IN THIS ISSUE
Mark here.
Cal just hired a head coach who has never been a head coach. Not in college. Not in high school. Not anywhere. Tosh Lupoi was Oregon's defensive coordinator, Rivals' National Recruiter of the Year, and a two-time national champion under Saban. He also has a fake injury scandal, a controversial departure that took five-star recruits with him, and zero reps running a full program. We graded the hire. The answer might surprise you.
Also: The 2026 recruiting class has turned National Signing Day into a negotiation chamber. One recruit asked for a signing bonus, vehicle stipend, rental house, insurance policy, and field passes for his agents. His parent asked to be paid on the side. We break down the numbers.
We also look at two programs carrying a combined $971.7 million in athletic debt. Florida State's AD just sent boosters a 2,000-word email insisting everything is fine. It isn't. And Penn State tripled its debt to $534.7 million while setting an attendance record and watching ticket revenue fall by $11.3 million. The math isn't mathing.
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šļø LIVE: Coaches Hot Seat Breakdown
Who's safe? Who's already in trouble? And what actually separates coaches who win from coaches who get fired?
On February 12th at 4:00 pm Eastern, I'm joining the Targeting Winners podcast for a live YouTube breakdown of the college football coaching landscape. We're talking tiers, trends, job security, and which coaches are set up for success in 2026 before a single game is played.
Send your questions. We're covering the coaches you love, the coaches you love to hate, and everything in between.
Hit reply and send us your questions. We'll cover as many as we can during the show.
ON THE RADAR
$1,000 Just to Visit Campus. $5 Million Before Taking a Snap. Welcome to Recruiting in 2026.
National Signing Day used to be fax machines and press conferences in high school gyms. Now it's agents brokering junior day visits, parents requesting monthly stipends, and five-star quarterbacks signing three-year deals worth more than most NFL rookie contracts.
The numbers are staggering:
Texas A&M spent $924,481 on official visit weekends alone last summer
USC reportedly dropped $10-12 million on their 2026 recruiting class
Monthly "commitment fees" of $2,000-$5,000 are now routine
One recruit's wish list included a signing bonus, vehicle stipend, rental house, insurance policy, field passes for his agents, and a guaranteed jersey number
One parent even asked to be paid on the side.
Seven of 13 GMs surveyed believe Miami OT commit Jackson Cantrell is the highest-paid player in the class, earning over $2 million before ever playing a college snap.
Why This Matters: This is the environment every coach on the Coaches Hot Seat is now operating in. The programs that figure out how to spend smart will survive. The ones that overpay on potential and underpay on evaluation will blow through their revenue-sharing budgets by Year Two. Twelve months from now, we'll know who recruited a roster and who just bought one.
Florida State Has $437 Million in Athletic Debt, a Gutted Roster, and No Offensive Coordinator. The AD Just Sent an Email Saying Everything Is Fine.
Three months into the FSU offseason, the picture keeps getting worse.
The Seminoles lost 35 players to the portal, 11th-most in the country. Of the 10 schools ahead of them, eight had new head coaches. The other two were Colorado and Mississippi State, who combined for 17 losses. Six of the top 10 players from Norvell's best recruiting class are now committed elsewhere.
The replacement haul hasn't inspired confidence:
Portal class ranked 26th after finishing top-10 each of the previous four years
The Athletic left FSU out of its top-25 portal rankings entirely
Only 5 of 22 incoming transfers played at a P4 school with a winning record
Quarterback answer is Ashton Daniels: 24 TDs, 22 INTs, never completed above 63% in a season
OC Gus Malzahn retired after 14 months, leaving Norvell to call plays again with a quarterback he built the offense around a coordinator to develop
Then came the email. AD Michael Alford sent boosters a 2,000-word blast titled "IMPORTANT UPDATES FROM FSU ATHLETICS" complete with a nine-question FAQ, a timeline of NCAA history going back to 1951, and the phrase "anything short of competing at the highest level is unacceptable."
The fan reaction on Tomahawk Nation's Slack channel was brutal. One commenter compared FSU to "the couple putting everything on a credit card to keep up with the Joneses." Another pointed out that the school surveyed 15,000 season ticket holders about stadium renovations, then ignored the feedback and spent $300 million on something completely different.
Why This Matters: Mike Norvell is entering Year 7 with a roster that might be less talented than the team that went 5-7. FSU carries the second highest athletic-related debt in the country. The administration is tightening purse strings while sending emails about "sustained excellence." This is what a program in freefall looks like when nobody will admit it. Norvell's seat isn't warming. It's on fire.
Penn State Just Tripled Its Athletic Debt to $534.7 Million. It Also Set a Single-Season Attendance Record. Both Things Are True.
Penn State closed FY25 as the most indebted athletic department in the country, surpassing Florida State's $437 million. The number: $534.7 million, up from $163.1 million just one year earlier.
The culprit is Beaver Stadium's $700 million renovation. But the debt is only part of the story:
Total operating expenses jumped to $254.6 million (up from $215.1 million)
Football NIL revenue-sharing hit $13.3 million before the House settlement payments were even authorized
Football ticket revenue dropped to $44.3 million (down from $55.6 million, a $11.3 million decline)
Average attendance hit 108,083 per game, a single-season record
Read that again. Attendance went up. Ticket revenue went down. That means Penn State is selling more seats at lower prices, likely through discounting, dynamic pricing, or giveaways to fill the stadium while actual per-seat yield is falling.
Why This Matters: Penn State and Florida State are canaries in the coal mine. Two of the biggest brands in college football are carrying a combined $971.7 million in athletic debt while simultaneously launching revenue-sharing programs that didn't exist 18 months ago. The schools betting on stadium renovations to drive future revenue are discovering that the bill for the building arrives at the same time as the bill for the roster. Programs that miscalculate the timing get crushed from both sides.
BEHIND THE NUMBERS
Tosh Lupoi Won National Recruiter of the Year, Coached Under Saban, and Built Oregonās Top-3 Defense. Cal Is Betting Thatās Enough to Overcome Zero Head Coaching Experience.
Cal just made the most important football hire in the programās modern history.
Tosh Lupoi has never been a head coach. Not in college. Not in high school. Not anywhere. But hereās what he has done:
ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Won Rivalsā National Recruiter of the Year while coaching at Cal in 2010
ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Helped win two national championships at Alabama under Nick Saban
ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Built Oregonās defense into a top-3 unit nationally as Dan Lanningās DC
ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Assembled a 32-man transfer portal class ranked 13th nationally before he even moved into his office
ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Ā Flew to Hawaii within 48 hours of being hired to retain star freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
The concerns are real. A fake injury scandal. A controversial departure that took five-star recruits with him. A rocky solo year as Alabamaās DC in 2018. And zero reps running a full program.
But Cal isnāt a program that can poach a proven Power 4 head coach. The Bears needed someone who wants to be in Berkeley, can recruit at an elite level, and can raise the talent baseline in the ACC.
Lupoi checks every one of those boxes.
We graded the hire, compared him side-by-side with Wilcox, and broke down what to watch in Year One.
THATāS A WRAP
On Tuesday, we continue grading new coach hires across the FBS. If your program made a move this offseason, we're getting to it.
On Thursday, I'm going live. I'm joining the Targeting Winners podcast on YouTube (February 12th, 4:00 PM Eastern) for a full breakdown of the coaching landscape heading into 2026. Tiers. Trends. Job security. Who's set up to win. Who's already in trouble. And what actually separates coaches who survive from coaches who get fired. [LINK]
We're taking your questions. Hit reply and send them in. We'll cover as many as we can during the show.
That's all for today. If this newsletter made you smarter about college football for even five minutes, forward it to someone who needs it.
See you Tuesday.
ā Mark
