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  • SPECIAL ISSUE: American Athletic Conference (AAC) Coaches Hot Seat Rankings - Preseason 2025

SPECIAL ISSUE: American Athletic Conference (AAC) Coaches Hot Seat Rankings - Preseason 2025

Our exclusive analysis of the American Athletic Conference reveals a shocking disparity—thirteen coaches sleeping soundly while one faces a guillotine dangling by a fraying thread.

IN THIS ISSUE

COACHES ON THE BRINK: UNPACKING THE AAC'S SURPRISING HOT SEAT LANDSCAPE

Which AAC coach quietly packs boxes while others build dynasties?

In the high-stakes theater of college football, job security can evaporate faster than a fourth-quarter lead. Our exclusive analysis of the American Athletic Conference reveals a shocking disparity—thirteen coaches sleeping soundly while one faces a guillotine dangling by a fraying thread.

The answer might surprise you.

For a conference desperately fighting to establish itself as the premier "Group of 4" power, how these fourteen programs handle their leadership could determine whether the AAC rises to challenge Power 4 programs or falls further behind in college football's increasingly stratified landscape.

Scroll down to our DEEP DIVE section, where we rank every AAC coach from scorching to ice-cold, expose the truth behind UAB's spectacular failure, reveal Tulane's quarterback catastrophe that's unfolded this spring, and predict which first-year coaches have the longest runways before win-now pressure begins.

ALSO INSIDE: Memphis's quarterback gamble, Navy's transfer portal advantage, and why Army might be positioned for back-to-back conference championships despite significant roster turnover.

Finally, don’t miss this special issue’s BEST LINKS Section, where we cover Tennessee's quarterback situation, congressional thinking about college sports oversight, and Kenni Burns's termination at Kent State.

BEST LINKS

Trends and talk from throughout the world of college football.

The college football landscape shifted dramatically last weekend when Tennessee and star quarterback Nico Iamaleava parted ways over what appears to be an NIL negotiation gone wrong. In 48 hours, the Volunteers' championship hopes were thrown into disarray as their former five-star QB no-showed practice, went silent with coaches, and ultimately forced head coach Josh Heupel to make a program-defining stand. "No one is ever bigger than the program," Heupel declared, unwittingly establishing what might become the defining principle of college football's new financial reality. Please read the full breakdown of this seismic shift and what it means for Tennessee and the future of college athletics. LINK

A Newly-introduced Federal Bill would force Kirby Smart to leave for the NFL: A recently proposed piece of legislation making its way through Congress is sparking major waves in college athletics—and not the kind that gets fans cheering. Tucked inside this newly introduced federal bill is a salary cap for public university employees, aimed squarely at big fish like Smart, Ryan Day, and Dabo Swinney. The bill proposes limiting any public university employee’s salary to ten times the total cost of attendance at the school they work for. LINK

Kent State fires Kenni Burns: Kent State University has terminated head football coach Kenni Burns after a disappointing two-season run that produced just one win and 23 losses. Athletic Director Randale L. Richmond announced that offensive coordinator Mark Carney will serve as interim head coach through the 2025 season, after which a national search will be conducted. Burns, who had been on paid administrative leave since March 27, expressed sadness over the decision but gratitude for his time with the program in a statement on social media. Carney brings considerable experience to the interim role, having previously served as offensive coordinator at Charlotte, where his teams averaged nearly 400 yards per game, and at Virginia State, where he helped secure a conference championship with an undefeated league record in 2017. LINK . A wave of Kent State players have hit the transfer portal: LINK

DEEP DIVE

AAC CONFERENCE COACHES HOT SEAT RANKINGS - PRESEASON 2025

In a conference racing to prove itself as the best of the "Group of 4," one coach faces a guillotine while thirteen others sleep soundly at night. We break it all down below with links to a deeper dive for team “die-hards”.

1. Trent Dilfer (UAB) 

Dilfer's seat isn't just hot—it's nuclear. After stumbling to a disastrous 7-17 record (.292 winning percentage) over two seasons, the former Super Bowl champion quarterback faces a make-or-break third campaign that will likely determine his coaching fate:

• His predecessor, Bill Clark, built a 49-26 record (.653) with a conference championship

• Home attendance has plummeted as fans vote with their feet

• Sideline meltdowns and tone-deaf comments have alienated supporters

• A massive $4.1 million buyout looms large for a program without Power Five resources

The complete coaching staff overhaul signals desperation, while the transfer portal mayhem (19 out, 13 in) reveals a program in total identity crisis. Dilfer desperately needs early-season momentum to avoid the axe. Link to our UAB DEEP DIVE

Hot Seat Status: Scorching

2. Eric Morris (North Texas)

Morris has established offensive brilliance while building for long-term success.

Entering his third season with a 6-7 record (3-5 in AAC play), Morris has constructed an offensive juggernaut that ranks among the nation's most productive:

  • 33.5 points per game (23rd nationally in scoring offense)

  • 488.8 yards per game (top 15 in FBS)

  • 328.2 passing yards per game

  • Multiple dynamic playmakers led by WR Damon Ward Jr.

Hiring defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity from Sam Houston State represents a transformative addition. Cassity's 2024 defense ranked 20th nationally in total defense and 21st in scoring defense (21.0 PPG), offering hope that North Texas might finally achieve the balance necessary for consistent success. Read our North Texas Deep Dive

Hot Seat Status: Cool

3. Alex Golesh (South Florida)

After engineering a remarkable turnaround, Golesh has transformed USF from doormat to contender.

In just his second season, Golesh guided the Bulls to a 7-6 record and a thrilling five-overtime Hawaii Bowl victory over San Jose State—ending a streak of four consecutive losing seasons. The foundation for sustained success includes:

  • The return of dual-threat QB Byrum Brown, whose health dramatically impacts team performance

  • Strategic transfer portal additions addressing key weaknesses, particularly on defense

  • Special teams overhaul fixing last season's inconsistent specialists

  • A schedule featuring statement opportunities against Boise State, Florida, and Miami

With returning QB stability, transfer reinforcements, and a year of success to build upon, Golesh has positioned USF as a legitimate threat to win 8-9 games and compete for an AAC championship game berth. Read our deep dive into the South Florida Bulls

Hot Seat Status: Cool

4. Brian Newberry (Navy)

Coming off a breakthrough season, Newberry has Navy positioned for sustained success.

The Midshipmen delivered their first 10-win season since 2019, including reclaiming the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy and securing a bowl victory over Oklahoma. The foundation for continued excellence includes:

  • Senior QB Blake Horvath (1,154 passing yards, 11 TDs, 870 rushing yards, 13 TDs) returns

  • The offense brings back 73% of its production (12th nationally in returning production)

  • The defense returns 53% of its production from a unit that surrendered just 22.2 points per game

  • A balanced 2025 schedule provides an opportunity for another championship run

While the transfer portal has revolutionized roster construction elsewhere, Navy's unique service academy structure creates competitive advantages through continuity, system familiarity, and cultural alignment. Read our Navy Deep Dive

Hot Seat Status: Cool

5. Jeff Monken (Army)

How do you put a coach on the hot seat after the most successful season in program history?

Monken's Black Knights are coming off a record-shattering 12-2 mark, including an American Athletic Conference championship in their debut season. Despite significant roster turnover, the program's foundation remains solid:

  • Center Brady Small, already named to ESPN's All-America second team, anchors the offensive front

  • The defense returns significant talent from a unit that surrendered just 15.5 points per game

  • Defensive coordinator Nate Woody provides continuity for the team's strength

  • Early projections give Army a 99.5% chance of bowling and 27.7% chance of repeating as champions

With three years of AAC membership, players now understand conference competition levels, and Monken's proven ability to develop staff suggests minimal disruption despite coaching changes. Our detailed breakdown of Army

Hot Seat Status: Cool

6. Jeff Traylor (UTSA)

Traylor's proven program-building success insulates him from any hot seat concerns.

After finishing 7-6 in 2024 with a dominant Myrtle Beach Bowl victory, UTSA enters a pivotal season with an established offensive identity powered by returning quarterback Owen McCown (3,424 passing yards). The program's stability is evident:

  • They had a perfect 6-0 record when playing in San Antonio last season

  • Offensive firepower (33.2 points per game, 27th nationally)

  • Multi-channel roster construction approach balancing transfers and high school recruits

  • Strategic focus on defensive reinforcements through the portal

The contrast between offensive continuity and defensive reconstruction creates fascinating tension. However, Traylor's ability to adapt to the transfer portal era while maintaining high school recruiting relationships gives UTSA stability in an increasingly volatile landscape. We break down UTSA’s team here

Hot Seat Status: Cool

7. Ryan Silverfield (Memphis)

Silverfield's 42-21 overall record provides job security despite significant roster turnover.

After an impressive 11-2 campaign capped by a Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl victory over West Virginia, Silverfield faces the challenge of replacing four-year quarterback Seth Henigan while maintaining momentum. The transition plan is solid:

  • Transfer QB Brendon Lewis brings 25 career starts and over 2,290 passing yards from his time at Colorado and Nevada

  • Strategic defensive reinforcements through the transfer portal address specific weaknesses

  • Coaching stability with key coordinators returning provides system continuity

  • Six Saturday home games offer scheduling consistency

The roster reconstruction through the transfer portal shows Silverfield's adaptability to modern college football, while his track record of success buys patience during this transition year.

Hot Seat Status: Cool

8. Jon Sumrall (Tulane)

Despite massive roster turnover, Sumrall's job security remains rock-solid.

After reaching the AAC Championship in his first season, Sumrall faces the challenge of rebuilding after watching top performers get poached by larger programs with deeper NIL pockets:

  • QB Darian Mensah left for Duke after throwing for 2,723 yards and 22 TDs

  • All three top receivers and star TE Alex Bauman transferred out

  • 23 new transfers have been brought in to rebuild the roster

  • The defense remains relatively intact from the 2024 squad

The quarterback situation has deteriorated into what can only be described as a full-blown crisis. Presumptive starter TJ Finley was suspended following an arrest related to a stolen Dodge Ram in Atlanta, throwing the position into complete disarray. Neither Ball State transfer Kadin Semonza nor Illinois transfer Donovan Leary managed to separate themselves during spring scrimmages characterized by missed throws, dropped passes, and squandered opportunities.

Sumrall's contract extension in December 2024 (despite Power 4 interest) demonstrates the administration's commitment. His candid acknowledgment of competing with a "$2 million roster versus a $15 million roster" shows a coach with realistic expectations during this transition year. Read more about Tulane’s outlook for 2025 HERE

Hot Seat Status: Cool

9. Blake Harrell (East Carolina)

Harrell earned his position through one of college football's most remarkable in-season transformations.

After taking over seven games into last season with ECU struggling at 3-4, Harrell led the Pirates to wins in 5 of their final 6 games, including a Military Bowl victory over NC State. The defensive specialist unlocked ECU's potential almost overnight:

  • The defense ranked 13th nationally in red zone defense (0.745)

  • Generated 14 interceptions (27th in FBS)

  • Created 22 total turnovers (27th in FBS)

  • Averaged 7.2 tackles for loss per game (14th in FBS)

Harrell's decision to keep offensive coordinator John David Baker maintains stability for an offense that averaged 436.4 total yards per game. With 15 impact transfers and the AAC's 4th-ranked recruiting class, Harrell has quickly built one of the conference's deepest rosters. More on East Carolina

Hot Seat Status: Cool

10. Tim Albin (Charlotte)

Albin brings championship pedigree to a program desperate for an identity.

After narrowly missing bowl eligibility with a 5-7 record in 2024, Charlotte completely overhauled its program by hiring Albin from Ohio University, where he compiled three consecutive 10-win seasons and won the 2024 MAC Championship. The changes are comprehensive:

  • A completely new coaching staff featuring elite coordinators

  • 15-22 new transfer players, including QBs Conner Harrell (North Carolina) and Grayson Loftis (Duke)

  • New schemes on both sides of the ball (spread option offense, 4-2-5 base defense)

  • Four consecutive home games to open the season provide a runway for success

With a $70 million stadium expansion breaking ground in 2025, the program is signaling long-term commitment to football success. Albin's championship blueprint gives him a grace period, but expectations will escalate quickly. Read our deep dive into Charlotte Football for more.

Hot Seat Status: Cool

11. Zach Kittley (Florida Atlantic)

The youngest head coach in FBS football (33 years old) brings offensive wizardry to a program needing rejuvenation.

After going 3-9 last season under Tom Herman (who was dismissed mid-season), FAU made an innovative hire in Kittley, whose offensive systems at Houston Baptist, Western Kentucky, and Texas Tech averaged 457.3 yards and 34.8 points per game over seven seasons. His arrival signals a complete philosophical shift:

  • A young, hungry coaching staff featuring bright minds from various backgrounds

  • Complete roster overhaul through the transfer portal to fit his system

  • Returning veterans like linebacker Jackson Ambush provide stability during transition

  • A balanced schedule offering both challenges and opportunities to build momentum

Kittley's youth and first-time head coaching status would typically raise questions. Still, his impressive offensive track record and FAU's desire for a complete rebuild create a perfect honeymoon period for innovation. More on Florida Atlantic

Hot Seat Status: Cool

12. Scott Abell (Rice)

Abell arrives at Rice with a proven track record of program revivals.

After a disappointing 4-8 campaign in 2024 that saw a mid-season coaching change, Rice hired Abell to bring his run-heavy approach that dominated at the FCS level with Davidson. Despite the significant philosophical transition, Abell enjoys full administrative support:

  • His track record at Davidson (47-28 record after inheriting a program without a winning season since 2007)

  • Two Pioneer Football League championships and three consecutive FCS playoff appearances

  • A coaching staff blending familiar faces and fresh perspectives

  • A schedule with six AAC programs also introducing new head coaches

Abell's history suggests he can accelerate rebuilds, and Rice's patience with previous coaches indicates he'll have the time needed to implement his ground-and-pound approach at the FBS level.

Hot Seat Status: Cool

13. K.C. Keeler (Temple)

Keeler arrives with a championship pedigree and hometown advantage.

After Temple limped to a disastrous 3-9 record in 2024 (ranking 114th out of 134 teams nationally), they turned to Pennsylvania native Keeler, who brings national championships from Delaware (2003) and Sam Houston State (2020) to North Broad Street. His reputation creates immediate credibility:

  • Three decades of coaching experience with a history of program building

  • Effective recruiting in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions

  • Complete staff overhaul bringing fresh energy and systems

  • Strategic use of the transfer portal to address immediate needs

Keeler's championship DNA and local roots provide an extended runway for his rebuilding project, regardless of first-year results. For a program that has experienced brief flashes of relevance interspersed with extended periods of struggle, Keeler's arrival offers legitimate hope backed by championship credentials. More on Temple

Hot Seat Status: Cool

14. Tre Lamb (Tulsa)

Lamb represents the perfect match for a program needing rapid revival.

The 35-year-old coaching wunderkind inherits a program coming off a 3-9 campaign (1-7 in AAC play) with significant defensive challenges. However, his track record of engineering immediate turnarounds creates boundless optimism:

  • At Tennessee Tech, as offensive coordinator, he helped elevate the team from consecutive two-win seasons to a respectable 6-6 record

  • During his Gardner-Webb tenure (2020-2023), he delivered back-to-back conference championships

  • At East Tennessee State, he flipped a 3-8 team into a 7-5 contender in just one season

  • His coaching staff combines youthful energy with tactical expertise

Athletic Director Justin Moore couldn't hide his enthusiasm when announcing Lamb's hiring, stating, "He is young, energetic, and a proven winner. We feel he is exactly who we need to lead our program and restore a tradition of winning for Tulsa in this new era of college football." Our deep dive into the Tulsa program.

Hot Seat Status: Cool

THAT’S A WRAP

If you found this issue interesting, please forward it to a friend. They’ll thank you!

While the AAC presents a surprisingly stable coaching landscape with only one hot seat, the conference across the prairie isn't nearly as secure.

Friday's issue starts our deep dive into the Big 12, where multiple programs are at critical inflection points. Unlike the AAC's relative calm, the expanded Big 12 features several coaches facing true "win or walk" ultimatums, programs hemorrhaging talent to wealthier conferences, and athletic directors with itchy trigger fingers.

The conference realignment aftershocks have created a pressure cooker environment where job security has become as rare as a shutout. Which Big 12 coach tops our hot seat rankings? Which newcomer is already feeling unexpected heat? Which traditional power secretly interviews replacement candidates behind the scenes?

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