- Coaches Hot Seat
- Posts
- The Lightning Strike Test
The Lightning Strike Test
Can breakthrough seasons become championship dynasties, or are most programs destined to fall back to earth?


IN THIS ISSUE
This week marks our final Big Ten deep dive, featuring three programs at entirely different stages of their championship journeys. Indiana faces the ultimate test of whether last year's magical run was real or a scheduling mirage. Oregon enters with all the pieces for another title run, except the most important oneâproven quarterback play. Illinois has captured something they haven't experienced in decades: legitimate championship expectations that aren't completely delusional. Plus, we're examining the two remaining PAC-12 survivors: Washington State's fascinating complete rebuild experiment and Oregon State's rise from conference chaos. From championship contention to survival mode, these five programs represent the full spectrum of modern college football's relentless evolution. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)

Looking for unbiased, fact-based news? Join 1440 today.
Join over 4 million Americans who start their day with 1440 â your daily digest for unbiased, fact-centric news. From politics to sports, we cover it all by analyzing over 100 sources. Our concise, 5-minute read lands in your inbox each morning at no cost. Experience news without the noise; let 1440 help you make up your own mind. Sign up now and invite your friends and family to be part of the informed.

BEST LINKS
What is NIL Go, and why is it the latest subject of debate among college sports leaders? Yahooâs Ross Dellenger observes that âwhile many doubt that the (NIL Go) clearinghouse will withstand inevitable legal challenges, administrators at the 2025 NACDA convention provided legitimate reasons for why they believe in its long-term survival.
The FBS Oversight Committee on Monday is expected to have a âdeep discussion on a single portal window,â according to The Athleticâs Chris Vannini, who notes the âhope is to come out with a recommendation and begin a path to solidify a change before the upcoming season.

DEEP DIVE
Big Ten (Final) & PAC-12 Football Season Previews
We're closing out our Big Ten coverage with three programs that couldn't be more different in their current trajectories. Indiana is trying to prove its breakthrough wasn't a fluke against a brutally upgraded schedule. Oregon is betting everything on unproven quarterback talent to maintain its championship window. Illinois has finally earned the respect it has craved for decades, and now it has to handle the pressure that comes with it. Meanwhile, the Pac-12's two survivors are writing completely different storiesâWashington State is conducting the most radical rebuild in modern college football, while Oregon State is methodically climbing out of conference realignment chaos. These aren't just season previews; they're case studies in how programs navigate success, failure, and everything in between.
Indiana Hoosiers: The Lightning Strike Test
Indiana football faces the ultimate question: Can you build a dynasty from a single magical season?
The Schedule Reality Check: Critics rightfully attacked Indiana's 2024 schedule (ranked 100th in strength), but 2025 flips the script with the 32nd-toughest slate nationally, including brutal road trips to Oregon and Penn State that will either validate or expose last year's 11-2 breakthrough.
Transfer Portal Quarterback Solution: Fernando Mendoza from Cal (3,004 yards, 68.7% completion rate) steps in to replace Kurtis Rourke, bringing the arm talent and experience needed to run Cignetti's system against legitimate Big Ten competition.
Offensive Line Overhaul: After being demolished by elite teams (13% sack rate vs. Ohio State and Notre Dame, compared to 3% against everyone else), Indiana added three Power 5 transfers to completely rebuild the trenches and protect their new quarterback investment.
Defensive Core Intact: All-American cornerback D'Angelo Ponds, linebacker Aiden Fisher (118 tackles), and pass rusher Mikail Kamara (10 sacks) return to anchor a defense that ranked 6th nationally in scoring, providing stability while the offense integrates new pieces.
Cignetti's $72 Million Commitment: The massive 8-year extension proves Indiana isn't treating 2024 as a flukeâthey're betting everything on a coach who has never had a losing season in 14 years and built championship cultures everywhere he's been.
The 2025 season will determine whether Curt Cignetti is a one-hit wonder or the architect of Indiana's permanent ascension to Big Ten relevance. The link to our Indiana Deep Dive is below:
Oregon Ducks: Championship Window Wide Open
Oregon enters 2025 with all the pieces for another title run, minus the most important oneâproven quarterback play.
The Dante Moore Question: Everything hinges on whether the former five-star UCLA transfer can replace Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel after spending 2024 learning Will Stein's system from the sidelinesâhis arm talent is elite. Still, college football is littered with can't-miss prospects who couldn't handle the pressure.
Receiver Crisis Meets Opportunity: Evan Stewart's season-ending knee injury creates a massive hole, but five-star freshman Dakorien Moore (the nation's top-ranked receiver) arrives with teammates already calling him "explosive" and versatile enough to play any position in the offense.
Elite Recruiting Machine: Oregon's No. 3 nationally ranked recruiting class features three five-stars (the most in program history) and 15 four-stars, proving that Dan Lanning has built sustainable excellence rather than relying on a single magical season.
Defense: Elite Pass Rush, Young Secondary: Matayo Uiagalelei returns as one of college football's premier edge rushers (10.5 sacks), but the secondary was rebuilt with talented freshmen like five-star corner Na'eem Offord, who must perform immediately against Big Ten offenses.
Schedule Sets Up Perfectly: Oregon avoids both Ohio State and Michigan in regular-season play, with their toughest tests coming at Penn State and on November road tripsâif Dante Moore is as good as advertised, another 12-0 regular season is absolutely possible.
The Ducks have everything needed for another championship run except the one thing that matters most: proof that their quarterback can deliver when it counts. We quack all about Oregon in our Deep Dive, linked below:
Illinois Fighting Illini: No Longer a Punchline
Illinois football has captured something they haven't experienced in decades: legitimate championship expectations that aren't completely delusional.
Luke Altmyer's Return Changes Everything: The junior quarterback's decision to return rather than transfer might be the most important moment for Illinois football in 20 yearsâhis 22 touchdowns, 5 career game-winning drives, and clutch gene give the Illini the stability that championship programs require.
Preseason Rankings Reflect Reality: Fox Sports' Joel Klatt (#10), ESPN (#11), and On3.com (#7) aren't charity rankingsâthey reflect a program that went 10-3, beat South Carolina in the Citrus Bowl, and returns 16 starters from a legitimate breakthrough season.
Transfer Portal Reinforcements: Hudson Clement from West Virginia (741 yards) and Ball State's Justin Bowick (compared to NFL's Courtland Sutton) replace NFL departures Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin. At the same time, Wisconsin transfers James Thompson Jr. and Curt Neal bolster the front seven.
Schedule Avoids Traditional Powers: Illinois dodges Penn State, Oregon, and Michigan while hosting Ohio Stateâearly road tests at Duke and Indiana will determine if this team can handle pressure, but the schedule sets up for another 10-win season.
Bret Bielema Gets Paid: The six-year, $7.7 million annually extension through 2030 signals institutional commitment and provides the coaching stability that championship programs require, building on a 28-22 record and two bowl appearances since 2021.
The Fighting Illini have moved beyond hoping for bowl eligibility to expecting championship contentionâand for the first time in decades, that's not completely insane. The link to our Deep Dive is below:
Washington State Cougars: The Ultimate Rebuild Experiment
Jimmy Rogers inherited one hell of a mess in Pullman, then decided to blow it up completely and start over with his own championship blueprint.
South Dakota State Invasion: Rogers didn't just take the jobâhe brought 15 players from his back-to-back FCS national championship teams, essentially transplanting an entire championship culture and betting his reputation that the system can scale from subdivision to FBS competition.
Portal Bloodbath and Resurrection: After losing 46 players, including starting quarterback John Mateer (to Oklahoma) and top running back Wayshawn Parker (to Utah), the Cougars face unprecedented roster demolition, but 10 players withdrew from the portal to bet on Rogers' vision.
Scheme Revolution: The Air Raid system that defined Washington State football for over a decade is deadâRogers is installing a power running game with two tight ends, ball control concepts, and defensive pressure that would be unrecognizable to Mike Leach disciples.
Schedule Geography Nightmare: Washington State faces six teams they've never played, makes three trips east of the Mississippi before Halloween, and somehow plays Oregon State twice in the same month (November 1 and 29) due to the bizarre two-team Pac-12 reality.
Rock Bottom Foundation: With historically low recruiting rankings (71st nationally) and no bowl projections, Washington State enters with the lowest expectations in program history, which is exactly where championship rebuilds sometimes begin.
Rogers is conducting the most fascinating experiment in modern college football: Can you reinvent an entire program in one offseason and remain competitive? Cougs fans can read all about it via the link below:
Oregon State Beavers: From Chaos to Contention
After surviving the conference realignment chaos and quarterback carousel disasters that produced a nightmare 5-7 season, Oregon State finally has something it hasn't had in years: legitimate hope.
Quarterback Solution That Changes Everything: Former Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy (26 touchdown passes, 2,933 yards in 2024) committed to the Beavers, bringing proven production to a position that threw just 7 TDs against 11 interceptions last seasonâMurphy alone threw nearly four times as many touchdowns as Oregon State's entire quarterback room combined.
Supporting Cast Already in Place: Senior receiver Trent Walker (901 yards) provides a proven target, healthy Darrius Clemons returns from Michigan, and Miami transfer tight end Riley Williams gives Murphy another reliable weapon, while Anthony Hankerson returns after nearly reaching 1,000 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns.
Defense Gets Complete Makeover: After managing just seven sacks all season (dead last in FBS) and allowing 30 points per game, Oregon State added Walker Harris (Southern Utah), Kai Wallin (Nebraska), and Tevita Pome'e (Oregon) to completely rebuild the defensive line through the transfer portal.
Schedule Reality Check: Seven home games provide comfort, but road trips to Texas Tech and Oregon will test every improvement. At the same time, the November meetings with Washington State (the only other Pac-12 survivor) essentially represent the entire conference in their quasi-independent existence.
Coaching Stability Arrives: Trent Bray enters his second season providing much-needed continuity, while offensive coordinator Ryan Gunderson returns for year two, giving the program the coaching stability necessary to implement sustainable systems after years of upheaval.
For a program that has faced unprecedented challenges, 2025 presents an opportunity to demonstrate that Oregon State can transition from survival mode into a team capable of competing for bowl games and earning respect. Our Oregon State Deep Dive is linked via the button below:

THATâS A WRAP
That's a wrap on our Big Ten deep dive series. From championship contenders to complete rebuilds, we've covered every angle of what promises to be the most competitive conference in college football. The stories we've uncoveredâbreakthrough programs trying to sustain success, established powers navigating transitions, and survivors clawing their way back to relevanceârepresent everything fascinating about modern college football.
Our preseason Big Ten Coaches Hot Seat rankings drop Tuesday in a special issue that's going to ruffle some feathers. We're not pulling punches on which coaches are feeling the heat before a single snap is taken.
Next week, we're diving into the SEC's most intriguing storylines with five programs that couldn't be more different: Auburn's coaching experiment, Florida's rebuilding project, Arkansas's proving ground, Oklahoma's conference transition, and Kentucky's quest for sustained relevance. From championship expectations to survival mode, the SEC never disappoints when it comes to drama.
What did you think of today's newsletter?Have an idea or feedback? Hit reply to this email and send me a note. I read every response. |
Reply