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  • Two Coaches On The Hot Seat Face Off Saturday Night. One Survives. The Other Runs Out Of Runway.

Two Coaches On The Hot Seat Face Off Saturday Night. One Survives. The Other Runs Out Of Runway.

Mark Stoops (#16) vs Hugh Freeze (#5) in Auburn. Wake Forest looks like easy money against Mike Norvell (#1), until you see the numbers. Plus: LSU's governor just hijacked their coaching search, Nebraska locked down Matt Rhule with a $15M buyout, and Kent State's interim coach earned the permanent job by snapping a 17-game losing streak.

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IN THIS ISSUE

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Hot Seat Games We're Watching: Kentucky vs Auburn

Mark Stoops (#16) vs Hugh Freeze (#5). One coach survives, the other runs out of runway. Kentucky can't run the ball in SEC play. Auburn's run defense is suffocating. The math says this isn't close—but one of these coaches is fighting for his job.

Wake Forest Looks Like Easy Money Against Florida State. It's A Trap.

Wake is 5-2. FSU is 3-4 with Mike Norvell sitting at #1 on the hot seat. Every bettor thinks this is free money. Then you look at the adjusted stats: both teams score 30.5 PPG in Power 5 games. Wake moves the ball better. And they're still going to lose by a field goal.

LSU's governor just hijacked their coaching search and fired the AD. Nebraska locked down Matt Rhule with a $15 million buyout so Penn State can't poach him. And Kent State's interim coach snapped a 17-game losing streak and earned the permanent job. Three stories. Three completely different outcomes.What’s in this issue?

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LSU's Coaching Search Just Became a Political Circus

And it's not going to end well.

Most coaching searches happen behind closed doors.

Not this one.

Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry just inserted himself into LSU's coaching search - and what should be a routine hire has turned into a disaster. The Board of Supervisors (not AD Scott Woodward) will supposedly make the final call. Landry's take? "I'd let Donald Trump select him before I'd let [Woodward] do it."

Here's the problem:

Scott Ballard, the chair of the LSU Board of Supervisors, was unaware of the plan the governor laid out, which involved the board selecting the next coach, saying, “I didn't know that,” when asked about Landry's statements. Meanwhile, Landry is ranting about Brian Kelly's $100M contract, ticket prices, and agent conflicts of interest (never mind that Woodward didn't extend Jimbo Fisher's contract at Texas A&M - that was Ross Bjork).

The governor wants accountability? Fine. That's his role.

But taking over the search entirely? That's how you turn a top-tier program into a laughingstock. No elite coach is going to touch this job when the governor just got the last guy fired and is now meddling in who gets hired next.

Oversight and direction? Sure. Going off half-cocked and hijacking the process? That's how you end up with nobody wanting the job.

LSU just went from a championship program to a cautionary tale.

Read the full story: HERE and HERE

UPDATE: LSU and AD Scott Woodward are finalizing an agreement to part ways, according to multiple sources. Yahoo's Ross Dellenger notes Woodward is owed around $6.4M for his buyout and expects Executive Deputy AD/Executive Director of External Relations Verge Ausberry to serve as Interim AD. [LINK]

Nebraska Just Made Matt Rhule Untouchable

And Penn State's coaching search just got a lot harder.

Most contract extensions are routine.

This one is a statement.

Nebraska has locked down Matt Rhule through 2032 and made sure no one can poach him without paying dearly. The buyout to leave this offseason? $15 million. That's not a speed bump. That's a wall.

Here's why this matters:

Rhule, a Penn State alum, was the obvious candidate for the Nittany Lions after they fired James Franklin. The fit made too much sense. The timing seemed perfect. And now? Nebraska has just ensured that conversation doesn't happen - or at least, doesn't happen cheaply.

This is how you protect your investment.

Rhule has Nebraska trending in the right direction, and the administration wasn't about to let him walk for his dream job without a fight. Penn State can still make a run at him, but they'll have to open the checkbook wide. And in a world where every school is already hemorrhaging money on coaching buyouts, that $15 million price tag is a serious deterrent.

Nebraska learned from watching everyone else lose their coaches.

They just made sure it won't happen to them.

Mark Carney Just Earned the Job at Kent State

And it wasn't handed to him.

Most interim coaches are placeholders.

Mark Carney is not.

Kent State officially removed the interim tag Thursday, naming Carney its full-time head football coach. And he earned every bit of it. After taking over a program that went 1-23 under Kenni Burns (who was fired for multiple contract violations), Carney didn't just stabilize the ship; he turned it around.

Here's what he's done in seven months:

Snapped a 17-game losing streak with a season-opening win over Merrimack. Picked up Kent State's first conference victory since 2022 against UMass and then rallied from a 21-3 deficit in the fourth quarter to beat Bowling Green 24-21 last Saturday. The Golden Flashes are now 3-5 overall and 2-2 in the MAC.

That's not luck. That's leadership.

Carney didn't inherit a program; he rebuilt one. And Kent State's administration recognized what everyone watching already knew: this guy is the right man for the job. "What our players and staff have done over the last seven months inspires me daily," Carney said.

Congrats to Mark Carney. He didn't get the job because of politics or connections.

He got it because he won.

HOT SEAT GAMES WE’RE WATCHING

Kentucky vs Auburn: One Coach Survives, The Other Runs Out Of Runway

Game: Kentucky @ Auburn

Game Time: Saturday @7:30 PM

Network: SEC Network

This isn't just another SEC game.

This is coaching survival mode. Mark Stoops (#16 on the hot seat) vs Hugh Freeze (#5 on the hot seat). One walks away with breathing room. The other feels the temperature rising.

Here's Why Auburn Wins By Double Digits

Kentucky's fatal flaw:

They can't run the ball in SEC play. 121.6 rushing yards per game against conference opponents. When you're one-dimensional against elite defenses, you lose. That's not opinion—that's math.

Auburn's decisive edge:

Their run defense is suffocating. Opponents average just 84.1 rushing yards per game. Kentucky's weakness meets Auburn's strength. That's the ballgame.

The numbers don't lie:

  • Auburn allows 21.1 PPG

  • Kentucky scores just 19.4 PPG in SEC games

  • Auburn averages 0.5 turnovers per game

  • Kentucky bleeds 1.6 turnovers per game

In close games, that margin is everything.

Home field seals it:

Auburn gains 20 yards and 4 points per game at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Kentucky is 0-2 on the road this season. They can't win away from Lexington.

The Bottom Line

Auburn 27, Kentucky 17.

Hugh Freeze buys himself time. Mark Stoops falls to 0-6 in SEC play and watches his seat get hotter.

For Kentucky to pull the upset, they'd need their passing game to suddenly become elite, Auburn to commit multiple turnovers, and a complete defensive transformation.

None of those things is happening.

This is what college football has become in 2025. Every game is an evaluation. Every loss adds weight. And when you look at the numbers, Auburn has every statistical advantage.

Take the Tigers and sleep easy.

Wake Forest Looks Like The Easy Bet Against 3-4 Florida State. Here's Why Backing The Demon Deacons Is A Trap

Game: Wake Forest @ Florida State

Game Time: Saturday @7:30 PM

Network: ACC Network

Wake Forest is 5-2. Florida State is 3-4 with Mike Norvell sitting at #1 on the Coaches Hot Seat.

Every bettor in America thinks this is free money for Wake.

It isn't.

Here's what you see scrolling through ESPN: Wake's rolling, FSU can't get out of its own way, and Norvell's making $7.3M to produce a disaster season. Easy money, right?

Here's what the adjusted stats show: Strip out the cupcake games and examine Power 5 competition only. Both offenses score exactly 30.5 points per game. Wake is actually MORE efficient (6.30 vs 5.97 yards per play). They move the ball better than FSU does.

So why is this a trap? Because Wake can't finish drives.

Wake averages 0.86 passing touchdowns per game. Less than one. Meanwhile, FSU converts drives into touchdowns at a 4.0 per game rate. Wake will march 70 yards and kick field goals. FSU will get short fields and cash in on all the touchdowns.

Add FSU's defensive ceiling—the same unit that held Alabama to 17—and this game flips. When that D-line shows up, Wake's ground game gets stuffed, and their passing attack can't compensate.

Final: FSU 31, Wake 28

Wake will have more yards. They'll control the clock. They'll appear to be the better team on paper.

And they'll still lose by a field goal because in college football, the team that finishes drives beats the team that moves the ball. Every single time.

THAT’S A WRAP

This is what college football looks like in 2025.

Every game is an evaluation. Every loss adds weight. And the coaches who survive aren't always the ones with the best records—they're the ones who understand the math, control the narrative, and win when it matters most.

Saturday night, two coaches on the hot seat face off in Auburn. One walks away with breathing room. The other watches the temperature rise.

Tuesday, we'll release our Week 11 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings.

All 136 FBS coaches. The numbers don't lie—and neither do we.

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