• Coaches Hot Seat
  • Posts
  • šŸ”„ SPECIAL ISSUE: Which SEC Coaches Won't Survive 2025?

šŸ”„ SPECIAL ISSUE: Which SEC Coaches Won't Survive 2025?

We analyzed every factor that determines job security to rank the SEC's hottest seats

In partnership with

IN THIS ISSUE

The conference that eats coaches alive is hungry for more victims.

At least six head coaches are coaching for their jobs this season.

The SEC has always been ruthless, but 2025 represents a new level of coaching carnage. The conference now features 16 programs with championship expectations and zero tolerance for mediocrity.

Here's what makes this season different:

  • Buyouts that once seemed prohibitive are now routine expenses

  • Fan apathy develops after a single disappointing season

  • Recruiting battles determine job security more than bowl games

  • The transfer portal has become a coaching survival skill

In this special deep-dive issue, we rank all 16 SEC coaches from most likely to be fired to completely untouchable.

You'll discover:

  • Which coaches are already updating their rĆ©sumĆ©s

  • Who's walking the tightrope between security and unemployment

  • Why even some "safe" coaches should be watching their backs

  • The exact metrics that determine coaching survival in 2025

The coaching carousel is about to spin faster than ever.

Don't get caught off guard when the first domino falls.

(Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)

The Daily Newsletter for Intellectually Curious Readers

Join over 4 million Americans who start their day with 1440 – your daily digest for unbiased, fact-centric news. From politics to sports, we cover it all by analyzing over 100 sources. Our concise, 5-minute read lands in your inbox each morning at no cost. Experience news without the noise; let 1440 help you make up your own mind. Sign up now and invite your friends and family to be part of the informed.

DEEP DIVE

The SEC coaching graveyard is about to get a lot more crowded.

After analyzing every factor that determines job security in today's college football landscape—from win-loss records and recruiting momentum to fan sentiment and buyout structures—we've ranked all 16 SEC head coaches from most likely to be fired to completely untouchable. The results reveal a conference where even established coaches are just one bad season away from unemployment, and where traditional job security no longer exists.

1. Sam Pittman – Arkansas

Status: Hottest Seat in the SEC

  • Record: Entering year 6, Pittman is 30-31 overall, with no upward trajectory since his early success.

  • Fan/Booster Sentiment: Enthusiasm has evaporated. Major boosters are withholding support, and the fanbase is disengaged—a critical warning sign in Fayetteville.

  • Historical Context: Arkansas rarely tolerates extended mediocrity. Pittman’s lack of progress and diminished excitement make a coaching change highly likely without a 9+ win breakthrough.

  • Bottom Line: Only a major turnaround can save him; otherwise, Arkansas will move on.

2. Brent Venables – Oklahoma

Status: ā€œWin or Be Firedā€ Year

  • Record: Two losing seasons in three years, including a 2-6 SEC debut.

  • Expectations: Oklahoma is historically intolerant of mediocrity. The move to the SEC has only heightened pressure.

  • Sentiment: Fans and boosters are out of patience. Administration has already made major staff and roster changes—Venables is out of excuses.

  • Bottom Line: Anything less than a clear winning season and bowl appearance likely ends his tenure.

3. Hugh Freeze – Auburn

Status: On the Brink

  • Record: Year 3, two straight losing seasons, no bowl appearance yet.

  • Auburn Culture: Auburn has a short leash for underperformance, regardless of recruiting wins or roster excuses.

  • Fan/Booster Mood: Patience is gone; Freeze must deliver at least a bowl game or face dismissal.

  • Bottom Line: Auburn’s history is ruthless—Freeze is in the classic firing window.

4. Billy Napier – Florida

Status: Critical Juncture

  • Record: 15-22 overall, no bowl in 2024.

  • Expectations: Florida expects to contend for SEC titles, not just bowl eligibility.

  • Sentiment: Fan patience is exhausted. Boosters are prepared to pay the buyout if there’s no significant improvement.

  • Bottom Line: Only a major leap in 2025 keeps him around.

5. Mark Stoops – Kentucky

Status: Burning Hot Seat

  • Record: 4-8 in 2024, worst season in a decade, major roster turnover.

  • Fan Sentiment: Vocal frustration, buyout is large but not prohibitive. Fanbase wants change.

  • Expectations: Another losing season almost certainly ends his tenure.

  • Bottom Line: Stoops must deliver a bowl or better to keep his job.

6. Brian Kelly – LSU

Status: Heating Up

  • Record: 8-4 last year, below playoff expectations.

  • Expectations: LSU expects national titles; another year short of a playoff berth will intensify scrutiny.

  • Sentiment: Media and fans openly discuss his future; buyout is significant but not a dealbreaker.

  • Bottom Line: Kelly must deliver a Playoff-caliber season or face real jeopardy.

7. Jeff Lebby – Mississippi State

Status: Short Leash

  • Record: First year, but MSU is known for quick coaching turnover.

  • Expectations: Results are expected immediately; patience is minimal.

  • Sentiment: Any sign of regression or lack of competitiveness could result in a swift change.

  • Bottom Line: No grace period—must win now.

8. Shane Beamer – South Carolina

Status: Cool, But Must Sustain

  • Record: 9-4 in 2024, best SEC record since 2017, major wins over ranked teams.

  • Expectations: Exceeded modest preseason projections, but must maintain momentum.

  • Sentiment: Fanbase is re-energized, but the SEC is unforgiving if progress stalls.

  • Bottom Line: Not in danger now, but regression could heat his seat quickly.

9. Eliah Drinkwitz – Missouri

Status: Safe, But Watchful

  • Record: Coming off a strong year and bowl appearance.

  • Expectations: Must maintain momentum; a major drop-off would invite scrutiny.

  • Sentiment: Job is currently secure, but the leash isn’t infinite.

  • Bottom Line: Continued progress keeps him safe.

10. Mike Elko – Texas A&M

Status: Secure for Now

  • Record: Year 1 at A&M, following a high-profile firing of Jimbo Fisher.

  • Expectations: High, but Elko is given time to implement his vision.

  • Sentiment: Not on the hot seat unless things go disastrously wrong.

  • Bottom Line: Has time, but expectations are massive.

11. Josh Heupel – Tennessee

Status: Cool, But Can’t Regress

  • Record: Three straight AP Top-25 finishes.

  • Expectations: Must keep trending upward; fans expect continued relevance.

  • Sentiment: Not on the hot seat, but a major backslide would change that.

  • Bottom Line: Safe, but the standard is rising.

12. Kalen DeBoer – Alabama

Status: Very Secure

  • Record: Second year, following Nick Saban’s retirement.

  • Expectations: Immense, but given time due to transition and strong debut.

  • Sentiment: No serious pressure unless there’s a total collapse.

  • Bottom Line: Safe for now, but the Alabama job is always high-stakes.

13. Steve Sarkisian – Texas

Status: Ice Cold

  • Record: Back-to-back CFP semifinals, SEC title, elite recruiting.

  • Expectations: High, but he’s delivering.

  • Sentiment: Strong support from administration and boosters.

  • Bottom Line: Job is extremely secure.

14. Lane Kiffin – Ole Miss

Status: Among the Coolest

  • Record: 11-2 last year, consistent Top-15 finishes.

  • Expectations: Kiffin has exceeded program history; the fanbase is happy.

  • Sentiment: No credible pressure for a change.

  • Bottom Line: The Seat is among the coolest in the league.

15. Clark Lea – Vanderbilt

Status: Very Secure

  • Record: 7-6 in 2024, first bowl appearance since 2018, historic win over Alabama.

  • Expectations: Program overachieved; Lea is credited with a breakthrough.

  • Sentiment: No pressure unless there’s a total collapse.

  • Bottom Line: The Job is very safe.

16. Kirby Smart – Georgia

Status: Safest Job in College Football

  • Record: Two national titles, perennial playoff contender.

  • Expectations: National championship or bust, but Smart consistently delivers.

  • Sentiment: Unquestioned support.

  • Bottom Line: No scenario short of scandal or a multi-year collapse would put him at risk.

THAT’S A WRAP

The SEC coaching carousel will spin faster in 2025 than it has in years.

By November, at least three of these coaches will be updating their rƩsumƩs. By December, athletic directors will be making calls to agents. And by January, the most unforgiving conference in college football will have claimed more victims.

Stay tuned as we expand our coaching hot seat analysis beyond the SEC.

Next up: We're diving deep into the Mountain West Conference, where coaches at Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, San Jose State, UNLV, and more face their unique pressures and expectations. The Group of Five landscape presents different challenges, but the stakes for job security remain just as high.

Don't miss our comprehensive Mountain West coaching analysis, because every conference has coaches fighting for their professional lives.

What did you think of today's newsletter?

Have an idea or feedback? Hit reply to this email and send me a note. I read every response.

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Reply

or to participate.