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  • South Carolina's New AD Bet $50 Million On Shane Beamer In His First 60 Days. Now They're 3-7 And Stuck With A $28 Million Disaster

South Carolina's New AD Bet $50 Million On Shane Beamer In His First 60 Days. Now They're 3-7 And Stuck With A $28 Million Disaster

Plus: Baylor's AD Resigns Effective Immediately, Penn State Wants Kalen DeBoer (But Won't Get Him), And Why The Big Ten's Real Problem Isn't Money - It's Boring Football

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IN THIS ISSUE

South Carolina extended Shane Beamer for $50.4 million in January after a 9-4 season that included wins over four ranked opponents.

Ten months later, they're 3-7 and staring at a $28 million buyout.

I break down how new Athletic Director Jeremiah Donati rushed into the worst contract decision in school history—and why moving too fast on a coach after one career-best season is a mistake other ADs need to avoid.

Also in this issue: Baylor's AD resigns effective immediately. Penn State's interest in Kalen DeBoer. Why the Big Ten's biggest problem isn't money. And speculation is heating up around Kentucky's Mitch Barnhart.

Was this newsletter forwarded to you? [Sign up here].

—Mark

P.S. Where does your coach rank this week? See our full Coaches Hot Seat Rankings [here].

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BEST LINKS

Baylor AD Mack Rhoades Resigns, Effective Immediately

Mack Rhoades is out at Baylor.

The university announced that Rhoades, who had been on leave for personal matters, submitted his resignation as Athletic Director effective immediately. His reason? "I find myself in a season of life where I need to prioritize my faith and my family with an intentional focus that requires me to move on."

Co-interim Athletic Directors Jovan Overshown and Cody Hall will continue in their roles while Baylor conducts a search for a permanent replacement.

Translation: One of college athletics' bigger AD jobs just opened up—and Baylor says they're moving "aggressively" to fill it. [FULL STORY] [ANNOUNCEMENT]

Penn State's Interest in Kalen DeBoer Heats Up After Oklahoma Loss

Penn State wants Kalen DeBoer.

The Centre Daily Times' beat reporter Jon Sauber said it out loud on Tide 100.9's The Game with Ryan: DeBoer is the Nittany Lions' top target to replace James Franklin. And Alabama's loss to Oklahoma? That "nudged the door open a little bit."

But here's the thing: Sauber still thinks Alabama would need to collapse completely: miss the playoffs, lose to Auburn, the whole disaster scenario, for this to become real. Right now, the Tide controls its own destiny for a conference championship and College Football Playoff berth.

Translation: Penn State can want DeBoer all they want. Doesn't mean they're getting him. [FULL STORY HERE]

The Big Ten's Biggest Problem Isn't Money

Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti is chasing private equity deals.

He should be chasing better football.

Bryan Fischer at Sports Illustrated breaks down why the conference's obsession with $2.4 billion paydays is obscuring a bigger problem: the product on the field is boring. Sure, Ohio State and Indiana are elite. But beyond those two (maybe four) programs? The Big Ten has just eight conference games that averaged over five million viewers this season. The SEC has 19.

Translation: You can't sell investors on history and large fan bases when nobody's watching your games.

Fischer argues Petitti should focus on private quarterback coaches, not private equity, on making the Big Ten watchable again, rather than bridging revenue gaps with complicated financial deals. [FULL STORY HERE]

Is Mitch Barnhart's Time at Kentucky Running Out?

Kentucky Sports Radio's Matt Jones thinks UK Athletic Director Mitch Barnhart is done after this year.

"I am more confident about this than I was yesterday. This is Mitch's last year."

Jones points to several clues—including a donation commitment for a complex that ends this year—and says his sources suggest a new AD is "very, very likely." His prediction for the replacement? Either DePaul's DeWayne Peevy or the current UK Deputy AD Marc Hill.

Translation: Kentucky might be getting new leadership at the top, and the speculation is officially heating up. [FULL STORY HERE]

DEEP DIVE

Shane Beamer Signed A $50 Million Extension In January. By November, South Carolina was 3-7 And Owes Him $28 Million To Leave

College football contracts are designed to protect coaches, not programs.

South Carolina learned this lesson the hard way in 2025. In January, they extended Shane Beamer through 2030 with a six-year deal worth $50.4 million in guaranteed money. By November, they were 3-7 and staring at a $28 million disaster.

How A New Athletic Director's First Decision Became A Program-Defining Mistake

Here's what happened:

  • Shane Beamer finished 2024 with a 9-4 record

  • Beat four ranked opponents, including hated rival Clemson

  • South Carolina extended him in January 2025

  • The 2025 season cratered to 3-7

  • South Carolina can't afford to fire him

The math is brutal: Fire Beamer and owe $27.9 million. If Beamer leaves voluntarily, he owes just $5 million. The university pays six times what the coach pays.

A brand-new athletic director created this mess in his first 60 days on the job.

January 2025: Everything Looked Perfect

Shane Beamer was untouchable in Columbia.

The wins that changed everything:

  • Beat No. 5 Tennessee

  • Beat No. 10 Texas A&M

  • Beat No. 23 Missouri

  • Beat Clemson 17-14 on the road

Other programs were circling. Nebraska had interest. Virginia Tech loomed as a potential destination. South Carolina couldn't risk losing their rising star.

Enter Jeremiah Donati

Donati arrived from TCU in December with an impressive resume:

  • Seven years building TCU into a powerhouse

  • Eight national championships across multiple sports

  • Nearly $500 million in facility upgrades

He'd been on the job less than a month when he pushed through the Beamer extension. The board approved it January 24, 2025.

The Contract Details:

  • $8.15 million in 2025

  • $100,000 annual increases

  • $50.4 million total guaranteed

  • 9th-highest paid coach in SEC

But the buyout structure was where things got dangerous.

If South Carolina fires Beamer: $27.9 million owed (10th-highest in SEC) If Beamer leaves: $5 million owed to South Carolina

The imbalance is staggering.

November 2025: The Wheels Come Off

The 2025 season became a nightmare.

The final record: 3-7 overall with just one SEC win against Vanderbilt. South Carolina got blown out by Ole Miss, choked against Alabama at home, and suffered the most devastating collapse in program history.

The Texas A&M Disaster

South Carolina led 30-3 at halftime against Texas A&M. The Aggies had minus-9 rushing yards and were 0-for-6 on third down. It looked like a blowout.

Then the second half happened:

  • Texas A&M: 298 passing yards

  • 28 unanswered points

  • South Carolina: just 76 total yards

Final score: 31-30, Texas A&M.

It was the largest comeback in Aggies history. South Carolina became the first SEC team since 2004 to lose after leading by 27+ points.

After the game, Beamer said he 'wanted to puke.' Fans wanted him gone.

The Fundamental Problem With Beamer's Success

Success built on November upsets is the most volatile foundation in college football.

Look at Beamer's biggest wins:

  • 2022: Upset No. 5 Tennessee as 14-point underdog

  • 2024: Beat four ranked teams, all as underdogs

Playing loose as the underdog is completely different than playing with expectations. When South Carolina entered 2025 ranked No. 13, everything flipped. They were no longer the scrappy underdog. They were expected to win.

And they wilted under pressure.

The question South Carolina never asked: Can he repeat this when expectations are high?

The answer: No.

How Donati Created A $28 Million Disaster

Jeremiah Donati didn't inherit this mess—he created it.

He arrived in December 2024 with a sterling reputation from TCU. He had one job: assess the program and make smart decisions. Instead, he panicked.

Donati's Fatal Errors:
  • Moved too fast—no time to evaluate

  • Bet $50 million on one season of success

  • Structured a terrible buyout that favors the coach

  • Didn't wait to see if success would translate with expectations

  • Ignored warning signs about upset-based success

  • No flexibility or offset language in the contract

In a radio interview, Donati revealed his thinking. He'd 'heard great things' about Beamer from other coaches. He wanted to 'lock in' Beamer and Dawn Staley quickly. He expressed 'relief and excitement' at finalizing the deals.

His statement in January: "The culture and commitment to excellence that Coach Beamer has built shows we are headed in the right direction and on a strong upward trajectory."

That was January 24, 2025. Ten months later: 3-7 dumpster fire.

This is entirely on Jeremiah Donati.

He can't blame Ray Tanner—he was gone. He can't blame the board—he championed it. He can't blame Beamer—Donati set the expectations.

He wanted to make a splash as the new guy. Instead, he rushed into the worst contract decision in school history.

The Financial Nightmare

What it costs to move on from Beamer:

Immediate costs:
  • Beamer buyout: $27.9 million

  • New coach: $7-8 million per year

  • New staff: $8-10 million per year

  • Mike Shula dead money: $1.1 million per year through 2027

Infrastructure costs:
  • Facilities upgrades

  • Recruiting budget increases

  • Support staff expansion

Total to reset the program: $40-50 million over multiple years.

South Carolina's harsh reality:
  • Total athletic revenue: $184 million

  • Football profit: approximately $30 million

A Beamer firing wipes out an entire year of football profit. The math simply doesn't work for a program already stretched financially.

The Three Possible Outcomes (All Bad For Donati)

Scenario 1: Keep Beamer (Most Likely)

Donati runs it back and prays Beamer figures it out. The problem: if 2026 is more of the same, Donati's reputation is destroyed. He'll be known as the AD who torpedoed a program with one terrible decision.

Scenario 2: Beamer Negotiates A Reduced Buyout

This requires Beamer to give Donati a lifeline. Why would he? Beamer has no incentive to help the man who set impossible expectations. He's owed the money legally. Why walk away from $28 million?

Good luck with that.

Scenario 3: Eat The Buyout

The nuclear option that destroys Donati's credibility forever. He'd have to admit his first major decision was catastrophically wrong. That he wasted $28 million. That he didn't do proper due diligence.

Most athletic directors don't recover from Year 1 disasters of this magnitude.

What Happens Next

Two games remain:

  • November 23: Coastal Carolina

  • November 29: Clemson

Best case scenario: Win both and finish 5-7. This gives Donati political cover to run it back with Beamer for one more year.

Worst case scenario: Lose to Clemson and finish 3-9. The pressure intensifies on both men. Donati's judgment gets questioned publicly.

Paul Finebaum nailed it: Beamer 'almost needs to beat Clemson now' to survive. A loss makes Donati's first decision look even more catastrophically bad.

Potential replacement candidates:

  • Jon Sumrall (Tulane)

  • Brian Hartline (Ohio State OC)

  • Brent Key (Georgia Tech)

  • Will Stein (Oregon OC)

But it's all hypothetical unless South Carolina finds $28 million or Donati admits his bet was wrong.

Critical Lessons For Other Athletic Directors

The warning signs were all there:

  • Don't extend coaches after career-best seasons—even if you're new to the job

  • Buyout structure matters more than salary numbers—who pays what when it goes wrong?

  • One great season ≠ six years and $50 million guaranteed

  • Take your time—60 days isn't enough for a $50 million decision

  • Understand the difference between underdog success and handling expectations

The bottom line: Donati came from TCU where he'd built championship programs. He wanted to show he could identify and lock down winners at South Carolina.

But he moved too fast, bet too big, and structured the deal poorly.

Now he's stuck with a decision that could define his entire tenure in Columbia.

The Bottom Line

Jeremiah Donati had one of the best reputations in college athletics when he arrived at South Carolina.

He'd built championship programs at TCU. He was supposed to bring that same expertise to Columbia. Instead, he made the worst decision of his career in his first 60 days.

He extended Shane Beamer for $50.4 million based on one season of upset victories. He didn't wait to see if that success was sustainable when expectations changed. He structured a buyout that heavily favors the coach.

This isn't about Shane Beamer anymore.

This disaster belongs entirely to Jeremiah Donati. He panicked. He rushed. He bet $50 million without proper due diligence.

South Carolina fans wanted a proven winner from TCU. Instead, they got an athletic director whose first major decision might haunt the program for years.

That's on Jeremiah Donati. Nobody else.

 

THAT’S A WRAP

New rankings drop Tuesday.

After a week that saw Alabama lose to Oklahoma, Penn State's interest in Kalen DeBoer heat up, and the Big Ten continue to underwhelm on the field, we'll reassess all 136 FBS coaches based on who's feeling the most pressure heading into the final stretch of the regular season.

Two games left for most programs. Conference championship races are coming into focus. The coaching carousel is already spinning.

Translation: The hot seat rankings are about to get very interesting.

See you Tuesday.

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