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The 4 College Football Games That Expose Who's Built For Championship Competition (And Who's Still Playing Checkers)

While Texas and Ohio State battle for playoff positioning, USC's tradition problem, Auburn's portal gamble, and Florida State's desperation reveal which programs understand the modern game.

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IN THIS ISSUE

It’s here. The 2025 college football season is underway. This week, we spotlight:

The Hidden Truth About USC vs Notre Dame - Why Athletic Director Jen Cohen just exposed everything wrong with how we worship tradition in sports. Sometimes killing what everyone loves most is the only way to survive. The real lesson applies far beyond football.

Texas @ Ohio State: The Biggest Regular Season Game in a Decade - Two untested quarterbacks will determine the national championship race before September ends. Arch Manning's first road start could make or break his Heisman campaign.

Hugh Freeze's $20 Million Gamble - Auburn's coach sits at No. 6 on our hot seat rankings after spending massive money in the transfer portal. Friday night against Baylor determines if it was desperation or genius.

The stakes have never been higher.

Mike Norvell's Career Referendum - Florida State's coach went from 13-1 ACC champions to 2-10 disaster in one season. Saturday's matchup with Alabama isn't just a game—it's a professional obituary or resurrection story.

Complete Week 2 Hot Seat Rankings Drop Tuesday - All 136 coaches ranked from the walking dead to the untouchables. Every coach moves after Week 1, even if it's just one spot toward safety or danger.What’s in this issue?

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The Hidden Truth About USC vs Notre Dame (And Why Tradition Isn't Always Worth It)

Most people think college football rivalries are sacred.

They're wrong.

USC Athletic Director Jen Cohen just dropped a truth bomb that reveals everything wrong with how we romanticize "tradition" in sports—and why innovative leaders sometimes have to kill what everyone loves most.

The Problem With Sacred Cows

USC wants to extend its annual football series with Notre Dame. Sounds great, right? Historic rivalry, passionate fans, October classics under the lights.

Except there's one tiny problem:

It's killing USC's competitive advantage.

Cohen laid it out perfectly: "It's not very typical that a P4 school would travel back and forth across the country for a nonconference game in the middle of October. Show me who else is doing that."

She's right. While everyone else optimizes their schedules for conference play and championship runs, USC is stuck honoring a tradition that worked well in 1926 but makes little sense in 2024.

The Independence Tax

Here's what most people miss:

Notre Dame gets to be independent. They don't play in a conference championship. They have "a lot more flexibility in scheduling," as Cohen puts it.

USC? They're locked into the Big Ten grind. Back-to-back rivalry games. Cross-country travel that would make a flight attendant quit. Conference championships that actually matter for playoff seeding.

Notre Dame is playing checkers while USC is playing 4D chess—except USC keeps handicapping themselves with nostalgia.

The Real Lesson

This isn't really about football.

It's about the hidden cost of tradition in any competitive environment.

Every business, every career, every relationship has its version of the USC-Notre Dame dilemma. That "special client" who demands terms no one else gets. The "important meeting" happens at the worst possible time every year. The partnership that made sense 10 years ago now creates unnecessary friction.

We keep these things because they feel important. Because walking away feels like giving up something sacred.

But sometimes the most courageous thing you can do is admit that what got you here won't get you where you're going.

The Bottom Line

USC is attempting to negotiate a better deal—moving the game earlier in the season and creating terms that work for both sides.

That's leadership.

They're not killing the rivalry. They're trying to save it by making it sustainable.

The question isn't whether USC and Notre Dame should keep playing.

The question is whether you're willing to evolve your most cherished traditions—or let them slowly destroy what you're trying to build.

Because in the end, tradition without adaptation is just a slow form of suicide.

FEATURED GAME PREVIEWS

The biggest college football regular-season game in a decade kicks off Saturday.

Game: Texas @ Ohio State

Game Time: Saturday @ Noon EDT

Game Channel: Fox

Texas versus Ohio State isn't just another Week 1 matchup. This is the most anticipated season opener in college football history, featuring the No. 1 Longhorns traveling to face the No. 3 defending champion Buckeyes at noon ET in Columbus. This is just the second matchup in AP history pitting top-3 ranked teams against one another in a season opener.

The winner immediately vaults into the College Football Playoff conversation.

Two untested quarterbacks will determine the national championship race

The spotlight burns brightest on Texas quarterback Arch Manning.

Manning enters his first season as a starter with unparalleled expectations despite having zero road starts in his college career. In 2024 relief appearances, he completed 67.8% of his passes for 939 yards with 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions while adding 4 rushing scores. He's already the Heisman betting favorite.

Ohio State counters with Julian Sayin, a 5-star Alabama transfer who attempted only 12 passes last year in mop-up duty.

"I hate to say it like this, because you never want your quarterback playing like this -- he can't screw it up," former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer told "The Joel Klatt Show" about Sayin's approach.

Both programs lost their cores to the NFL

The talent exodus creates an entirely new landscape.

The Buckeyes had 14 players taken in April's NFL Draft, while the Longhorns saw 12 players taken, including first-round receiver Matthew Golden, tight end Gunnar Helm, running back Jaydon Blue, and quarterback Quinn Ewers. Ohio State returns only 7 starters, ranking 101st nationally in production retained. Texas maintains more continuity, especially in its backfield, where Quintrevion Wisner rushed for 1,064 yards in 2024.

The Longhorns also return a defense that led the nation with 22 interceptions.

The Horseshoe advantage is real.

Since Ryan Day took over as head coach in 2019, Ohio State is 37-3 straight-up in home games.

That trails only Alabama for the most home wins in college football. The Horseshoe's 100,000-plus capacity creates a cauldron that could rattle Manning in his first road start. But Texas has won 11 straight road games.

Prediction: Texas by 1

Hugh Freeze enters a crucial third season when Auburn faces Baylor Friday night.

Game: Auburn @ Baylor

Game Time: Friday @ 8:00 PM EDT

Game Channel: Fox

The Tigers travel to Waco as 2.5-point favorites against a Baylor team that finished 8-5 in 2024. Hugh Freeze enters his third season at Auburn with an 11-14 record after back-to-back losing seasons in 2023 (6-7) and 2024 (5-7). This Friday night clash at McLane Stadium kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.

Auburn spent approximately $20 million upgrading its roster through the transfer portal.

Jackson Arnold headlines Auburn's quarterback makeover

Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold leads 19 new transfers for the Tigers.

Arnold completed 154 of 246 passes for 1,421 yards and 12 touchdowns with three interceptions in 2024 while rushing for 444 yards and three touchdowns. He was benched after four starts but was reinstated and finished the season strong, including a career-high 131 rushing yards in Oklahoma's upset win over No. 7 Alabama. Arnold entered the transfer portal in December 2024 and signed with Auburn on December 14, 2024.

Hugh Freeze ranks No. 3 on On3's coaching hot seat list entering his make-or-break season.

Baylor returns 15 starters from their bowl team

The Bears went 8-5 in 2024 and earned their first bowl bid since 2022.

Baylor defeated Tarleton State 45-3 in their season opener before finishing with a winning record. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson threw for 3,071 yards and 28 touchdowns in 11 starts after taking over when Dequan Finn was injured. Dave Aranda's job was in jeopardy following a 3-9 season in 2023, but the Bears' improved record saved his position.

The Bears finished 7th in the Big 12 Conference in 2024.

Auburn's receiving corps faces Baylor's rebuilt secondary

The Tigers feature one of the nation's most talented receiving groups.

Cam Coleman caught 37 passes for 598 yards and 8 touchdowns as a true freshman, while Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr. adds proven production. Baylor's pass defense ranked 94th nationally in 2024, allowing 234.2 passing yards per game. The Bears added defensive backs through the transfer portal and hired a new passing game coordinator with experience from TCU.

"Going back to Texas and playing under Friday night lights means a lot to me," Arnold said after Auburn's practice Tuesday.

This matchup will determine which program carries momentum into its respective conference races.

Prediction: Baylor by 3

Two coaches under enormous pressure meet in a must-win Week 1 showdown.

Game: Alabama @ Florida State

Game Time: Saturday @ 3:30 PM EDT

Game Channel: ABC

Alabama travels to Tallahassee as 13.5-point favorites against Florida State in a marquee Week 1 matchup. The Crimson Tide went 9-4 in Kalen DeBoer's first season, while the Seminoles collapsed to 2-10 in 2024. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM ET on Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium with ABC providing television coverage.

ESPN's FPI gives Alabama a 90.6% chance to win.

Kalen DeBoer faces championship-or-bust expectations in Year 2

Alabama's second-year coach must prove his program belongs among the elite.

The Crimson Tide is riding a 23-game win streak in season openers, the second-longest active streak in the country. They are also 63-1 in regular-season non-conference games since 2008, with DeBoer posting dominant margins in non-conference games during his first year. Ty Simpson is expected to make his first career start at quarterback after winning a competitive summer battle.

DeBoer's teams historically make significant leaps in his second season.

Mike Norvell's job depends on immediate improvement

Florida State coach Mike Norvell enters 2025 on the hottest seat in college football.

The Seminoles went from 13-1 ACC champions in 2023 to 2-10 in 2024, their worst record in 50 years. FSU ranked third-worst in all of FBS in total offense and fourth-worst in scoring offense last season. Norvell fired both coordinators and brought in Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator and Tony White as defensive coordinator.

Florida State covered the spread in just three games all of last season.

Thomas Castellanos brings dual-threat ability to rebuilt offense

Boston College transfer Thomas Castellanos headlines FSU's roster overhaul.

Castellanos completed 288 of 491 passes for 3,614 yards and 33 touchdowns in his two seasons at Boston College while adding 1,307 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns. He became the first player in Boston College history with 2,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards in a single season. Castellanos was benched at Boston College in November 2024 and left the team before entering the transfer portal.

Alabama's experience meets Florida State's desperation

The Crimson Tide returns 15 starters while FSU starts as many as 16 transfers.

Alabama's receiving corps features Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Isaiah Horton, giving Simpson proven targets in his first start. Florida State is 1-6 against the spread over its last seven games versus top-10 ranked SEC schools. The Seminoles allowed 49 sacks in 2024, ranking among the worst in the FBS, which created concerns about protecting their new quarterback.

Saturday's outcome will set the tone for both coaches' 2025 seasons and potentially their future job security.

Prediction: Alabama by 17

A redshirt freshman making his first start faces a proven transfer under Sunday night lights.

Game: Notre Dame @ Miami

Game Time: Sunday @ 7:30 PM EDT

Game Channel: ABC

CJ Carr has never thrown a college pass.

Notre Dame travels to Hard Rock Stadium as 2.5-point favorites against Miami on Sunday night. The Irish finished 14-2 and reached the national championship game before losing to Ohio State. The Hurricanes went 10-3 and are introducing Georgia transfer Carson Beck to their home crowd.

Kickoff is 7:30 PM ET on ABC.

Carr won the job but faces immediate pressure

The redshirt freshman beat Kenny Minchey in summer competition.

Carr enters as a former four-star recruit with significant arm talent but zero collegiate experience. Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman is 2-1 in season openers as head coach. The Irish can lean on star running back Jeremiyah Love, who rushed for 1,125 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2024.

Love averages 6.9 yards per carry and generates preseason Heisman buzz.

Beck brings championship experience and recent struggles

The Georgia transfer must prove his 2024 issues are behind him.

Beck completed 64.7% of his passes for Georgia but struggled with turnovers during SEC play. He suffered an elbow injury in the SEC Championship game that required offseason surgery. Beck was originally a Heisman favorite before his conference struggles led to a decline in his draft stock.

Miami lost its top six pass catchers to the NFL Draft and the transfer portal.

Notre Dame's defense creates the biggest advantage

The Irish allowed just 15.5 points per game during their championship run.

Notre Dame returns seven defensive starters, including an All-American secondary. Miami struggled defensively despite its 10-3 record and fields a new starting secondary. The Irish last played at Hard Rock Stadium in the Orange Bowl semifinal, beating Penn State 27-24.

Sunday's winner gains crucial playoff momentum while the loser faces early doubts about their title hopes.

Prediction: Notre Dame by 8

THAT’S A WRAP

College Football’s Hot Seat Isn’t Warm—It’s a Boiling Point

Nobody understands how fast things can change for college football coaches. One Saturday, you’re the toast of the boosters. The next, you’re radioactive.

  • One blown coverage.

  • One quarterback unraveling on national TV.

  • One humiliation in front of 100,000 fans.

  • Suddenly, the same people who bought dinner last month won’t even text back.

  • That’s the beautiful brutality of the business.

Everything Hinges on One Game

A single bad game doesn’t doom a career—but it opens a door to uncertainty. You wake up on Monday and know who survived Week 1. The pressure isn’t hypothetical—it’s measurable, week by week.

  • Mike Norvell? He could inch closer to the line.

  • Hugh Freeze? Maybe up from No. 6 to No. 4.

  • Or both pull off a statement win, sliding toward safety.

Every snap, every result, moves the needle.

Tuesday: Where Every Coach Gets Ranked

The stakes aren’t just high—they’re absolute.

Tuesday drops our complete Week 2 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings. That means all 136 coaches. No one escapes the ledger.

  • No. 1: Clinging to the edge.

  • No. 136: Absolutely untouchable.

  • Most won’t budge far—but everyone moves somewhere toward pressure or peace.

It all happens behind the curtain—until we turn on the lights.

The Real Question Isn’t “Who’s Fired?”

The only thing that matters is movement.

  • Some take a step toward oblivion.

  • Others steal a breath of safety.

  • Most stand exactly where the pressure demands.

It’s incremental. It’s relentless. It’s public.

See You Tuesday. Everybody Moves.

Nobody jumps out of range. Nobody hides.

This is survival. This is the hot seat.

The rankings come on Tuesday.

 

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