Week 12 Coaches Hot Seat Rankings

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UCLA's Athletic Director Martin Jarmond And Chancellor Julio Frenk Think Moving To SoFi Stadium Will Fix Everything. The Potential $1.8 Billion Liability From Breaking Their Rose Bowl Lease Could Bankrupt An Athletic Department That's Already In The Red.

The city of Pasadena and Rose Bowl Operating Company filed for an injunction Monday to stop UCLA from fleeing to SoFi Stadium, potentially trapping the Bruins with a $1.8 billion liability their already-bleeding athletic department can't afford. Athletic director Martin Jarmond and new Chancellor Julio Frenk seem convinced a shiny new stadium will fix everything, completely missing the obvious problem: nobody wants to watch a lousy football team regardless of where it's played. The issue isn't the Rose Bowl. It's the decade of unwatchable football UCLA keeps trotting out every Saturday. A hearing as early as Wednesday could force UCLA to face reality and honor their 2044 lease agreement. Read the full story here

Fired LSU Coach Brian Kelly Demanded His Full $54 Million Buyout By Monday At 5 PM. LSU Offered $30 Million. Kelly Said No—And Now The School That's Already Bleeding Money Faces A Legal Battle They Can't Afford To Lose.

Former LSU Football HC Brian Kelly wants his money.

All $54M of it.

On November 5, Kelly's legal team sent a letter to LSU AD Verge Ausberry and Board of Supervisors member John Carmouche with a simple request: written confirmation by Monday at 5 PM that the school will "fulfill its contractual obligation" and pay the full buyout.

The kicker?

Kelly says he's still "open to any additional offers" to settle, but only if he gets that written confirmation first.

According to The Advocate's Wilson Alexander, LSU already tried to lowball him:

• A $25M lump-sum offer the day he was fired

• A $30M offer split into two payments (with mitigation clauses removed)

Kelly rejected both.

Now he's drawing a line in the sand.

Either LSU honors the contract they signed, or they can make him a better offer with the leverage firmly in his hands. Full Story Here

COACHES HOT SEAT RANKINGS - WEEK 12

Week 12 is where the excuses run out completely.

Week 11 exposed the pretenders.

Week 12 eliminates them. This is the part of the season where athletic directors stop debating and start deciding. Where donor patience either holds or shatters entirely.

The "we're close to turning the corner" narrative that might have worked in October doesn't survive November.

By Week 12, you either have tangible proof of progress or you're racing against the portal clock to find a replacement. Buyout conversations move from theoretical to tactical. Board meetings shift from "let's give him more time" to "what's our exit strategy?"

Week 12 separates the coaches who survive the season from those who won't make it to December.

And for these ten coaches? The clock is ticking louder than ever.

1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Jonathan Smith remains at #1, and the situation in East Lansing has moved from crisis to terminal. The $33M+ buyout that once seemed prohibitive is now just a number that major donors are actively working to fund. His 8-13 record isn't just bad, it's a complete program collapse that's destroying Michigan State's identity. New AD J Batt inherited this disaster and faces mounting pressure to act. Recruiting has gone from struggling to nonexistent, with elite prospects avoiding East Lansing entirely. The fan base has moved past anger into total apathy, which is the real death sentence. The question isn't whether Smith gets fired, it's when.

2. Mike Locksley, Maryland

Mike Locksley holds at #2, but that strong 2025 recruiting class that was his lifeline is starting to crack. Commits are taking visits elsewhere, and the locker room remains completely fractured. His 37-46 overall record tells the story of six years without real progress in the Big Ten. Fourth quarter collapses continue, and fans have stopped showing up expecting anything different. Donor support has evaporated completely, with major boosters now openly discussing replacement options. The administration's hesitation is about the competitive coaching market, not confidence in Locksley. One more collapse and it's over.

3. Mike Norvell, Florida State

Mike Norvell stays at #3, still clinging to the thin margin of player support that's kept him employed. The $55M+ buyout remains the primary obstacle, but FSU is already planning for 2026 when it becomes more manageable. His 37-32 record would be fine elsewhere, but FSU expects championships, not mediocrity. Fan skepticism continues to grow as the season progresses. That Wake Forest win bought time, but not much. Another embarrassing loss puts him right back at #1.

4. Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee

Derek Mason enters the Top 10 at #4 with a catastrophic 4-17 record over two seasons. This is complete program collapse, not a rebuilding project. His SEC pedigree from Vanderbilt hasn't translated, and the offense ranks near the bottom nationally. Donor support is gone, attendance at Floyd Stadium is embarrassing, and recruiting is nonexistent. Elite Conference USA prospects are choosing other programs because nobody wants to commit to obvious instability. The administration is trapped between Mason's contract and the reality that every game does more damage. This isn't a hot seat, it's a death watch.

5. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Luke Fickell drops to #5, but the heat hasn't decreased at all. All the goodwill from Cincinnati is completely gone after a 16-19 start in Madison. Wisconsin fans are openly questioning whether hiring Fickell was a massive mistake. The offense looks lost, the defense looks confused, and the administration's demands for "foundational change" are ultimatums, not suggestions. Recruiting has flatlined, with elite Midwest prospects now choosing programs like Iowa and Minnesota over Wisconsin. Donors are calculating buyout scenarios and floating replacement names. His $7.625M salary looked smart when everyone expected success. Now it looks like an expensive anchor.

6. Justin Wilcox, California

Justin Wilcox remains at #6 as Cal's situation reaches existential crisis levels. Nine years and a 48-54 record, with the ACC move exposing every weakness instead of creating opportunities. Fourth quarter collapses define the program now, and fans plan around expecting defeat. The real crisis is financial, donors have completely checked out and stopped funding the program. Recruiting has stagnated to the point where Cal loses battles to Mountain West schools. The administration isn't asking whether to fire Wilcox anymore. They're asking bigger questions about whether Cal football at this level is sustainable. That's far more dangerous.

7. Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Bill Belichick at #7 represents the most stunning collapse of expectations in college football. Six Super Bowl rings have produced a 4-5 record that has fans mocking a hire they celebrated months ago. One Power Four win, uncertain bowl eligibility, and a coaching style built for NFL professionals that doesn't work with teenagers. Elite recruits visit once and immediately look elsewhere. His $10M salary looked brilliant when everyone expected immediate success, now it prevents necessary program investments. The administration is losing patience and credibility with donors who expected a revolution. Every game does more recruiting damage. The experiment is failing in real time.

8. Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Shane Beamer drops to #8 after mid-season coordinator firings that were pure desperation. His 32-28 record looks fine until you remember South Carolina expects SEC competitiveness, not fighting for bowl eligibility. The firings bought time but fixed nothing fundamental. Bowl eligibility has moved from goal to survival requirement, the minimum needed to keep his job. Booster support is now conditional, demanding actual results instead of energy and South Carolina ties. Recruiting is suffering as elite prospects watch the chaos and commit elsewhere. The administration has loaded the gun. Anything less than a bowl game and he's done.

9. Dave Aranda, Baylor

Dave Aranda falls to #9, and the shine from that 2021 Big 12 Championship has completely worn off. His 36-34 record through six seasons isn't disastrous, it's just deeply uninspiring for a program that expects more. Aranda wins just enough games to avoid the hot seat entirely, but never enough to generate real momentum or championship buzz. The fan base has moved from "trust the process" to "what exactly is the process?" as another mediocre season unfolds. Recruiting has slowed as elite Texas prospects look for programs with clearer upward trajectories. Aranda's defensive expertise was supposed to be the foundation for sustained success, but it hasn't translated into consistent winning. The remaining games will determine whether Baylor sees enough to commit long-term or starts exploring other options.

10. Mark Stoops, Kentucky

Mark Stoops barely holds #10 after one Auburn win bought temporary relief from what felt like inevitable disaster. His 81-78 record through 13 seasons is both Kentucky's most successful era ever and clear evidence of a program that's hit its ceiling. Multi-year SEC losing streaks and repeated blowouts have created frustration throughout the program. The real problem? Kentucky would owe Stoops nearly $38 million if they fired him after this season, and the contract requires the full amount be paid within 60 days. That's not just expensive, it's functionally impossible for Kentucky's athletic budget. Stoops is essentially untouchable no matter how the season ends. The remaining games aren't about his job security, they're about whether another year of known limitations is acceptable. Thirteen years of evidence suggests he's taken Kentucky as far as he can.

Is your coach feeling the pressure yet?

Week 12 doesn't just separate the safe from the vulnerable. It reveals exactly how much heat every single coach in America is actually facing. From the coaches on life support at #1 to the ones sleeping soundly at #136, the pressure is real, it's measurable, and it's building every single week. Check the complete 136 FBS Coaches Hot Seat Rankings here to see exactly where your coach stands and how much pressure they're under right now.

THAT’S A WRAP

That's it for Week 12.

The pressure is real, it's measurable, and it's building every single week. Some of these coaches will survive the season. Others won't make it to December. The difference comes down to what happens on the field over the next few weeks, and we'll be tracking every single move.

In Friday's newsletter, we're breaking down the hot seat games of the week—the matchups where coaches are literally coaching for their jobs, where one loss could trigger a Sunday morning firing, and where the outcome determines whether athletic directors start making phone calls or give their guy one more week.

Until then, keep your eyes on the pressure.