WEEK 7 - COACHES HOT SEAT RANKINGS

Here's How Hot Your Coach's Seat Really Is:

Forget what the athletic director said in that carefully worded press conference. Ignore the "full support" statements that always come right before a firing. We've ranked all 136 FBS head coaches by how much pressure they're under—and the top 20 are coaching with the heat turned all the way up.

Below is the grid. The higher the number, the hotter the seat. The closer to #1, the closer to the edge.

Some of these coaches will survive the season. Most won't make it through without serious questions being asked. And if your team's head coach is in the top 10? Start following search firm Twitter accounts, because December is going to get interesting.

Click here to see the full rankings of all 136 FBS coaches. Want the detailed breakdown of why the top 10 are in serious trouble? Read the write-ups here.

DEEP DIVE

The Seats We're Watching: 4 Coaches Hidden in Plain Sight With Everything to Lose

Why These Four Coaches?

Our weekly hot seat rankings track all 136 FBS coaches, but this week we're zeroing in on four stories that demand your attention.

Mike Norvell (#3) - Everyone thinks Florida State's early wins mean the crisis is over. They're wrong. A 15-game ACC losing streak doesn't disappear because you beat cupcakes.

Bill Belichick (#19) - The greatest NFL coach in history is trying to prove his system works in college football. Nobody knows if it will.

James Franklin (#6) - He's been on the hot seat for eight years. He's won enough to keep his job but never enough to silence the critics. How long can this last?

Lincoln Riley (#28) - USC invested over $500 million in infrastructure. Riley is regressing every season. The next three games could rocket him into the top 10.

Each coach represents a different type of pressure. Each faces a different reckoning. And each tells us something about what it takes to survive - or fail - in modern college football.

Mike Norvell (2) - The Forgotten Disaster

Everyone thinks Florida State is "fine" now.

They're not paying attention.

Three wins over Florida, Kent State, and an FCS team have created an illusion of recovery. The national media moved on. The hot seat conversations shifted elsewhere. Mike Norvell seems to have escaped scrutiny.

But here's what nobody's talking about:

Florida State hasn't won an ACC game since November 2023. That's a 15-game conference losing streak spanning two full seasons. The Seminoles are 0-2 in ACC play right now. The streak is alive and getting longer.

Think about that timeline:

• 2023: 13-1, ACC Champions

• 2024: 2-10 overall, 1-7 in conference

• 2025: 3-2 overall, 0-2 in conference

This isn't a one-year blip. This is a two-year organizational collapse at one of college football's blue bloods.

The Virginia loss? People called Virginia "resurgent," as if that makes it acceptable. The Miami loss? In-state rival thriving in the same conference where you can't win a single game.

Here's the truth nobody wants to say out loud:

Beating bad teams doesn't erase a 15-game conference losing streak. The cupcakes created a cover. The real problem never went away.

Mike Norvell is sitting at #3 on our hot seat rankings, and he might not be high enough.

Bill Belichick (17) - The Legend's Gamble

The greatest coach in NFL history is coaching college football.

And nobody knows if it will work.

Bill Belichick at North Carolina isn't just a storyline. It's an experiment that will redefine what we think is possible in college sports.

Six Super Bowl rings. Two decades of NFL dominance. A coaching tree that spans the entire league.

Now he's recruiting 17-year-olds and dealing with NIL collectives.

Here's why this matters more than you think:

Belichick's success was built on total organizational control. In the NFL, he drafted players, designed systems, and controlled every variable. In college? He's navigating transfer portals, boosters, and teenagers who can leave at any time.

The game has changed. But has Belichick?

Early returns are mixed. North Carolina is competitive but not dominant. The recruiting pitch is compelling - "learn from the greatest ever" - but does that translate to wins in the ACC?

The question isn't whether Belichick can coach.

The question is whether his NFL system translates to an environment he's never operated in before. Can the greatest control-freak coach in football history succeed in the most chaotic era of college sports?

We're watching at #19 on our hot seat rankings because if this fails, it fails spectacularly. And if it works? It changes everything we thought we knew about coaching transitions.

The legend's gamble is also our gamble.

James Franklin (7) - The Eternal Question

James Franklin has been on the hot seat for eight years.

And he's probably safe for eight more.

This is the Penn State paradox: Franklin is simultaneously too successful to fire and not successful enough to satisfy anyone.

Look at the resume:

• 10+ win seasons regularly

• Consistent bowl appearances

• Top recruiting classes

• Program stability

Now look at what's missing:

• Big Ten championships: 1 (2016)

• College Football Playoff appearances: 0

• Wins against Ohio State when it matters: Rarely

• National title contention: Never quite there

Franklin operates in the cruelest zone of college football - the "good but not great" purgatory where you're winning enough to keep your job but not enough to stop the whispers.

Penn State fans don't want to fire him. They just want him to be better. Athletic directors don't want to replace him. They just wish he'd beat Ohio State more than once every four years.

Here's what makes Franklin's situation unique:

He's created a floor so high that Penn State can't justify moving on. But he's also created a ceiling so visible that fans can't help but stare at it.

The seat is always warm, never hot. Always questions, never answers. Always "next year," never "this year."

At #6 on our rankings, Franklin represents something bigger than wins and losses. He's the coach every program fears becoming - perpetually good, permanently stuck.

The question isn't "Will Penn State fire James Franklin?"

The question is "How long can both sides live with good enough?"

Lincoln Riley (28) - The $500 Million Reckoning

USC has invested over $500 million in football infrastructure.

Lincoln Riley is 26-14 and regressing every single year.

Something doesn't add up.

As we detailed in our preseason analysis, Riley's trajectory at USC tells a troubling story:

• 2022: 11-3 (promising debut)

• 2023: 8-5 (regression begins)

• 2024: 7-6 (the wheels come off)

• 2025: ???

The Trojan Family - USC's quiet, reasonable supporters (as opposed to the sunshine pumpers or the doom and gloomers) - is done making excuses. They've watched Riley call 50+ passes in three separate games last season (something he never did at Oklahoma). They've seen USC go 0-3 in those games. They've watched the offensive genius abandon the balanced attack that made him elite.

Here's what makes Riley's situation unique:

USC gave him everything. A $1 million GM from Notre Dame. The #1 recruiting class for 2026. A $225 million practice facility. Every resource a coach could want.

And the defense - the unit that was supposed to be fixed under D'Anton Lynn - is still the weak spot. The grumbling about Lynn is growing louder. The infrastructure is there, but the results aren't.

Riley has run out of excuses.

Michigan. Notre Dame. Nebraska.

This three-game stretch isn't just about survival - it's about proving whether unlimited resources and organizational excellence can overcome strategic stubbornness. Riley's pass-happy tendencies cost USC games last season. His lack of trust in the run game made the Trojans one-dimensional in a physical Big Ten.

The question isn't whether USC has invested enough in Riley's success.

The question is whether Riley can adapt to the conference that exposed him.

At #28 on our rankings, he's trending toward the top 10 fast. FanDuel set USC's win total at 7.5, precisely what the team achieved in 2024. The oddsmakers see stagnation. The Trojan Family sees regression.

Going 1-2 in this stretch doesn't just put Riley on the hot seat. It puts a $500 million investment under a microscope.

The next three weeks will tell us if USC bought a champion or just an expensive disappointment.

 Deep dive this week…

THAT’S A WRAP

We've given you the full picture: 136 coaches ranked, the top 10 breaking down in real-time, and 4 names you need to watch.

Some of these coaches will turn things around. Most won't. And by the time we hit November, this list is going to look very different—because college football doesn't wait for anyone to figure it out.

Want more college football insights? Check out the Targeting Winners podcast, where we break down the games, the storylines, and the chaos that makes this sport unforgettable.

This Friday, we're dropping our game preview breaking down three matchups that will directly impact the hot seat rankings. These aren't just big games—these are career-defining moments. Win, and you buy yourself time. Lose, and the buyout conversations start Monday morning.

See you Friday.

The heat's only getting hotter.