BEST LINKS

Lane Kiffin has until Friday to decide if he's staying at Ole Miss.

According to The Athletic, the Rebels gave their coach an ultimatum to commit before the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. The timing isn't coincidental: Florida just fired Billy Napier, LSU fired Brian Kelly and reportedly flew Kiffin's family to Baton Rouge on a private plane, and Arkansas and Auburn both have openings. Kiffin's gone 54-19 in seven seasons at Ole Miss, but when your student section is chanting "We Want Lane" in the final minute of a win, they're not celebrating, they're begging you not to leave. [LINK]

Virginia Tech just hired James Franklin, and Penn State is paying $9 million to make it happen.

Franklin went 128-60 over 12 seasons at Penn State but couldn't win the games that mattered most—finishing 4-21 against AP top-10 opponents. After three straight losses to open the 2025 season (including double-overtime against Oregon), Penn State fired him despite starting the year ranked No. 2. Now he's headed to Blacksburg with a $49 million buyout, and Penn State is covering $9 million of it. Virginia Tech just committed $229 million to athletics over four years to support him. Franklin replaces Brent Pry (his former defensive coordinator) and becomes the Hokies' most accomplished coach since Frank Beamer retired in 2015. [LINK] [LINK]

20% of Bill Belichick's UNC roster has been cited for speeding or reckless driving since last October.

A WRAL investigation found 31 speeding charges and 10 reckless driving counts among UNC's 101-player roster—including three of Belichick's prized recruits who are repeat offenders. Khmori House (a Washington transfer) has five speeding and four reckless driving charges, with officers noting his Dodge Charger "must be too much car for him." Thaddeus Dixon has four speeding tickets and one reckless driving charge, including getting pulled over on Nov. 13 for driving with a revoked license. By comparison, NC State's 124-player roster recorded only 10 speeding citations. UNC refused to answer whether players face discipline, must report tickets, or attend driving safety classes—this despite a 2024 incident where a UNC passenger died in a crash at 124 mph with a football player following at high speed. [LINK]

COACHES’ HOT SEAT - WEEK 13 RANKINGS

Week 12 didn't eliminate the pretenders.

It cremated them.

Jonathan Smith's seat went from hot to molten after an 0-7 Big Ten collapse. Shane Beamer orchestrated the most spectacular coaching implosion of the season, leading Texas A&M by 27 at halftime, then getting shut out 28-0 in the second half. Mike Norvell beat Virginia Tech, and it didn't matter. Bill Belichick is learning that six Super Bowl rings don't translate to winning in the ACC.

The excuses are gone.

The "we're building something" narratives have expired.

Week 12 is where athletic directors stop managing perception and start managing reality. Michigan State owes Jonathan Smith $32 million but can't afford NOT to fire him. South Carolina extended Shane Beamer through 2030 last year and now faces a $27.9 million mistake. Florida State is sitting on a $53.3 million buyout and everyone knows Mike Norvell is coaching his final games in Tallahassee.

This is the week where donor calls turn from "give him time" to "what's the plan?"

Where interim ADs provide unintentional job security (see: Dave Aranda). Where four-game winning streaks against FCS opponents (looking at you, Mark Stoops) don't move the needle on job security. Where the gap between "bowl eligible" and "updating your résumé" becomes impossible to ignore.

The portal opens in three weeks.

By Week 12, you will either be showing tangible progress or you will have reached your goal.

Here are the ten coaches racing against the clock.

1. Jonathan Smith - Michigan State Spartans (3-7, 0-7 Big Ten)

Jonathan Smith's seat isn't just hot anymore.

It's molten. Michigan State lost to Penn State 28-10 at home on Saturday, marking their seventh straight defeat and officially eliminating the Spartans from bowl eligibility. That's four consecutive seasons without a bowl game and an 0-7 Big Ten record that has Smith at 8-12 overall since arriving from Oregon State.

The numbers tell the story: Michigan State owes Smith approximately $32-33 million if they fire him now (dropping to $25.4 million after February 1, 2026). That's one of the most expensive buyouts in the Big Ten. But the AD and university president, both hired after Smith arrived, have no strong ties to him and face mounting pressure to act.

National media outlets universally place Smith at the top of coaching hot seat lists. Fan sentiment has turned nearly uniform in calling for a change. Replacement candidate discussions are already widespread, with names like Pat Fitzgerald, James Franklin, and former MSU player Max Bullough circulating.

Smith will almost certainly coach Michigan State's final two games (at Iowa, home vs. Rutgers), but barring a miracle turnaround, he's coaching for his next job, not this one. The question isn't if Michigan State makes a change. It's when they announce it and whether they can afford the coach they want in a historically competitive carousel year.

2. Mike Locksley - Maryland Terrapins (4-6, 1-6 Big Ten)

Mike Locksley just got saved by the very problem that's destroying college football programs: money.

Maryland announced Sunday that Locksley will return for 2026 despite a six-game losing streak that dropped the Terrapins from 4-0 to 4-6. It's the second straight season with only one Big Ten win (1-8 both years) and the 11th consecutive losing season in conference play. Locksley is now 37-47 overall at Maryland and 17-46 in Big Ten games since 2019.

Athletic Director Jim Smith, who didn't hire Locksley and only took over in May, made the decision based on financial reality. Maryland's athletic department has lost $32.7 million over the past five years and struggles to generate significant NIL opportunities. Locksley's buyout would be $13.4 million this year. Smith told ESPN the school is "better off pouring already-spent money into building the roster than into bringing in a new coaching staff."

Translation: We can't afford to fire him.

The announcement came after "Fire Locksley" chants broke out in the student section during the Indiana game. Players defend their coach publicly, but the results speak for themselves. Maryland has won 18 consecutive nonconference games under Locksley but can't compete in Big Ten play, going 14-52 in their last 66 conference games.

Smith promised to "strengthen NIL support" and make investments necessary to compete for Big Ten championships. But that's the same promise every struggling program makes. The reality is Maryland just committed to another year of a coach who's proven he can't win in the Big Ten, all because they can't afford the alternative.

Locksley's pressure doesn't disappear just because he's surviving 2025. If anything, it intensifies. He's coaching on borrowed time in 2026, and everyone knows it.

3. Shane Beamer - South Carolina Gamecocks (3-7, 1-7 SEC)

Shane Beamer just orchestrated the most spectacular coaching collapse of the 2025 season.

Saturday at Texas A&M, South Carolina led 30-3 at halftime. Beamer was filmed celebrating on his way to the locker room, fired up about dominating the No. 3 team in the country. He told ESPN, "We're not surprised. We beat this team by 24 points last year. Our guys didn't come in here just to compete."

Then came the second half.

Texas A&M scored 28 unanswered points. South Carolina was shut out and managed just 76 total yards after halftime. Final score: 31-30, Aggies. It was the largest comeback in Texas A&M program history and the first time since 2004 that an SEC team trailing by 27 points had won (breaking a 286-game streak).

ESPN's Paul Finebaum summed it up perfectly: "Shane Beamer right now just looks like a loser. There's no getting around it."

South Carolina is now 3-7 and guaranteed a losing season. They've lost five straight SEC games. They'll miss a bowl game for the first time under Beamer. And the fanbase is in full revolt. "Fire Beamer" chants have replaced the cheers. Social media is brutal. Even players are rumored to be exploring transfer options.

Here's the financial nightmare: South Carolina extended Beamer through 2030 less than a year ago after a 9-4 season. His buyout is approximately $27.9 million if fired now (65% of remaining contract value). Athletic Director Jeremiah Donati, who took over in December 2024 and didn't hire Beamer, is now stuck with one of college football's most expensive mistakes.

According to CBS Sports sources, the belief earlier this month was that Beamer would get the remainder of this season and the first half of 2026 before being evaluated. But that was before Saturday. This type of historic collapse changes everything. It's not just that they lost. It's HOW they lost. Leading by 27 at halftime and getting outscored 28-0 in the second half suggests fundamental coaching failures: adjustments, preparation, player management, in-game decision making.

Beamer still has home games against Coastal Carolina and Clemson to finish the season. But he's coaching for his professional life now, and everyone knows it.

4. Mike Norvell - Florida State Seminoles (5-5, 2-5 ACC)

Mike Norvell just won a game and it doesn't matter.

Florida State beat Virginia Tech 34-14 on Saturday to improve to 5-5, but the win came against a 3-7 Hokies team that's almost as bad as the Seminoles. It was FSU's final home game of the season, and while Norvell celebrated sending seniors out "the right way," everyone in Tallahassee knows what's coming.

The numbers tell a story of complete program collapse. Since being controversially left out of the 2023 College Football Playoff at 13-0, Florida State is 7-15 overall and 2-12 in ACC play. That's two wins in 14 conference games spanning two seasons. The 2024 season (2-10) was FSU's worst since 1974. The 2025 season started with an upset win over Alabama, climbed to No. 7 in the rankings, and then cratered with five losses in the next six games.

Athletic Director Michael Alford announced in October that Norvell would remain through the end of 2025, but promised a "comprehensive assessment" of the program after the season. Translation: Norvell is coaching his final games at Florida State; everyone has to wait until December to make it official.

Here's why the delay: Money. Norvell's buyout is approximately $53.3 million after this season (85% of the remaining contract through 2031). It's the second-largest buyout in college football history. FSU restructured his contract after last season's disaster, with Norvell taking a $4.5 million pay cut in 2025 to help fund revenue sharing. He can earn it back through bonuses, but if he is fired, he receives the full amount in his buyout.

Norvell has tried to project confidence, delivering a six-minute "championship expectation" rant to the media recently. "I've got elite-level confidence for what's ahead of us," he said. "I know not everybody wants to hear that. I don't care." The problem is the results. FSU is winless on the road this season and hasn't won a road game since November 2023. They need to beat NC State and Florida on the road just to make a bowl game.

Replacement names are already circulating. Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein is the favorite among analysts. The coaching search is happening whether FSU admits it or not. Norvell went from National Coach of the Year in 2023 to unemployed in 2026, all in 24 months.

That's what happens when you go 2-10 followed by 5-5 (at best) at Florida State.

5. Derek Mason - Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-8, 1-5 Conference USA)

Derek Mason took a sabbatical from coaching after the 2022 season to rest, reflect, and spend time with family.

He should have stayed on sabbatical. Mason is in his second season at Middle Tennessee and the program has regressed under his leadership. The Blue Raiders went 3-9 in his first year (2024), and they're currently 2-8 in 2025 with two games remaining. That's 5-17 overall and 3-11 in conference play across two seasons.

Mason replaced Rick Stockstill, who went 113-111 over 18 seasons with 10 bowl appearances and a respectable 82-58 mark in conference games. Mason hasn't come close to matching that standard. Middle Tennessee's two wins this season came against FCS Austin Peay and Missouri State. Every FBS opponent has beaten them, often badly.

The defense, which should be Mason's calling card as a former Stanford defensive coordinator and SEC defensive coordinator at Auburn and Oklahoma State, ranks among the worst in all of college football. They allowed opponents to score at will in 2024 and haven't improved in 2025.

Mason's overall head coaching record is now 30-64 across eight years (seven at Vanderbilt, two at Middle Tennessee). He went 27-55 at Vanderbilt from 2014-2020 and was fired after going winless in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. At least at Vanderbilt, he had SEC resource disadvantages as an excuse. At Middle Tennessee, he doesn't.

The program has a $66 million student-athlete performance center under construction, which was supposed to give Mason the tools to compete for Conference USA titles. Instead, they're competing for last place. Mason signed a five-year contract worth about $1 million per year, which makes him affordable to fire compared to the Power Four coaches on this list.

Middle Tennessee hasn't had a winning season in conference play since 2018. Mason was supposed to fix that. Instead, he's made it worse. Two years, 5-17 record, no improvement in sight. At some point, MTSU has to ask if this experiment is worth continuing or if they should cut their losses and start over.

Again.

6. Dave Aranda - Baylor Bears (5-5, 3-4 Big 12)

Dave Aranda isn't getting fired this season, but not for the reasons you'd hope.

After Saturday's 55-28 home humiliation against Utah, Aranda sits at 5-5 overall and desperately needs one win in the final two games (at Arizona, home vs. Houston) to make a bowl. His defense, which he also coordinates, ranks second-worst in the Big 12 in both scoring (32.6 PPG) and rush defense (190.5 YPG). For a defensive specialist hired specifically for his defensive expertise, that's a damning indictment.

Here's the number that matters most: 21-25. That's Aranda's record at Baylor with his own recruits, excluding the 2020 COVID-19 season and the 2021 championship season, which was built on Matt Rhule's inherited roster. Four years of building his own program have produced a losing record and three seasons below .500.

However, Aranda is still employed because, on November 12, athletic director Mack Rhoades took a leave of absence amid an ongoing investigation into unspecified behavior. Two senior associate ADs are now running things in an interim capacity. According to multiple sources who spoke with SicEm365, Aranda's likelihood of returning in 2026 has "increased substantially" simply because interim ADs don't make coaching changes of this magnitude.

It's not merit. It's institutional paralysis.

Aranda's buyout is estimated at between $17 million and $24 million. Combined with potentially paying out Rhoades and hiring a new AD, Baylor is looking at a financial and timing nightmare. By the time they resolve the AD situation and potentially make a coaching change, the best candidates in this historically active carousel will be gone.

So Aranda gets 2026 as an "audition year" under a new AD who will likely want their own coach unless Aranda dramatically turns things around. Local media is calling the program "carnage." Fans are revolting. But the dysfunction above him is keeping him employed below.

Read the full deep dive on Aranda's situation below for the complete breakdown of how administrative chaos became a coaching lifeline.

7. Luke Fickell - Wisconsin Badgers (5-6, 3-5 Big Ten)

Luke Fickell went from College Football Playoff coach to coaching for his job in three years.

After leading Cincinnati to the CFP in 2021 and posting a 57-18 record over six years with the Bearcats, Fickell was hired by Wisconsin with enormous expectations. Athletic Director Chris McIntosh fired Paul Chryst mid-season in 2022 despite Chryst winning nine of his final 14 regular-season games. Fickell was supposed to elevate Wisconsin to "compete for championships."

Instead, Wisconsin has regressed. Fickell is now 16-19 overall at Wisconsin and 9-15 in Big Ten play heading into the season finale. His teams have produced losing records in two of three full seasons (7-6 in 2023, 5-7 in 2024, currently 5-6 in 2025). The Badgers went scoreless in back-to-back games against Iowa (37-0) and Ohio State (34-0) earlier this season, marking the first time that has happened since 1977.

Wisconsin hasn't won a Big Ten home game in over a calendar year. The Badgers haven't beaten a Power Four opponent in their last 10 games against Power Four competition. They rank 130th nationally in passing offense (140.6 yards per game) and have been shut out or held to 14 points or fewer in most games against quality opponents.

Here's the ironic twist: Chryst was fired after going 0-2 in Big Ten play to start 2022. Fickell has LOST nine of his last 14 regular-season games, yet he just received a contract extension through 2032 and a public vote of confidence from McIntosh. His buyout sits around $27.5 million, making him expensive but not impossible to fire.

McIntosh announced in late October that Fickell will return in 2026, saying, "This season has caused us all to have to look from within." Translation: We can't afford to fire him right now, and we're hoping he turns it around. But Wisconsin fans are openly revolting. Barry Alvarez called them "spoiled rotten" for booing Fickell, which only made things worse.

Fickell's last signature win was Cincinnati's victory over Notre Dame in October 2021. Since then, it's been four years of declining results at the highest level. The quarterback injuries haven't helped (his starter has been available only 30% of the time, according to Indiana's Curt Cignetti); however, at some point, depth and development become the head coach's responsibility as well.

Wisconsin is on track for its second straight losing season and second straight year without a bowl game after 22 consecutive bowl appearances. Fickell gets 2026 to prove he can turn it around, but the pressure will be immense from Day One.

8. Bill Belichick - North Carolina Tar Heels (4-6, 2-4 ACC)

The greatest football coach in history is learning that college football is a different game.

Bill Belichick, winner of six Super Bowls with the Patriots, arrived at North Carolina with enormous fanfare and the expectation that he'd turn the Tar Heels into a playoff contender. Instead, he's 4-6 overall and 0-5 against Power Four opponents. UNC's losses to TCU (48-14), UCF (34-9), and Clemson (38-10) weren't just defeats. They were blowouts that exposed fundamental problems with Belichick's transition to college football.

"It's an unstructured mess," a source told WRAL News in October. "There's no culture, no organization. It's a complete disaster." Reports emerged that Belichick hadn't "had a conversation with most of the guys on defense," who "don't even have his number." The Tar Heels rank last in the ACC in total offense (264.8 yards per game) and scoring (18.8 points per game).

After the Clemson loss, reports surfaced of a locker room fight. Rumors spread that Belichick was looking for a way out. The school canceled a planned documentary on the season. His relationship with his 24-year-old girlfriend, Jordon Hudson (who attends games), became national news. His public feud with Robert Kraft and the Patriots continued to play out in the media.

Belichick's NFL approach hasn't translated. Opponents describe UNC's offensive game plan as "vanilla" and "a copy cat." One defensive assistant said they looked like they "watched some game film, saw a few plays that had success in the past and ran the same things." Against TCU's opening blowout, opposing coaches noted UNC players were "walking during plays on the field."

The Tar Heels showed some improvement recently, winning back-to-back games against Syracuse and Stanford before losing to Wake Forest. But they need to win both of their final two games (at Duke, home vs. NC State) just to make a bowl game. At 72 years old, in his first college job ever, Belichick is discovering that recruiting 18-year-olds, managing NIL, and coaching the portal era requires skills he never needed in the NFL.

UNC's administration sold fans on Belichick leading them to the playoff. Instead, they're fighting for bowl eligibility and dealing with reports of organizational chaos. Belichick told his team after the Syracuse win: "Let's get used to it. We're gonna win a lot more games around here." But first, he has to survive Year One without becoming a cautionary tale about NFL legends who couldn't adjust to college football.

9. Justin Wilcox - California Golden Bears (6-4, 3-3 ACC)

Justin Wilcox sits at 6-4 overall and 3-3 in ACC play, a respectable first season navigating conference realignment.

But the pressure has never been higher.

Fan sentiment has turned decisively against Wilcox, with widespread calls for his dismissal dominating the Cal community. This isn't about the record. It's about nine years of incremental progress that never accumulates into sustained success. Fans aren't demanding perfection. They're demanding evidence that year ten will look different from years one through nine. That evidence doesn't exist.

Then there's Ron Rivera. Cal's new General Manager has given Wilcox conditional support, stating that "another victory or two" in the final stretch will be key in determining his future. That's not a vote of confidence. That's measured pressure from above. Rivera hasn't joined the public outcry, but he's made it clear: improvement isn't optional.

When your GM says your fate depends on winning one or two games in a 6-4 season, the pressure isn't about immediate termination. It's about proving you deserve year ten. Wilcox is coaching under scrutiny from fans who've already moved on and leadership that's watching closely.

The pressure at #9 reflects this reality: survive the finish, or the noise becomes impossible to ignore.

10. Mark Stoops - Kentucky Wildcats (5-5, 2-5 SEC)

Mark Stoops just beat Tennessee Tech 42-10 on Saturday, extending Kentucky's winning streak to four games.

And his pressure level hasn't budged an inch.

The win over an FCS opponent was expected (Kentucky was a 23.5-point favorite), and while Stoops praised "this team's attitude and effort" in his postgame press conference, beating Tennessee Tech doesn't change the fundamental calculus around his job security. Fan sentiment remains sharply divided. One segment wants him gone after thirteen years of middling results. Another points to offensive coordinator instability and NIL chaos as reasons for patience.

What protects Stoops isn't the four-game winning streak. It's the $40.5 million buyout that must be paid in full within 60 days if he's fired. After critical wins at Auburn and over Florida, athletic director Mitch Barnhart and two of the program's most influential boosters were seen enthusiastically embracing Stoops on the field. Last week, Barnhart voiced full support, saying, "Sometimes when you struggle a bit, you're working your way back up the mountain, you take steps, and we're taking steps”.

Kentucky sits one win away from bowl eligibility with two games remaining. The Tennessee Tech blowout keeps momentum alive, but it doesn't answer the real question: Can Stoops sustain this level of success against legitimate competition? Barnhart said he and Stoops will review the program's direction at season's end as always, the same evaluation process that happens every year.

The pressure at #10 reflects this: the four-game streak has eased the immediate crisis, but beating an FCS team doesn't resolve long-term doubts. One more win gets Kentucky to a bowl. What happens after that determines whether this November run bought Stoops real equity or just more time.

WANT TO SEE WHERE YOUR COACH RANKS?

The top 10 are racing against the clock.

But coaching pressure doesn't stop at #10. A $40.5 million buyout protects Mark Stoops (#10) despite 13 years of middling results. Justin Wilcox (#9) is 6-4 but facing conditional support from his GM. Luke Fickell (#7) just got extended through 2032 despite losing 9 of his last 14 games.

Every FBS coach is ranked based on actual pressure, not speculation about who might be fired.

[VIEW ALL 136 FBS COACHES RANKED BY PRESSURE]

DEEP DIVE

Dave Aranda Is 21-25 With His Own Recruits At Baylor And Ranks #6 In Coaching Pressure. Here's Why He'll Keep His Job Anyway: The Athletic Director Is Gone, No One Can Make The Decision, And Institutional Paralysis Just Gave An Underperforming Coach A Lifeline

Dave Aranda isn't keeping his job at Baylor because he's earned another year.

He's keeping it because there's no one at Baylor empowered to fire him.

After Saturday's 55-28 home loss to Utah, Aranda sits at #6 in this week's Coaches Hot Seat pressure rankings. But unlike the five coaches ahead of him, all facing intense scrutiny and pressure, Aranda's situation is uniquely complicated. His performance justifies dismissal, but institutional chaos makes it nearly impossible.

This is the story of how administrative dysfunction becomes a coaching lifeline.

The Utah Train Wreck

Brice Cherry, the Waco Tribune-Herald's sports editor, has seen enough Baylor football to know the difference between a bad loss and "carnage."

Saturday qualified as carnage. Utah torched Baylor for 55 points and 485 yards, including touchdown runs of 64, 67, and 74 yards. For a defensive specialist like Aranda, who also serves as Baylor's defensive coordinator, watching his defense get shredded three straight weeks is damning. The Bears have allowed 42.3 points per game over their last three contests, second-worst in the Big 12.

After the game, Aranda told reporters he felt "gutted."

The locker room was "tough"

Players were "frustrated and angry," Aranda said, echoing their emotions. He took responsibility for defensive failures, noting they used one coverage all night but "all of it wasn't executed the way it needed to be." Then came the real admission: "A fair amount of improvement needs to be done."

That's coach-speak for "we're nowhere close."

The loss dropped Baylor to 5-5 overall and 3-4 in Big 12 play. They need to win one of their final two games (at Arizona or home against Houston) just to make a bowl game. For a program that entered the season as a Big 12 dark horse, that's not disappointing.

It's a complete failure.

The Number Everyone's Ignoring: 21-25

Here's Dave Aranda's actual record at Baylor with his own recruits.

Not the COVID-2020 season (which everyone throws out). Not the 2021 championship season (which was built almost entirely on Matt Rhule's inherited roster). Just the four years of Aranda building his own program: 21-25.

Let's break it down:

• 2020 (2-7): COVID year, doesn't count

• 2021 (12-2): Big 12 championship, Sugar Bowl win, but with Rhule's roster

• 2022-2025 (21-25): Four years of Aranda's program = losing record

The 2021 championship season was the outlier, not the standard.

It was the best season in Baylor history, and it brought Aranda enormous goodwill and a lucrative contract extension through 2029. But it was also built on someone else's foundation. Everything Aranda has built himself (his own recruits, his own culture, his own system) has produced four years of mediocrity and three losing seasons.

The evidence is damning.

The Defensive Specialist Who Can't Defend

Aranda made his reputation as one of college football's elite defensive minds.

He was the architect of LSU's 2019 national championship defense. Wisconsin hired him away to transform its defense. Baylor hired him specifically for his defensive expertise. Yet in 2025, Baylor ranks 2nd-worst in the Big 12 in both scoring defense (32.6 PPG) and rush defense (190.5 YPG), while also ranking near the bottom nationally in missed tackles.

If Aranda were just a defensive coordinator somewhere, he'd already be fired.

The Roster Cliff Is Coming

Baylor's best offensive players are graduating after this season.

Wide receiver Josh Cameron (165 receiving yards against Utah) and Ashtyn Hawkins (119 yards before his ejection) are both gone. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson has been heroic in losses, but he can't do it alone, and his top weapons are leaving. Next year's team will be starting from scratch.

With a coach who's already proven he can't develop his own talent into winners.

The Athletic Director Is Gone

On November 12, Baylor athletic director Mack Rhoades took a leave of absence.

The official reason: "personal reasons." The real story: two separate investigations, one involving a sideline confrontation with tight end Michael Trigg, and a second investigation into unspecified behavior representing a "potential violation of school policies." The first investigation was officially closed. The second is ongoing, with no timeline for resolution.

Rhoades also stepped down from his role as chair of the College Football Playoff selection committee.

Two senior associate ADs are now running the athletic department in an interim capacity. No one knows when (or if) Rhoades is coming back. No one knows when a permanent AD will be hired. And no one knows what any of this means for Dave Aranda.

Except everyone knows exactly what it means.

The Relationship Was Already Broken

Even before the leave of absence, Rhoades and Aranda had "heated words" after the Trigg confrontation incident.

The AD who hired Aranda in 2020 and gave him an extension through 2029 after the 2021 championship was already at odds with his head coach. Now that AD is gone, under investigation, with no timeline for return. Rhoades was Aranda's key ally.

Without him, Aranda has no protection.

What Multiple Sources Are Saying

According to SicEm365 (Baylor's primary insider site), the likelihood that Dave Aranda will return as Baylor's head coach in 2026 has "increased substantially" due to Rhoades' absence.

Not because Aranda has earned it. Because interim ADs don't make coaching changes of this magnitude. Influential boosters and insiders confirm that unless there are "extreme on-field embarrassments" in the final two games, Aranda will coach Baylor in 2026, mainly by default.

Sources describe this as Aranda receiving "one last stay of execution."

He'll need to impress a new AD in 2026 to keep the job long-term. Most expect a "full reset of football leadership" once a permanent AD is hired, unless Aranda turns things around dramatically. In other words, 2026 is an audition year.

But auditions usually mean you haven't gotten the part yet.

The Timeline Nightmare

Hiring a permanent athletic director takes time.

Baylor must form a search committee, retain a search firm, conduct interviews with candidates, perform background checks, and negotiate contracts. That process can take weeks, possibly even months. Best-case scenario: Baylor has a new AD by late January or early February.

Now add the coaching timeline if that new AD wants to make a change:

• New AD evaluates program: 2 to 4 weeks

• Decides on Aranda's future: 1 week

• Fires Aranda if necessary: 1 week

• Conducts coaching search: 3 to 4 weeks

You can expect a new coach to be hired by mid-to-late February at the earliest.

By then:

• The transfer portal windows have closed

• Recruiting is essentially over

• Spring practice is about to start

The Coaching Carousel Is Leaving Baylor Behind

The 2025-26 coaching carousel is one of the most active in recent memory.

Major programs have already made moves. Quality candidates like Jon Sumrall (Tulane), Jeff Traylor (UTSA), Willie Fritz (Houston), and Lance Leipold (Kansas) are getting snatched up. Every day Baylor waits is a day they fall further behind in the coaching market.

But they can't move.

They have no permanent AD to make the hire. They have no one to run a search. They're stuck watching quality candidates sign elsewhere while Dave Aranda coaches by default.

By the time a new AD is in place and makes a decision, the best coaches will be gone.

The $20 Million Question

Dave Aranda's buyout is estimated between $17 million and $24 million.

Baylor is a private university, so exact contract terms aren't public; however, multiple sources indicate that his annual salary is north of $4.7 million, with the deal running through 2029. That's a massive financial commitment. Now add Mack Rhoades' situation. If Rhoades doesn't return, Baylor may be paying him to go away. Then they have to pay a new AD. Then, if they want to fire Aranda, they're paying him too.

The financial reality:

• Rhoades' payout: TBD

• New AD salary: $1 to 2M annually

• Aranda's buyout: $17 to 24M

• New coach salary plus staff: $5 to 8M annually

Baylor's looking at a potential $25-30 million expense just to reset their athletic department and football program.

Can they afford it? Probably. But athletic department budgets aren't unlimited, and boosters are already frustrated by years of mediocrity. Asking them to foot that bill without a clear plan (and without a permanent AD to sell the vision) is a tough ask.

Money talks, and right now it's saying "wait."

Why Aranda Ranks #6

Dave Aranda sits at #6 in this week's Coaches Hot Seat pressure rankings.

He's behind Jonathan Smith (Michigan State), Mike Locksley (Maryland), Shane Beamer (South Carolina), Mike Norvell (Florida State), and Derek Mason (Middle Tennessee). Interestingly, due to this year's unprecedented coaching upheaval and competitive marketplace, many of these coaches may actually return next season despite the intense pressure. Their situations have clarity, even if that clarity doesn't lead to termination.

Aranda's situation is chaotic.

The coaches ahead of him know where they stand

Beamer knows South Carolina fans and boosters are furious after blowing a 30-3 halftime lead to Texas A&M. Norvell knows FSU's 2-9 season is a catastrophe. Smith knows Michigan State fans are calling for change. They face the highest pressure and scrutiny of any FBS program.

Aranda doesn't know anything.

He doesn't know if Rhoades is coming back. He doesn't know when a new AD will be hired. He doesn't know if he's coaching on borrowed time or if he actually has job security. That uncertainty might be worse than just getting fired.

What makes Aranda's pressure unique

His on-field performance justifies termination. His administrative situation prevents termination. He's getting another year by default, not by merit. That extra year might make things worse, not better.

That's why he ranks #6, and is trending upward.

The Historical Question: Has Anyone Survived This?

The answer is yes and no.

Yes: Kyle Whittingham at Utah

In the late 2010s, Utah underwent significant athletic department leadership changes, including turnover at the AD and the president. Despite questions about program direction and reduced budget support, Whittingham stayed on, stabilized the program, and led Utah to Pac-12 titles even as the institution found its footing.

Whittingham survived because he had a long track record of success and strong relationships across the university.

No: Art Briles at Baylor

It's not lost on us that the most relevant historical precedent also happened at Baylor.

Art Briles experienced profound institutional upheaval at Baylor during the 2016 sexual assault scandal. The president, AD, and numerous officials either resigned or were fired. Despite previous on-field success, Briles was dismissed as the university reset its culture and leadership.

Briles was fired because the institution lost all trust in him.

Where does Aranda fit?

He's not Whittingham. He doesn't have a long track record of success, just one outlier season. And he's obviously not Briles. There's no scandal here, just performance issues. Aranda is somewhere in between: a coach who's underperforming during administrative chaos, getting another year not because he's earned it, but because no one can make a different decision right now.

That's limbo, not security.

What Happens Next

Here's what we know:

Aranda will almost certainly return in 2026, barring complete embarrassment in the final two games. It's a "stay of execution," not a vote of confidence. Sources describe 2026 as an "audition year." A new AD will likely want their own coach unless Aranda dramatically turns things around.

The 2026 season is make-or-break.

Best-case scenario

Baylor wins out, makes a bowl game, wins the bowl, and finishes 8-5. Aranda gets aggressive in the transfer portal again, lands another strong recruiting class, and enters 2026 with momentum. He goes 9-3 or better in 2026, proves he can sustain success with his own recruits, and earns the new AD's trust.

Possible, but unlikely.

Likely scenario

Baylor splits the final two games, finishes 6-6, and makes a mediocre bowl game. Aranda gets 2026 by default. The team struggles again (7-5 or worse), and the new AD makes a change after next season. But by then, the coaching market is different, and Baylor's a year further behind in the Big 12 arms race.

This is what institutional paralysis looks like.

Worst-case scenario

Baylor loses out, misses a bowl game, and finishes 5-7. Fan and booster revolt intensifies. The interim ADs feel pressure to act but can't or won't. Aranda limps into 2026 as a “dead man walking.” The new AD fires him after one season, and Baylor has to start over in 2027 with a depleted roster and two wasted years.

Chaos breeds more chaos.

The Bottom Line

Dave Aranda ranks #6 in Coaches Hot Seat pressure this week not because his job performance is the sixth-worst in college football.

It's because his situation is the sixth-most complicated. He's underperforming on the field. His defensive expertise isn't translating to results. His own recruits have produced a losing record over four years. His fanbase is revolting. Local media is calling his program "carnage."

But he's surviving (for now) because Baylor's athletic department is in crisis.

There's no permanent leadership to make a decision. The financial and timing realities make a change nearly impossible this cycle. Coaches usually get fired for losing too many games. Aranda might keep his job because Baylor's administration is too dysfunctional to fire him.

That's not a win.

That's institutional paralysis creating a coaching lifeline that benefits no one: not Aranda, not the players, not the fans, and indeed not Baylor football. The question isn't "Should Dave Aranda be fired?" The question is, "Can Baylor actually fire Dave Aranda?"

And right now, the answer is no.

THAT’S A WRAP

Week 12 separated the coaches who survive from those who won't make it to December.

Jonathan Smith is coaching Michigan State's final two games but everyone knows he's gone. Shane Beamer blew a 27-point halftime lead and turned a career-defining win into the most spectacular collapse of the season. Mike Norvell beat Virginia Tech and it changed nothing about his trajectory at Florida State. Bill Belichick's NFL genius isn't translating to college football, and 20% of his roster has been cited for speeding or reckless driving since October.

The portal opens in three weeks.

Athletic directors are making decisions, not just managing perception. Donor calls have shifted from "give him time" to "what's the plan?" Buyout conversations have moved from theoretical to tactical. The coaches still standing after this week are either legitimately safe or surviving on institutional paralysis (looking at you, Dave Aranda).

On Friday, we take a deep dive into Shane Beamer's situation at South Carolina.

How do you blow a 30-3 halftime lead against the No. 3 team in the country? How does a $27.9 million extension less than a year ago turn into one of college football's most expensive mistakes? And what does an athletic director who didn't hire you do when the fanbase is in full revolt and the historic collapse is playing on an endless loop?

We'll break down the numbers, the timeline, and whether Beamer can survive what might be the defining loss of the 2025 coaching carousel.

See you Friday.