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Trump's latest executive order could reshape the entire college sports landscape.

The draft order, obtained by ESPN, directs federal agencies to clarify whether student-athletes should be classified as employees—a question that's been brewing in courtrooms and athletic departments nationwide. Here's what we know so far:

The key provisions include:

• Requiring the Department of Labor and National Labor Relations Board to determine appropriate measures for defining athlete employment status

• Mandating that any classification should "maximize educational benefits and opportunities" for student-athletes

• Directing multiple federal agencies—including the FTC, Attorney General's office, and Department of Education—to create supportive policies for college athletics

• Emphasizing the connection between college programs and future Olympic training

College sports realignment just hit peak dysfunction.

The Mountain West and Pac-12 are locked in a bitter $150 million legal battle over poaching and exit fees, and mediation talks collapsed this week with both sides nowhere near an agreement.

Here's where things stand:

• San Jose State's AD perfectly captured the mood, calling 2025-26 "almost like an arranged marriage"

• Departing schools owe $18 million each in exit fees they're fighting in court

• The Mountain West is reportedly withholding $1.3 million in NCAA student-athlete assistance funds typically used for mental health and life skills programs

• Neither conference would discuss specifics due to ongoing litigation

The real casualties? The student-athletes.

Fresno State AD Garrett Klassy didn't mince words about the Mountain West holding back NCAA mental health funding: "That part is disappointing for us because that's not money that's tied to the conferences. It's a pass-through from the NCAA. Very unexpected... you don't think going into these processes that the conference will make decisions that will impact mental health."

Mountain West Commissioner Gloria Nevarez earned grudging respect from both sides for keeping her league together through a Grant of Rights agreement. As one departing school official put it: "Gloria's a pitbull, and I respect that."

But respect doesn't pay the bills or resolve lawsuits.

The bigger picture here is crystal clear. Conference realignment has devolved into a zero-sum game where administrators prioritize legal warfare over the very students they claim to serve. When mental health funding becomes a bargaining chip, the system has officially lost its way.

DEEP DIVE

The Two Coaches Who Prove Everything You Know About Job Security Is Wrong

Year two is when college football coaches either prove their vision or pack their bags.

But here's what makes the 2025 season fascinating: two coaches sitting on completely opposite ends of the success spectrum are facing the exact same make-or-break moment. One coach has won just 25% of his games yet somehow feels secure. The other has built a beloved program culture but can't crack the win column.

Their stories reveal the most important truth about modern college football that nobody wants to admit.

Why Traditional Metrics Don't Matter Anymore

Sean Lewis at San Diego State should be fired by every conventional measure.

His debut season was a disaster: 3-9 record, spectacular offensive failures, and his starting quarterback just transferred to Wisconsin. His "hot seat rating" of .531 screams danger, and athletic directors have been fired for less.

Meanwhile, Timmy Chang at Hawaii sits at 13-25 over three seasons—a .342 winning percentage that would traditionally spell doom. His hot seat rating of .441 suggests he's coaching for his career.

Yet one of these coaches just got a contract extension, and it's not the one you'd expect.

The New Rules of Coaching Survival

The transfer portal era has rewritten every rule about job security:

• Culture beats wins (when your community demands it)

• Local connections matter more than national rankings

• Player retention signals program health better than bowl games

• Fan passion can override athletic department impatience

• Recruiting momentum predicts future success better than past results

These coaches represent two different experiments in what actually keeps you employed in modern college football.

What This Season Will Prove

The 2025 season becomes the ultimate laboratory for coaching philosophy.

Lewis must prove that tactical adjustments and transfer portal additions can salvage a failing system. Chang must demonstrate that cultural foundation and community support can finally translate into the wins that validate everything he's built.

One coach is fighting for immediate results to save his job. The other is fighting to prove that patience and culture-building can eventually deliver championships.

The winner doesn't just keep their job—they define the future of how college football programs should be built.

San Diego State 2025: The Make-or-Break Season

School: San Diego State

Head Coach: Sean Lewis

Record: 3 - 9, .250

Years at School: 2

Hot Seat Rating: .531

Year two is when college football coaches either prove their vision or get fired.

Sean Lewis faces this reality entering the 2025 season after a brutal 3-9 debut at San Diego State. His AztecFAST attack failed spectacularly, the defense couldn't generate turnovers, and now his starting quarterback transferred to Wisconsin.

Everything must change, or Lewis becomes another coaching casualty.

The Danny O'Neil Disaster

Losing your starting quarterback in the transfer portal is a program killer.

Danny O'Neil became the first true freshman starting quarterback in San Diego State's Division I history. He threw for 2,181 yards while battling injuries all season. Then he bolted for Wisconsin to be closer to family.

"That's a big thing to me, being able to play in front of family," O'Neil explained.

His departure left Lewis scrambling to rebuild the most important position.

Four Quarterbacks, Zero Proven Winners

Lewis responded by bringing in four different quarterbacks to compete for the starting job:

• Jayden Denegal: Michigan transfer who backed up J.J. McCarthy

• Bert Emanuel Jr.: Central Michigan transfer known for running ability

• Kyle Crum: Returning junior with 5 career completions

• JP Mialovski: True freshman from Long Beach

None of these players has proven they can lead a college offense.

Denegal offers the most traditional quarterback skills after three years learning behind McCarthy. "The biggest thing I could say is, in my opinion, he has one of the greatest one-play mindsets out there," Denegal said of his former teammate.

Emanuel Jr. brings a different dimension as a dynamic runner who carried 145 times for 844 yards at Central Michigan.

The winner inherits an offense desperate for any kind of consistency.

Defense Keeps Lewis Employed

Two elite defensive players might save Lewis's job.

Edge rusher Trey White recorded 12.5 sacks and ranked fifth nationally despite playing on a terrible team. Linebacker Tano Letuli led with 70 tackles and brings veteran leadership.

Both stayed loyal when they could have transferred anywhere.

"They are loyal to the soil and they are loyal to the work they've done and put in," Lewis said. "They're not interested in winning only when it's convenient here at San Diego State."

These two players represent the foundation Lewis must build around.

The Schedule Tells the Story

Early games will determine Lewis's fate:

• August 28 vs. Stony Brook: Must-win season opener

• September 6 at Washington State: First real test

• September 20 vs. California: Statement game opportunity

• September 27 at Northern Illinois: Dangerous road trap

Lewis noted that three games last season were lost by just 9 total points.

Small improvements could translate to several additional wins, but small setbacks could mean another disaster season.

The Verdict

Lewis gets one more chance to prove his system works.

The defense returns enough talent to compete if the offense generates any production. The schedule provides winnable early games that could build momentum.

But college football patience has disappeared in the transfer portal era.

If the quarterback situation remains unsettled, Lewis will be coaching for his job by October. If someone emerges as a reliable starter, the Aztecs could surprise people.

Year two separates the real coaches from the pretenders.

The Coach Who Mastered Everything Except Winning

School: Hawaii

Head Coach: Timmy Chang

Record: 13 - 25, .342

Years at School: 4

Hot Seat Rating: .441

Timmy Chang has solved college football's hardest problem.

He just hasn't solved the one that matters most.

The Impossible Paradox

Chang is beloved in Hawaii despite a 13-25 record.

His hot seat rating sits at .441, technically placing him in danger territory. Yet the University of Hawaii just extended his contract through 2026, and community support remains unwavering.

Why?

Because Chang accomplished something his predecessors couldn't: he restored the "Braddahhood" culture that defines Rainbow Warrior football.

"Coach Chang has established a foundation of Warrior culture that our football program needed when he came home three years ago," acting Athletics Director Lois Manin said.

The challenge heading into 2025? Proving that cultural leadership can finally translate into wins.

The Missing Piece Arrives

One player could change everything.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Micah Alejado took over following Brayden Schager's departure, and his debut was spectacular:

• 469 passing yards and 5 touchdowns

• Zero interceptions

• 523 total yards (second-most in FBS in 2024)

• First Hawaii QB ever with 450+ passing and 50+ rushing in same game

The stat that matters most? He hasn't thrown an interception since junior year of high school.

Hawaii's biggest problem under Chang has been turnovers (-8 margin in 2024).

Alejado's ball security could unlock everything.

The Defense Returns Intact

Hawaii enters 2025 with something they've lacked: continuity.

All six leading tacklers return, including:

• Linebacker Jamih Otis (55 tackles, 5 TFL)

• Defensive end Elijah Robinson (5 sacks, 10.5 TFL)

• Safety Peter Manuma (43 tackles, 3 pass breakups)

"It all starts with a loaded linebacking corps that could be among the Rainbow Warriors' best in a long, long time," College Football News noted.

This veteran leadership provides the defensive foundation Chang's teams have needed.

The Schedule Creates Opportunity

Vegas projects 5.5 wins for Hawaii in 2025.

The early slate offers genuine chances for momentum:

• August 23 vs Stanford (nationally televised on CBS)

• September 6 vs Sam Houston (home)

• September 13 vs Portland State (home)

Three straight home games to open Mountain West play represent Hawaii's longest homestand since 2015.

Road tests at Colorado State, San Jose State, and UNLV will determine if improved depth can handle travel challenges.

The Ultimate Test

Chang finds himself in college football's most unique situation.

He's proven that cultural restoration can rebuild program identity, improve player retention, and earn genuine community support. His popularity provides insulation from typical hot seat pressures despite the .441 rating.

But Hawaii's passionate fanbase ultimately expects their cultural champion to deliver wins that validate their faith.

"Last year, we're so close to winning some of these games," Chang recently said. "The mindset moving forward is where do we close the gap in those one to two plays a game that really make the difference?"

Those one to two plays represent everything.

What 2025 Means

This season will answer college football's most compelling question: Can cultural impact alone sustain a coaching career?

Chang has mastered program building, community connection, and player development. He's created sustainable culture that previous coaches couldn't establish.

Now comes the ultimate test: proving that the "Braddahhood" can finally produce the wins that have remained tantalizingly out of reach.

Hawaii opens August 23rd against Stanford on national television.

Time to discover if culture can finally create championships.

THAT’S A WRAP

The Mountain West chaos isn't just a legal story—it's a human one.

Next week, we're diving deep into the five programs caught in the middle of this conference realignment nightmare: Colorado State, Fresno State, Boise State, Air Force, and San Jose State. These aren't just schools switching leagues; they're programs trying to survive in a system that's prioritizing lawsuits over student-athletes.

We'll examine how each program is navigating the uncertainty, which coaches are thriving in the chaos, and which ones might not survive the transition.

Because while commissioners fight over exit fees, these coaches are fighting for their careers.