautifully dangerous: they measure everything except what matters.

Why The Algorithm Points Us To The Real Stories

The Hot Seat Rating doesn't predict the future—it identifies which coaches deserve deeper investigation.

Niumatalolo's 1.221 rating flashes "exceeding expectations," so we looked closer and found a program built on statistical smoke. Danielson's 1.073 rating screams "success story," so we dug deeper and discovered his real coaching test hasn't even started yet.

Meanwhile, Choate's .451 rating shouts "failure," so we investigated and found a coach methodically rebuilding Nevada's entire foundation.

The rating isn't the story—it's the flashlight that helps us find the story.

The five deep dives below reveal what 2025 will actually teach us about each coach—and why our sophisticated algorithm might be the worst possible predictor of who survives.

The Ken Niumatalolo Red Flags Everyone at San Jose State Is Ignoring

School: San Jose State

Ken Niumatalolo's first season at San Jose State fooled everyone.

7-6 record. Bowl game. Signature wins over Stanford and Oregon State. College football's first unanimous All-American receiver in program history.

Sports media ate it up. Fans bought the hype. His hot seat rating of 1.221 suggests he's exceeding expectations.

But this "success story" is built on statistical smoke and mirrors.

The Numbers Expose Everything

College football fans suffer from chronic outcome bias—they see seven wins and assume progress is linear.

Our analysis shows an entirely different story:

• San Jose State averaged 321.8 passing yards per game

• They managed just 88.1 rushing yards per game

• That's a nearly 4:1 pass-to-run ratio bordering on offensive malpractice

• Turnover margin was exactly neutral: 2.2 per game both ways

The most damning evidence: Six games were decided by eight points or fewer, and San Jose State went 2-4 in those contests.

Championship-caliber coaching shows up in close games.

The Navy Pattern Nobody Talks About

Niumatalolo's Navy tenure reveals his coaching ceiling.

Yes, he won 109 games in 15 seasons. But here's what the highlight reels don't show:

• Navy went 11-23 over his final three seasons (2020-2022)

• In 2022, Navy averaged 21.9 points per game (106th nationally)

• They managed just 326.8 total yards per game (111th)

The pattern is obvious: rigid coaching disguised as philosophical consistency.

When the scheme became predictable, the program collapsed.

The 2025 Reality Check

Nick Nash and Justin Lockhart are gone—they combined for 2,365 receiving yards and 21 touchdowns.

The returning receiving corps had fewer than 500 yards combined in 2024.

But listen to Niumatalolo's recent comments: "We actually feel like we're deeper as a group, receiver-wise, from top to bottom."

This statement reveals either deliberate misrepresentation or genuine delusion.

Meanwhile, the 2025 schedule includes Texas, Stanford, and multiple Mountain West contenders.

The Coaching Tree Red Flag

Want to know if a coach can develop talent?

Look at their coaching tree. Niumatalolo's primary pupils never advanced to prominent roles.

Even more concerning: He spent 2023 at UCLA as "director of leadership"—essentially a sabbatical to study NIL and transfer portal management.

A 15-year head coach required remedial education in contemporary recruiting methods.

And he chose to learn from UCLA—a program hardly known for elite NIL or transfer portal management.

What 2025 Will Reveal

Forget the overall record when evaluating Niumatalolo's coaching.

Watch these indicators:

• Close game execution

• Running game development

• Production distribution without elite talent

• Late-game decision making

The brutal reality is simple: coaching greatness reveals itself through adversity, not comfort.

And adversity is coming to San Jose State.

Troy Calhoun Isn't Just Surviving at Air Force—He's Dominating

School: Air Force

Most Mountain West coaches are fighting for their jobs.

Troy Calhoun has the highest "hot seat" rating in the conference at 1.124 for coaches who have been in the job for more than 3 years, meaning he's exceeding expectations by a massive margin. While other coaches scramble to save their careers, Calhoun is building something rare in college football: sustained excellence at a service academy.

Here's what separates Calhoun from every other coach in the Mountain West.

The 2024 Turnaround That Proved His Genius

Air Force started 1-7 and looked dead in the water.

Most coaches would have lost the locker room. Instead, Calhoun engineered one of college football's most remarkable turnarounds, closing with four straight wins to finish 5-7.

The numbers tell the story:

• In wins: 6.2 point margin, only 0.4 turnovers per game

• In losses: -14.6 point margin, 1.9 turnovers per game

The difference wasn't talent—it was coaching.

Why Critics Miss The Point

Service academy football isn't like anywhere else.

These aren't transfer portal mercenaries or five-star recruits. These are future military officers navigating the nation's hardest academic curriculum while mastering college football's most complex offense.

Calhoun has led Air Force to 13 bowl games in 18 seasons with these constraints.

That's not just good coaching—that's borderline miraculous.

The 2025 Challenge

Calhoun enters his 18th season with familiar questions:

• Can Josh Johnson develop into a consistent quarterback?

• Will the rushing attack (224 yards per game in 2024) remain dominant?

• Can the defense replace key departures in the secondary?

The schedule is unforgiving: Boise State, Wyoming, and service academy rivals Navy and Army all loom as season-defining tests.

Why Calhoun's Success Matters

His contract runs through 2029 because Air Force understands what they have: institutional excellence.

99% of Calhoun's players graduate and serve as military officers. The program consistently ranks in the top 90th percentile for academic progress. This isn't just about football—it's about developing leaders.

The bottom line: While other Mountain West coaches fight to keep their jobs, Calhoun is building something that lasts decades.

Air Force will likely finish 6-8 wins in 2025, with bowl eligibility representing success given roster turnover. But the real measure isn't wins and losses—it's the foundation being built for sustained excellence.

Troy Calhoun isn't just the best coach in the Mountain West.

He's proving that institutional commitment and tactical excellence can coexist in an era of chaos.

Spencer Danielson's 2025 Test: Why This Season Will Define His Boise State Coaching Legacy

School: Boise State

Spencer Danielson walks into 2025 with a hot seat rating of 1.073 and zero pressure to save his job.

But here's what should terrify him: this season represents the most brutal coaching evaluation of his career. He must replace generational talent, navigate the program's toughest schedule in years, and prove his 15-3 record wasn't just a result of fortunate timing with elite players.

The Numbers That Reveal Everything

Danielson's 83.3% winning percentage trails only Chris Petersen's legendary 88.5% mark in program history.

But context matters more than percentages:

• Petersen inherited established systems and built gradually

• Danielson took over a 5-5 team mid-season

• He immediately produced three consecutive victories

• He became the first interim head coach in FBS history to win a conference championship

Most coaches fail catastrophically under this pressure.

The Offensive Genius Nobody Expected

Defensive coordinators typically produce conservative offensive philosophies.

Danielson shattered this stereotype completely. Boise State averaged 37.3 points per game in 2024, ranking fifth nationally. The coaching staff built schemes around Ashton Jeanty's 2,601-yard, 29-touchdown season while maintaining balanced attack principles.

This required sophisticated play calling that many defensive-minded coaches never master.

The 2025 Reality Check

Losing Jeanty forces complete offensive reconstruction around a committee approach:

• Jambres Dubar: 99 rushing yards in 2024

• Dylan Riley: 135 rushing yards

• Sire Gaines: 156 rushing yards in limited action

Combined, these three produced fewer yards than Jeanty averaged every four games.

Smart coaches understand that personnel limitations necessitate tactical innovation, not rigid adherence to a system.

The Defensive Performance That Exposes Weaknesses

The 2024 defense generated 55 sacks (leading the nation) and 111 tackles for loss (third nationally).

But pass defense allowed 241.4 yards per game, deteriorating to 276.2 yards on the road. Four senior defensive backs graduated, exposing potential coaching failures in depth development.

Danielson added six transfers, including Demetrius Freeney from Arizona and Jeremiah Earby from California.

The Penalty Pattern That Reveals Everything

Boise State averaged 46.2 penalty yards per game but spiked to 70 yards in their two losses.

This 51% increase during defeats suggests coaching struggles with maintaining discipline under pressure. Elite opponents exposed composure deficiencies that better preparation should have prevented.

The Transfer Portal Masterclass

Danielson retained 13 players who were "illegally recruited" by other programs during the season.

"I know for sure of 13 that are getting illegally recruited to get in the portal and get paid all this and that," he revealed. Yet zero players transferred during the season.

Most coaches lose multiple players to this pressure.

The Schedule That Changes Everything

The road trip to Notre Dame on October 4 presents the highest-profile coaching challenge in program history.

Home versus road performance reveals struggles with adaptation. Boise State went 7-0 at home, averaging 491.4 yards and 41.7 points per game. Road statistics were significantly lower.

This 50-yard difference indicates struggles with environmental adaptation in coaching.

The Bottom Line

Success in 2025 would establish Danielson among elite Group of Five coaches and validate his systematic approach.

Failure would raise questions about whether his early success was due to circumstances rather than coaching excellence. The hot seat rating of 1.073 provides current security, but coaching performance is evaluated continuously.

The 2025 season represents the definitive measurement of Danielson's long-term coaching capabilities.

Why Jeff Choate's Second Season at Nevada Will Make or Break His Career

School: Nevada

Jeff Choate's honeymoon period is over.

After a brutal 3-10 debut season with an embarrassing 0-7 conference record, Nevada's head coach enters 2025 with a hot seat rating of .451. In college football, that number screams one thing: you're running out of time.

Here's why 2025 is make-or-break:

The Math Is Unforgiving

Nevada has endured three consecutive 10-loss seasons (7-30 record from 2022-24)—the worst stretch in program history. While Choate inherited a mess, year two demands results, not excuses.

The Penalty Problem Nearly Killed Them

Nevada's 99 penalties tied for the fifth-most nationally in 2024. These weren't isolated mistakes—they were season-long collapses that cost winnable games against Georgia Southern, San Jose State, and Fresno State.

"I've never seen this before in my life," Choate admitted about his team's discipline issues.

He's Rebuilding Everything

Choate added 53 new players for 2025—essentially flipping half the roster. This wasn't tweaking; this was admitting his initial approach failed.

The focus shifted to character over talent:

• 30 high school recruits (vs. 5 the previous year)

• Academic performance as a predictor

• Regional fits over big names

The Quarterback Gamble

Brendon Lewis (2,290 passing yards, 775 rushing yards) is gone. His replacements—Chubba Purdy (239 yards) and AJ Bianco (173 yards)—combined for fewer yards than Lewis threw in three games.

What Success Looks Like

Choate needs 5-6 wins and 2-3 conference victories to survive. Another 0-7 conference season is likely to end his tenure.

The hot seat rating of .451 leaves zero margin for error.

Programs preach patience, but college football rewards results. Choate has made logical moves—roster overhaul, coaching adjustments, cultural emphasis—but logic doesn't win games.

Nevada needs wins, not explanations.

2025 will determine if Jeff Choate can deliver both.

Jay Sawvel's Wyoming Problem: When Safe Choices Create Hot Seats

School: Wyoming

Most people believe that promoting from within is the safest approach to hiring a coach.

Jay Sawvel's 0.531 hot seat rating after one season at Wyoming proves them wrong. The 33rd head coach in program history inherited something precious and dangerous: a decade of stability that created expectations he can't meet with the same formula.

Here's the uncomfortable truth about Wyoming's 2024 season.

The Numbers Don't Lie

Sawvel's first year exposed what happens when defensive coordinators become head coaches:

• 3-9 overall record (2-5 Mountain West)

• 19.3 points per game (among the conference's worst)

• 2-7 in close games (the ultimate coaching measurement)

• 410.6 yards allowed per game (regression in his specialty)

The most damning statistic? In wins, Wyoming averaged 39.7 points per game. In losses, just 23.4 points. When Sawvel's system worked, it worked brilliantly. The problem was consistency.

The Defensive Coordinator Trap

Here's what nobody talks about when coordinators get promoted.

They strive to maintain their specialty while learning to manage all the other aspects. Sawvel spent four years building Wyoming's defensive identity under Craig Bohl's leadership as coordinator. Now he's splitting focus between offense, defense, special teams, recruiting, and media obligations.

The result? Mediocrity in both phases.

Wyoming's defense allowed more yards than expected. The offense couldn't sustain drives. Special teams lost three key contributors to graduation. Instead of excelling at one thing, they became average at everything.

The 2025 Reality Check

Sawvel has the pieces to succeed, but time is running out.

Returning talent:

• Quarterback Kaden Anderson showed promise (58.3% completion, 6:3 TD:INT ratio)

• Running back Sam Scott led the team with 435 yards

• Receiver Jaylen Sargent brings senior leadership

The reality is that Utah visits Laramie on September 13. This single game will define Sawvel's trajectory. Win, and the program shows progress. Lose badly, and hot-seat conversations intensify.

Why This Matters Beyond Wyoming

Sawvel's situation reveals a harsh truth about college football hiring.

Athletic directors often opt for "safe" internal promotions to avoid costly searches and maintain continuity. But continuity without evolution creates stagnation. Wyoming needs the defensive foundation Sawvel built, while developing the offensive explosiveness he has never coordinated.

The math is simple: a minimum of 6-7 wins for year two survival. Anything less pushes that 0.531 rating into dangerous territory.

The lesson for every program: Safe hires aren't safe if they can't adapt beyond their expertise.

Sawvel has one season to prove Wyoming's bet on continuity over transformation will pay off.

THAT’S A WRAP

Next Tuesday: The complete Mountain West Hot Seat Rankings drop—every head coach reduced to a number that will either validate or destroy everything you thought you knew about their job security. We're not just ranking coaches; we're exposing the beautiful lies that athletic directors tell themselves about progress.

Next Friday: We close the book on the Mountain West and crack open the Sun Belt Conference, where the coaching carousel spins faster and the stakes somehow matter even more. Because in college football, there's always another conference where the numbers tell stories that nobody wants to hear but everyone needs to know.

The algorithm doesn't care about your feelings. It just keeps finding the truth hiding behind the scoreboard.

This is what happens when you build a better mousetrap for measuring coaching failure—suddenly, everyone wants to know which coaches are actually the mice.